KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Bitcoin posted a negative 22.2% return in Q1 2026, its weakest first-quarter performance in eight years, according to data compiled by CoinGlass.
- Ethereum recorded a negative 32.17% decline in Q1 2026, marking its third-worst opening quarter since CoinGlass began tracking the asset in 2016.
- The FTSE Digi50 Index fell 26.5% in Q4 2025, illustrating how institutional benchmarks capture drawdowns across the broader digital asset market beyond individual tokens.
- Bitcoin gained 42.71% in Q3 2026, the second-best third-quarter return in its history, trailing only the 80.41% rise in 2017.
- Coin Metrics operates the CMBI Bitcoin and Ethereum index, a free float market capitalization weighted benchmark used by institutional allocators to measure crypto performance.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high near $126,000 on October 6, 2025, then dropped 30% by year-end. That reversal erased months of accumulated gains in a single quarter. Quarterly return analysis provides a structured method for evaluating those swings.
CoinGlass data reveals that Bitcoin lost 22.2% in Q1 2026 alone. Ethereum fell even harder, declining 32.17% in the same period. These figures highlight how seasonal patterns shape portfolio outcomes over time. Q1 2026 return data.
This article examines historical quarterly return data from multiple institutional benchmarks. It covers the CMBI index, the FTSE Russell chartbook, and correlation analysis. Investors can use this framework to benchmark crypto holdings against verified data sources.
How Quarterly Returns Reveal Bitcoin and Ethereum Cycles
Bitcoin has produced wildly different returns depending on the calendar quarter. CoinGlass historical data shows average quarterly returns since 2013 vary significantly. The Q1 average sits at positive 45.90%, per the same dataset.
Q4 historically delivers the strongest average returns at positive 77.07%, CoinGlass reported. Q3 averages positive 8.73%, making it the weakest quarter on average. Q2 averages positive 24.7%, offering moderate returns between the two extremes.
However, averages mask extreme outliers that distort the overall picture significantly. “The historical Q1 average of 45.90% gets pulled higher by extreme outliers,” crypto.news noted in March 2026. Outlier years like 2013 returned positive 539.96% in Q1, skewing all calculations.
Ethereum shows even greater quarterly dispersion than Bitcoin across all periods. CoinGlass data recorded Ethereum at negative 32.17% in Q1 2026. That marked the third-worst Q1 performance since CoinGlass began tracking the asset in 2016.
Bitcoin posted a positive 29.8% in Q2 2025, its best second-quarter performance since Q2 2020, according to crypto.news. Yet Q1 2025 had delivered a negative 11.82% loss just one quarter earlier.
Institutional Benchmarks That Track the Broader Crypto Market
Individual asset returns tell only part of the story for diversified portfolios. Institutional benchmarks aggregate multiple assets into a single performance measurement tool. Two widely referenced benchmarks are the CMBI index and the FTSE series.
Coin Metrics operates the CMBI Bitcoin and Ethereum index for institutional investors. The index uses free float market capitalization weighting and rebalances monthly. It aggregates data from major trading venues that meet strict selection criteria.
FTSE Russell publishes its Digital Asset Quarterly Chartbook with comprehensive sector data. The Q4 2025 report showed the FTSE Digi50 Index declined 26.5% that quarter. The FTSE Bitcoin Index dropped 23.6% in the same Q4 2025 period.
Smart contract platforms represented 18% of the FTSE Crypto 10 Select Index in Q4 2025 when Bitcoin was included in the calculation, compared with 19% when Bitcoin was excluded. The General Purpose sector, which includes Bitcoin and XRP, accounted for 76% of the index. These weightings show how Bitcoin dominance affects any broad market benchmark significantly.
“Institutional investors typically allocate 60 to 80% to Bitcoin within crypto portfolios,” XBTO stated in its February 2026 allocation strategy report. Ethereum receives 15 to 25% of typical institutional allocation, the same report confirmed.
