Key Takeaways

  • Compass Point now has a $20 target on MARA Holdings, down from the $30 it carried a year ago, and kept its Buy rating on Nov. 10. That’s 172% above the stock’s $7.34 close.
  • A 37% drop in bitcoin’s average price helped cut MARA’s third-quarter revenue by 35%. The two AI leases management wants by year-end could slip into 2027, while Riot Platforms has already signed one worth about $28 billion.
  • The consensus target has slid to $18 from $23 a year ago, and revenue estimates stay below 2025’s level through 2028.
  • The $20 looks too optimistic until MARA signs a data center lease. A signing at its Kearney site by year-end is the next test.

MARA Holdings (MARA) stock has lost 53% over the past year as bitcoin fell and investors soured on AI data center plans. MARA has yet to sign a tenant for its AI data center sites, while rival Riot Platforms (RIOT) announced a roughly $28 billion lease on Nov. 4. Compass Point still thinks the selloff went too far. On Nov. 10, it kept its Buy rating with a $20 target, down from the $30 it carried when it upgraded the stock last November. Against that day’s $7.34 close, $20 is 172% higher.

The stock jumped 10.5% that day, after a third-quarter report that came with a $500 million buyback authorization.

Bitcoin Did the Damage, and MARA Still Has No Lease

Third-quarter revenue fell 35% to $164.2 million, MARA’s shareholder letter shows. Bitcoin did most of that: a 37% drop in its average price cut revenue by $94.8 million.

Riot’s deal covers its Corsicana, Texas campus for 15 years, the kind of lease MARA has yet to announce. On the Nov. 9 call, CEO Fred Thiel said: “We are still targeting 2 lease signings before year-end. And although market conditions are fluid, that timing could move into next year.”

Compass Point Cuts, but Keeps Its Buy

When Compass Point upgraded MARA in November 2025, its analysts argued the bitcoin selloff had overshot fundamentals. Nearly a year later, the firm has trimmed its target but kept the call. Others went lower on Nov. 10: Rosenblatt cut its target to $11 from $15, and Piper Sandler held at $11.

TIKR Tracks 15 Analysts on MARA Holdings. How Many Say “Buy”?

See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on MARA Holdings, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See MARA Holdings’ Analyst Ratings

Does MARA’s $20 Add Up?

The consensus target has slid to $18 from $23 a year ago, with individual targets running from $10 to $30.

Revenue estimates don’t point to a rebound either. Analysts see $887 million in 2027, still below the $907 million MARA reported for 2025, then $736 million in 2028, the year of bitcoin’s next halving.

With mining revenue expected to shrink, it’s hard to get to $20 without MARA’s AI sites earning something, and none of them has a signed lease yet.

Too Early to Pay for MARA’s Leases

The balance sheet buys MARA some time. Debt is down $1.4 billion this year, though noteholders can ask for $924.1 million back in 2027, and management plans to use bitcoin to build the cash for it.

Still, $20 within a year looks too optimistic to me while revenue estimates point lower and no data center lease is signed. Until one is, the $11 targets from Rosenblatt and Piper Sandler sit closer to what the business shows today.

One signing would change that fast. Asked on the call what’s left before a lease at Kearney, Thiel said the remaining issues “have nothing to do with anything really on our side.” That makes a Kearney signing by Dec. 31 the test for Compass Point’s call.

So What Is MARA Holdings Stock Actually Worth?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!