US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment data have been released. Here's the latest.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, ended October, historically known as a bull month, with a decline. Having failed in its attempts to break above $80,000, whether the decline for BTC will continue is being closely watched, while global and cryptocurrency markets are focused today on critical employment data from the US.
The main reason for this is the impact of the job market on the Fed’s monetary policy.
The announced figures, whether significantly above or below expectations, could increase volatility in risky assets, including the Fed’s interest rate policy, US bond yields, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin. Conversely, a lower-than-expected employment figure would signal a weakening US labor market, strengthening expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates stable or even lower them. In this scenario, a potential decline in the dollar and bond yields could support demand for risky assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, stronger-than-expected employment figures could signal the resilience of the US economy, reinforcing expectations that the Fed might reduce speculation about interest rate cuts or keep rates unchanged and create tighter financial conditions, potentially putting short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin.
At this point, the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in December is priced at 69.4%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged is priced at 30.6%.
The data released for October is as follows:
Non-Farm Payrolls Data: Reported 165k – Expectation 65k – Previous 29k
Unemployment Rate: Announced 4.1% – Expected 4.2% – Previous 4.2%
Bitcoin’s reaction after the data was released was as follows:
*This is not investment advice.