Correlation Analysis and Portfolio Construction With Quarterly Data
Bitcoin shows a moderate 0.3 to 0.5 correlation with equities, XBTO research found. Ethereum displays slightly higher equity correlation at 0.4 to 0.6 during most periods. Bitcoin and bond correlation measures just 0.1 to 0.2, indicating minimal connection.
“Both Bitcoin and Ethereum provide diversification from traditional assets at portfolio level,” XBTO noted in its 2026 institutional allocation strategy guide. However, the two assets offer limited diversification from each other during drawdowns.
Bitcoin ETFs managed over $129 billion in assets by December 2024, according to K33 Research, which reported approximately $129.25 billion across spot, futures and leveraged Bitcoin ETFs on December 17, 2024. That institutional inflow created new correlation patterns between crypto and equities. The October 2025 liquidation event triggered $19 billion in market-wide liquidations.
Quarterly benchmarking requires comparing portfolio returns against an appropriate reference index. A Bitcoin-heavy portfolio should benchmark against the FTSE Bitcoin Index specifically. A diversified crypto portfolio fits better against the CMBI or FTSE Digi50.
Risk-adjusted metrics add another layer of insight beyond raw return comparisons. The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of volatility over a given period. Investors can use the metric to compare the risk-adjusted performance of crypto portfolios with traditional equity benchmarks over the same measurement period.
What Quarterly Patterns Signal for the Remainder of 2026
Bitcoin gained 42.71% in Q3 2026, its second-best third-quarter return ever. That recovery followed consecutive losses of 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2. CoinGlass data shows Q4 historically averages a positive 77.07% across all recorded years.
Historical precedent does not guarantee future quarterly performance in any specific year. Past quarterly averages are skewed by extreme outlier years like 2013 and 2017. Investors should treat seasonal patterns as context, not as predictive trading signals.
Quarterly return data is speculative when used for forward-looking portfolio projections. Past performance does not indicate future results in any asset class whatsoever. Crypto assets carry significant risk of loss, including total loss of principal.
FAQs
What are Bitcoin quarterly returns and why do they matter for portfolio benchmarking?
Bitcoin quarterly returns measure price performance over three month periods, helping investors compare their holdings against historical cycles and institutional benchmark indices like CoinGlass data.
How did Bitcoin perform in Q1 2026 compared to its historical average?
Bitcoin fell 22.2% in Q1 2026, its worst first quarter in eight years, far below the historical Q1 average of positive 45.90% tracked by CoinGlass.
What is the CMBI Bitcoin and Ethereum index used for?
The CMBI Bitcoin and Ethereum index is an institutional benchmark by Coin Metrics that tracks combined performance using free float market capitalization weighting and monthly rebalancing.
How does Ethereum quarterly performance differ from Bitcoin over recent cycles?
Ethereum shows greater quarterly volatility than Bitcoin, declining 32.17% in Q1 2026 versus Bitcoin at negative 22.2%, reflecting higher beta risk in the altcoin market.
What benchmarks do institutional investors use to track broader crypto market performance?
Institutional allocators commonly reference the CMBI index by Coin Metrics and the FTSE Russell Digital Asset Index series, both offering verified quarterly performance data.
How correlated is Bitcoin with traditional equities in 2026?
Bitcoin shows moderate equity correlation of 0.3 to 0.5, while Ethereum measures slightly higher at 0.4 to 0.6, per XBTO institutional allocation research from 2026.
Which quarter historically produces the strongest Bitcoin returns on average?
Q4 historically delivers the strongest Bitcoin returns, averaging positive 77.07% across all years since 2013, though extreme outlier years significantly skew this average upward. Q3 remains the weakest quarter on average, at 8.73%, while Q2 averages 24.7% and Q1 averages 45.90%.
References
- CoinGlass, “Bitcoin Quarterly Returns Data,” 2026. coinglass.com
- FTSE Russell, “Digital Asset Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2025,” December 2025. LSEG.
- XBTO, “Bitcoin vs Ethereum: Institutional Allocation Strategy in 2026,” February 2026. xbto.com
- Coin Metrics, “CMBI Bitcoin and Ethereum Index,” 2026. coinmetrics.io
