Cardano is sliding nearly three times faster than Bitcoin, and a missing ETF is only part of the story. Supply math, a fading user base, and one price level could decide whether ADA ever climbs back toward $1.
The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
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Cardano (CRYPTO:ADA) has fallen 24.5% over the 30 days to November 8, 2026, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has dropped 8.6%. That makes Cardano’s decline nearly three times Bitcoin’s, and the worst 30-day showing among the top 20 cryptocurrencies.
ADA trades at $0.179, down 7.2% over the past week. That’s below its lowest close in the past month, $0.181 on November 5, and well below its 30-day high close of $0.252 on October 11. ADA also trades 94.2% below its $3.09 all-time high from September 2021.
Investors are watching the key price levels of $0.25, $0.50, and $1. Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello set a $2.60 target in a report dated August 20. But can ADA bounce back?
Why Cardano Fell Harder Than Bitcoin
One major reason for ADA’s deeper decline is the lack of a U.S. spot ETF, a fund that holds the coin directly. Unlike Bitcoin, which has steady institutional buyers through its ETFs, Cardano lacks that kind of support. Grayscale withdrew its Cardano Trust ETF registration on August 7, two days before ADA became eligible under the SEC’s generic listing standards.
The market has been tough on altcoins, meaning cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, in general. Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) fell 10.4% over the same month. However, ADA’s drop was steeper, pointing to weak demand specific to Cardano.
ADA also missed the summer rally. Over the last 90 days, Bitcoin gained 18.5% while ADA lost 6.1%, so ADA follows Bitcoin down but struggles to rise when the market improves. Network activity shows the same weakness, with Cardano’s active addresses down from a peak of 3.6 million in November 2021 to about 189,900, according to an August report. Fewer active users means fewer natural buyers when markets turn bearish.
What It Would Take to Reach $0.25, $0.50 and $1
Cardano’s market cap is $6.73 billion, with about 37.58 billion ADA in circulation against a maximum supply of 45 billion. That ongoing supply growth makes every price level harder to reach.
At $0.25, ADA would trade near its October 11 close and above its 50-day average of $0.23. The last time ADA traded above $0.50 was in November 2025, when it closed at $0.592 on November 10, 2025. Reaching $1 from here would take a gain of more than 5.5 times, as our look at what 10,000 ADA could be worth by 2030 shows over a longer horizon.
Supply growth complicates the road back to $1. ADA closed at $1.18 on January 3, 2018, with a market cap of $30.58 billion. Yet $1 today would require a market cap of about $37.57 billion, as our analysis of ADA’s climb back to $1 detailed. Gambardello’s target applies the same math, since matching ADA’s former peak market value with more coins outstanding works out to a price below its $3.09 high.
Cardano has bounced back from steep declines before. After closing at $1.18 in early 2018, ADA plummeted 97.7% to $0.0276 by December 2018 and hit an all-time low of $0.01925 in March 2020, before surging to $3.09 in September 2021. That recovery took a full bull market and nearly three years.
Catalysts That Could Lift ADA Off the Floor
A New Spot ETF Filing
ADA became eligible for a fast-track ETF listing on August 9, when its six-month CME futures seasoning period ended, the stretch a coin’s regulated futures must trade before spot funds qualify. However, it reached that point without a live Grayscale registration. A new filing from a major issuer could signal a return of institutional demand.
A Broader Altcoin Rally
Bitcoin held 59.5% of the crypto market in late October, so most money still flows into BTC. When Bitcoin’s share falls, altcoins typically gain. In November 2024, ADA opened at $0.34 and closed the month at $1.08, showing what a market rotation can do. Our analysis of how far ADA trails its high shows how heavily Cardano relies on a broad altcoin uptrend.
Will ADA Ever Recover?
We believe ADA could hit $0.25 within the next few months, though $1 looks unlikely before 2028 unless an ETF is approved and a full altcoin season arrives. First, ADA must consistently close above its 20-day, 200-day, and 50-day averages of $0.20, $0.21, and $0.23, then break its 90-day high close of $0.270 from October 5. Only then does $0.50 become realistic, likely with a new ETF filing and a falling Bitcoin share.
Our Cardano vs. XRP outlook for 2027 runs similar math. Meanwhile, ADA holders can earn about 3% a year by staking their coins, assigning them to a network pool in exchange for new ADA. A weekly close above $0.27 could set ADA on the path to recovery, but if it can’t hold above $0.18, it risks falling toward its June 28 low close of $0.144.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
