Ethereum’s two-day slide has pushed it below the 200-day moving average and into a narrow band above the multi-year rising trendline drawn from early 2021.
Key Takeaways
- ETH is down nearly 6% in two days.
- The 200-day SMA turned back today’s bounce.
- A wick to $2,060 tested the trendline.
- Daily RSI has slipped to 32.
Coindoo’s November 4 analysis caught ETH up 7% at $2,442, just under the $2,500 ceiling, and marked a daily close back below $2,226 as the point where that rebound would fail. On the Binance daily chart at 06:38 UTC on November 9, ETH trades at $2,117, down 0.48% on the day.
That leaves Ethereum in a narrow squeeze: the 200-day SMA and the 0.500 Fibonacci level now cap it from above, and the multi-year trendline sits underneath.
From $2,450 to the trendline in five sessions
The November 4 candle closed above the 100-day SMA, but the move lasted one session. On November 5, ETH gave the gain back and closed under the 0.382 retracement near $2,307, then held around $2,240 for two days. The Fibonacci levels here are measured from the June low near $1,505 to the September peak near $2,803.
On November 8, ETH opened near $2,245 and fell through the $2,226 line from the earlier analysis. It cut through both the 0.500 level near $2,154 and the 200-day SMA, wicked as low as $2,060 and closed at $2,127.
The 200-day now caps the bounce
Today’s session opened at $2,127 and rebounded to $2,160, a few dollars above the 200-day SMA at $2,155 and the 0.500 level, which sit about a dollar apart. Sellers met the move there and pushed ETH back to $2,117, the session low so far.
That cluster was support at the turn of the month, when the November 1 analysis caught ETH bouncing off it. Today it acted as resistance on the first retest from below.
The trendline gets its first test since August
The trendline under price runs from early 2021 through the 2022 bear-market lows near $1,000, and ETH tested it again in 2025. Price has traded above it since mid-August.
November 8 was the first test from above since then. The wick to $2,060 pierced the line, and the candle closed back above it.
The squeeze: about $75, or 3.5%, wide
Momentum gave back the whole rebound
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 32.36, under its signal line at 36.49 and 2.36 points above the 30 oversold mark. On November 4 it had jumped to 55.57. Today’s reading is lower than the 33.83 recorded on November 1, before the rebound began. The monthly RSI is far less stretched at 46.08, just under its signal line at 47.07 and close to the midline.
Above price, the averages have tightened around the ceiling. On the monthly chart, November is down 6.15%, and its $2,450 high stopped just short of the 50-month SMA at $2,469.
That level sits beside the daily 50-day SMA at $2,473 and the 0.236 retracement near $2,497, a ceiling the daily and monthly charts share, which helps explain why every rebound since October has stalled under it.
The 50-day itself is falling toward a 100-day that has kept rising to $2,373, and the gap between the two has shrunk by about a third in five days.
Gap between the 50-day and 100-day SMAs
Daily chart snapshots
Why the trendline is no guarantee
ETH has broken this line before. June and July of this year both closed below it on the monthly chart, and it took the August rally to win it back. Today’s rebound also stalled at the first resistance it reached, a sign that sellers remain active above $2,150.
Reclaim or breakdown
Each route starts with a daily close beyond one edge of the squeeze.
Reclaim route
Trigger: a daily close above $2,155 and today’s $2,160 high
If the trendline keeps holding while RSI stays near 30, a close back above the 200-day could turn the November 8 break into a failed breakdown and open a relief move toward the 0.382 near $2,307, about 9% higher, and the 100-day at $2,373. The $2,469-$2,497 ceiling shared by the daily and monthly charts would stay the larger hurdle.
Breakdown route
Trigger: a daily close under the trendline near $2,080
A close below the line could expose the $2,060 November low first, then the 0.618 near $2,001 and the $2,000 mark, about 5.5% below the current price. Beneath those sit the 100-month SMA at $1,837 and the 0.786 near $1,783.
For the trendline itself, the November monthly close matters most, since that is the timeframe it was drawn on, and the month still has more than three weeks to run. In April 2025, ETH spent part of the month well below the line and still closed back above it.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. The levels and scenarios described are based on technical analysis of public chart data and do not guarantee future price movements. Cryptocurrencies are volatile, so do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
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