• Bitcoin barely reacted to the Nasdaq 100’s 3.4% jump, and the next day fell more sharply than U.S. stocks.
  • Since the start of the year, bitcoin has fallen by about 16%, while the S&P 500 is up 10%.
  • Analysts link the shift in bitcoin’s behavior to rising competition for speculative capital and the spread of institutional trading strategies.

Bitcoin is increasingly lagging behind the stock market. Even as tech stocks rebounded, the asset showed almost no upside, while outflows from U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) topped $1 billion over five trading sessions. This was reported by Bloomberg.

Journalists noted that the market’s moves at the start of the week were particularly telling. On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.4% after the prior week’s tech sell-off. However, bitcoin barely responded to the renewed risk appetite. When stocks started falling again the next day, the leading cryptocurrency posted even weaker performance.

According to Bloomberg, since the start of the year bitcoin has lost about 16%, while the S&P 500 has gained 10%. The underperformance also persists over one-month and six-month horizons.

AI and crypto derivatives compete for capital

Market participants cite several reasons that may have weakened demand for bitcoin. These include higher returns in alternative assets, the fallout from large-scale liquidations in the crypto market, and the Binance hack, the report said.

At the same time, speculative capital has not left the market — it is rotating into other areas. In particular, artificial intelligence remains an attractive sector for investors, despite worsening sentiment in recent weeks. In addition, platforms like Hyperliquid offer traders alternative tools for leveraged trading.

Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, believes bitcoin is no longer the primary asset for investors seeking high risk. In her view, it faces much stronger competition from AI projects and small-cap companies.

Another factor behind the shift in dynamics may be institutional participation. Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, told Bloomberg that the growth of derivatives and more sophisticated hedging strategies is gradually changing bitcoin’s volatility profile and smoothing out sharp price swings.

At the same time, historically, bitcoin has lagged behind the stock market during periods of risk-off sentiment and deleveraging. This was most evident in 2018 and 2022. However, the current weakness is raising additional concerns, as the trend began taking shape back in 2025, when bitcoin was setting new all-time highs but still underperformed equities, the journalists noted.

FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that such investor caution is creating the conditions for another leg down in prices.

As a reminder, earlier Wintermute warned about the risk of bitcoin falling to $68,000.