- The crypto market capitalisation fell by more than 1.5% to $2.45T, its lowest level since August, while Bitcoin is testing its 200-day moving average near $74K.
- Drivers: a stronger dollar after strong US jobs data and Waller’s comments (a 50-basis-point Fed hike in December) and, in our view, risk capital rotating into AI ahead of Anthropic’s IPO.
- What to watch: whether the 200-day MA holds; a break below it could significantly extend the sell-off.
Market Overview
The crypto market capitalisation has fallen by more than 1.5% over the past 24 hours to $2.45T, hitting its lowest level since August. Cryptocurrencies, which had lagged significantly behind equities on Monday, failed to catch up on Tuesday and came under pressure. There are several reasons behind this divergence. We believe that interest in AI in the run-up to Anthropic’s IPO is once again drawing risk capital away from cryptocurrencies, as it did from May to June. Higher-than-expected CPI data showing accelerating inflation, strong US jobs figures, and Waller’s subsequent comments triggered a rally in the dollar, as they opened the door to a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in December. As all this is underpinned by a strong economy, it does not harm equities too much, but it does hurt cryptocurrencies and precious metals. Among the most actively traded altcoins over the past 24 hours, Internet Computer (+4.8%), Avalanche (+4.5%) and Cosmos (+2.6%) are gaining ground. The biggest fallers were Uniswap (-7%), Dash (-4.3%) and Basic Attention Token (-2.8%). The ratio of gainers to losers stands at 1:6.
Bitcoin has fallen back below $74K, testing its 200-day moving average. Monday’s weak rebound was fairly easily overtaken by renewed selling pressure, pushing prices to their lowest levels since August. In August, comments from the US Treasury Secretary and the Fed triggered powerful bullish momentum, but in October, fundamental data began to erode buyer interest, as investors reacted to an increasingly hawkish stance in the fight against inflation. From a technical analysis perspective, we highlight the importance of the current test of the 200-day MA; a break below this level could significantly extend the sell-off. That said, simply holding current levels is insufficient for a bullish reversal; a strong upward move from the current support level is required.
News Background
Large investors are increasingly transferring BTC to exchanges, which is increasing selling pressure. The leverage ratio has fallen but remains elevated. For the decline to halt and for Bitcoin to see sustained growth, buyers need to return to the spot market, according to XWIN Japan.
Bitcoin has returned to the MVRV indicator zone, which previously emerged during the sharp corrections of 2020 and 2023, notes analyst Quinten François.
BTC has fallen below the lower boundary of the power-law model, which describes the long-term price growth corridor, points out analyst Mark Harvey. Previously, such breaks coincided with major shocks, including the collapse of the FTX exchange and the crash amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bitcoin’s correction is not yet over; the decline may continue in the coming weeks, and the market’s final bottom could be formed in December, according to Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse.
According to Lookonchain, since the start of 2026, 14 public companies have sold around 108,247 BTC worth $8.08 billion. More than half of this volume came from just two sellers, MARA and Riot Platforms.
US-based PNC Bank, in partnership with Coinbase, has begun testing a service for accepting USDC payments on the Ethereum network. The solution is designed to speed up international settlements and improve companies’ access to funds.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) will use the Avalanche network for clearing and settlement on its future tokenised securities platform. A separate blockchain with controlled participant access will be created for this purpose.
US Senator Elizabeth Warren intends to step up oversight of prediction markets and cryptocurrency projects linked to President Donald Trump’s family when she is expected to take over as chair of the Senate Banking Committee in January.
The FxPro Analyst Team
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