(Kitco Commentary) - Bitcoin respected historical support, but crypto's dollar market caps still look fragile. Reversal signals are building selectively, and I am increasingly optimistic without calling a confirmed bottom.
Bitcoin tests support while Ethereum stretches lower
Bitcoin tested and respected historical support at Tuesday's low, overlapping the daily Slow line in my assessment. It is finally near the bottom of the Cloud, and the other bullish reversal signals are making me more excited for the reversal I have been expecting. That is my outlook, not a confirmed bottom. ETH fell harder Tuesday to the rounded 0.618 Fibonacci level at 2,041. A third lower price low came with a third higher RSI low. It could still fall further: the fair-value gap starts at 1,906. Everything below the Cloud remains an opportunity zone to me, not a guarantee against another leg down. ETH/BTC confirmed a Tuesday TBO Breakdown while oversold again, with a lower price low and higher RSI low. Its MA Dump flags are oversold context in my reading; a relative-strength bounce would not automatically mean an ETH gain in dollars.
Dominance divergence improves, but confirmation is selective
Combined stablecoin dominance is still climbing in daily bullish consolidation. Weekly dominance is just above Fast after five green weeks; I think a reversal is due. That is an expectation, not proof of money flowing into crypto. BTC.D pushed higher Tuesday and its RSI became just barely overbought; the four-hour chart printed a second TBO Breakout with falling RSI. Further Bitcoin-share gains would mean more pain for ALTs in my view, even as reversal signals form. ETH.D went barely oversold again, Top 10 dominance went deeper, and OTHERS.D held sideways. TOTALE50.D confirmed a TBT Bullish Divergence. Its slightly downward Slow line weakens the signal's weight; the August bullish and October bearish examples are historical context, not a promise of repetition. TOTALE100.D is only working on a bullish divergence on today's candle: it will not be confirmed until today's candle closes. Dominance is market share, not spot price. These signals cannot be substituted for the dollar market-cap charts.
Dollar market caps remain the uncomfortable counterweight
TOTALE, total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins, pierced short-term support Tuesday and closed at that level, then opened today's candle below it. That is a dangerous spot even though I still see an opportunity zone. TOTALE50's market-cap chart is not sharing its dominance counterpart's improvement: it is at the bottom of the Cloud. Its bullish RSI reset has already happened and the chart is above spaghetti support, but I am waiting for a Close Short, which would be a very strong bullish reversal signal to me. It has not arrived in this assessment. TOTALE100 remains very strong bearish, with the same RSI qualities as TOTALE50; that does not turn its dollar chart into a confirmed reversal. OTHERS wicked below the Cloud Tuesday and still is not oversold. TOTAL3ESBTC confirmed both a TBO Breakdown and oversold RSI, at historical TBO Support from which it previously bounced. OTHERS/BTC closed below the Cloud in strong bearish mode. I remain bullish and optimistic, but market share, absolute capitalization and performance against Bitcoin are different questions.
Stocks hold up, while the dollar keeps fighting
DXY whipped back above its Cloud Tuesday and tested Resistance again. I still expect a drop below the Cloud, but the dollar is fighting that outlook and forex pairs are getting whipsawed; USD/JPY is moving toward its Cloud top. S&P futures remain strong bearish below the Cloud, yet held up remarkably well in my view after hotter-than-expected inflation/CPI numbers. I still think the market is irrationally oversold and will recover higher; that is a forecast, not an all-clear. NDX is on track for a weekly bullish RSI reset, not a confirmed one. Russell 2000 confirmed its third Close Short. NVDA reached historical TBO Support just below $167 and confirmed the move as Mature and Extended. I see a bounce due and an attractive accumulation area, not a proven bottom or a personal executed trade. TSLA and SPCX were up after hours, while VIX cooled further Tuesday. Nikkei is moving back toward Fast for a V-shaped recovery bounce; Shanghai looks overextended on the bearish drop. Hang Seng confirmed a bearish RSI reset, so I expect it to fall from here. KOSPI confirmed a second bullish RSI Reset Tuesday. Oil wicked lower Tuesday; I still expect a bounce to Fast to fulfill the previous Close Long. A Close Long is the named chart event, not an Open Short or evidence of my holdings.
Gold pulls back as relative metal signals turn two-sided
Gold pulled back sharply Tuesday after confirming a Close Short; I still see a very strong bearish chart. A Close Short is not an Open Long or proof of an opposite trade. Silver is working on a second TBT Bullish Divergence today, which now has my attention, but that developing divergence is not confirmed. Platinum pulled back with the other markets but is holding up well; copper retraced hard. Uranium's reversal from Fast reinforces my reminder to take profits there. PAXG/BTC has a six-day overbought RSI streak. Two new four-hour TBT Bearish Divergences are bearish reversal warnings; they disagree with the macro trend, and Slow-line direction matters to their weight in my assessment. BTC/Gold shows the bullish inverse, and confirmed a bullish RSI reset Tuesday. Those are relative charts, not a guarantee of a Bitcoin dollar rally or a gold dollar decline.
ALT reversal candidates still need their own conditions
XRP confirmed a Mature marker Tuesday and remains deeply oversold, making it a better dip-buy candidate in my view, not a confirmed bottom. ZEC fell more than 10% and confirmed an Open Short; HYPE is below its daily Cloud with RSI nearing oversold. DOGE printed a second TBO Breakdown Tuesday and fell below the August 1 low. XMR confirmed a Close Long Tuesday; October 9's similar signal marked a pivot higher, but a historical example does not promise the same result. CC is still holding Support. AVAX is working on a second bullish divergence today; closing above Fast would be a very good sign, not a completed trigger. HBAR confirmed the move as Mature at historical TBO Support, not a confirmed recovery. GRAM's 9.52% pop does not change its strong bearish chart. WLD remains in a six-day oversold streak, getting closer to historical support. ICP printed a bullish divergence and returned to Fast, with OBV above its moving average. PEPE is overbought and nearing Resistance; the move is getting close to exhausted. RENDER confirmed a bullish divergence. NIGHT is pressing 0.5 Fibonacci and INJ 0.382; closing above those levels on the day would be very bullish, not something already achieved. PIEVERSE pulled back after yesterday's RSI 96.88 extreme and added a four-hour bearish divergence. It could snap back above 1.0 Fibonacci, but remains crazily overextended. AR printed a bullish divergence Tuesday with an ascending Slow line. FLOKI still holds TBO Support in this dated assessment. AXS is Mature and overdue for a Cloud bounce in my view; the same applies to FARTCOIN. BEAM closed another 3% higher, and I expect it to move toward TBO Resistance at 0.0057. None of those expectations removes the need for confirmation and risk limits.
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