The 12 Polymarket accounts that named the men’s Ballon d’Or top five in exact order did not bet from random corners of the internet. Three of the most active were funded from the same cryptocurrency wallet, according to the integrity firm BETINT, with a fourth linked to the cluster by timing and betting patterns rather than by wallet. The four accounts combined for around $32,500 in profit.

The wider probe is bigger. The 12 accounts between them wagered roughly €250,000 and cleared nearly €200,000, calling Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi in that precise order on prediction markets days before the ceremony in London.

France Football, which organises the Ballon d’Or, filed a complaint with the French police after being alerted to the betting pattern by the French outlet Upside.

“The integrity of the Ballon d’Or is an absolute priority for France Football. We take these allegations of results being leaked in advance and potentially criminal betting activity very seriously. Investigations are under way to establish the facts and determine who may be responsible,” the organisers said.

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A $6,000 bet with no news behind it

The linked cluster did not stop at the exact top five. On 9 October they put $6,000 on Mbappé finishing ahead of Yamal, pushing that specific market from 27 cents to 46 cents without any news breaking to explain the swing, BETINT found.

Dan Zimmermann, co-founder of BETINT, told ingame.com that choosing a shared funding wallet cut both ways for the bettors.

“From a crypto forensic analyst perspective, it’s a very half-assed effort,” Zimmermann said.

The account pattern reinforces the forensics. All 12 accounts were created between 1 October and 20 October, seven of them never placed a bet in any other market, and six made their first wager within 15 minutes of being registered.

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Prediction markets sit outside EU abuse rules

Polymarket has been blocked in France since 2024, when the national gambling regulator ANJ ordered internet service providers to cut off access and ruled that the platform’s contracts amounted to unlicensed gambling. French users can still reach it through a VPN.

Prediction markets fall in a regulatory gap beyond France. The EU’s Market Abuse Regulation covers financial instruments traded on regulated venues, not blockchain-based event markets, and Polymarket remains reachable in several other EU states, including Germany and Spain.

Pascal Ferré, France Football’s editor-in-chief, had said before the ceremony that since 2024 the Ballon d’Or winner is no longer informed in advance and that the result is shared with as few people as possible until the night itself.

The French police investigation remains open, with the SCCJ gambling unit examining the account activity and the cryptocurrency flows behind it.

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