Coinbase just tanked after earnings, but the selloff may be punishing the stock for the wrong reasons. The real question is whether a quiet revenue shift happening inside the company changes everything about where COIN goes from here.
Price Targets desk. Editor: Vandita Jadeja.
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Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN | COIN Price Prediction) trades at $142.21 this morning, down 11.45% in today’s session after third-quarter results. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Coinbase is $205.24, meaning 44.3% upside over the next 12 months.
I read today’s drop as a sentiment overshoot.
Adjusted EBITDA rose 60% sequentially to $333M, prediction markets topped $200M in annualized revenue, and Coinbase gained trading market share for a 4th consecutive quarter, reaching 10.7%. Our 70% confidence is moderate-to-high, tempered by a beta of 3.409.
Revenue Miss and a Bitcoin Pullback Push Coinbase Toward Its 52-Week Low
Shares are down 15.9% over the past week, 25.16% over the past month, and 37.11% year to date, sitting just above the 52-week low of $139.11 and well below the $361.40 high.
Q3 revenue of $1.22B fell 35% year over year, barely missing estimates. GAAP EPS of $2.51 beat the $0.07 consensus, but it included $715M of crypto investment gains. Adjusted net income was $77.7M. Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) slid 5.42% over 24 hours, and fourth-quarter transaction revenue reached only about $165M through October 25.
Why Bulls See $324 Within Reach
The bull case reaches $324.78. The “Everything Exchange” strategy is working: prediction markets and derivatives made up about 25% of transaction revenue. Stablecoin revenue rose 5% to $307M, and CFO Alesia Haas noted, “We capture about 50% of the overall economics.”
The Deribit integration finished in October 2026, and agentic trading volume is growing “something like 20% week over week.” Wall Street leans bullish with 4 Strong Buy and 19 Buy ratings, supported by $2B in remaining buyback authorization.
Thin Spot Volumes Are the Risk Worth Watching
The bear case lands at $181.23, still above today’s price, though a break below $139.11 would test that view. Spot volume fell 6% sequentially and derivatives volume dropped 11%. Stablecoin income is rate-sensitive, and prediction-market regulation remains uncertain.
Operating income fell 87.17% to $61.67M. Management also cut its full-year adjusted expense range to $4.15B-$4.30B and confirmed positive adjusted EBITDA in all market conditions.
How Coinbase Compares to Robinhood and CME Group
Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) competes directly in retail crypto and prediction markets. Its crypto revenue fell 38% in Q2, so it faces the same drag, yet it trades at 16.45x sales.
CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) is the regulated derivatives leader Coinbase is chasing with Deribit. It carries a beta of just 0.27 and 15.25x sales.
Coinbase’s forward multiple reflects low earnings, but on sales it is the cheapest of the three. That comparison makes the 24/7 Wall St. price target look reasonable, even conservative.
Coinbase Looks Oversold After the Earnings Selloff
The 24/7 Wall St. price target remains at $205.24, with a buy model rating and 70% confidence. Revenue diversification is the deciding factor. Confidence would build if prediction markets and derivatives keep making up for weak spot trading.
I’d turn more cautious if Bitcoin breaks lower and Q4 transaction revenue tracks October’s soft pace. On balance, the selloff has priced in too much pessimism.
Coinbase Price Prediction 2026-2030
Here is where our 24/7 Wall St. price target model projects Coinbase could trade, assuming current growth trends and market conditions hold.
Coinbase needs to keep executing on its strategy for these projections to hold. A sustained crypto rebound or stablecoin adoption could drive significant upside, while regulatory setbacks or a extended volume drought could cause downside.
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Vandita Jadeja is a financial publisher with over a decade of experience writing about financial topics, including investment, savings, retirement, insurance and banking. Vandita is a Chartered Accountant who loves to debunk financial concepts for readers.
Her work has appeared on sites that include The Motley Fool, InvestorPlace, and Benzinga. She covers investing and focuses on stock picks and price prediction for 24/7 Wall St.
When not looking for the next stock investment opportunity, she can be found traveling, reading, chasing sunsets and enjoying her iced latte.
