Key Facts

  • Ethereum fell about 14% from its Nov. 4 close, against about 8% for Bitcoin, and ETH/BTC closed Tuesday at 0.0278, its lowest since July 9, CoinMarketCap data show.

  • US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $983 million over 12 sessions with outflows on 11, and ETH liquidations of $262 million topped Bitcoin's $205 million, per Bitfinex.

  • Stakers are still adding ETH while the exit queue grows, and Bitfinex says a Bitcoin test of $70,000 could cost the median altcoin another 8% to 10%.

Ethereum fell about 14% from its Nov. 4 close, against about 8% for Bitcoin, and ETH/BTC closed Tuesday at 0.0278, its lowest since July 9, CoinMarketCap data show.

US spot Ethereum ETFs lost $983 million over 12 sessions with outflows on 11, and ETH liquidations of $262 million topped Bitcoin's $205 million, per Bitfinex.

Stakers are still adding ETH while the exit queue grows, and Bitfinex says a Bitcoin test of $70,000 could cost the median altcoin another 8% to 10%.

The exchange's analysts set out the two causes on Wednesday.

How Far Has Ethereum Fallen? About 14% Since Nov. 4

The ratio measures how much Bitcoin one ETH buys. It peaked on Nov. 4 at its highest close since mid-October and has fallen through most of the week since.

Why Is It Falling Faster? Leverage and Fund Outflows

A long liquidation closes a leveraged bet on higher prices when the trader's collateral falls below the required margin, which forces a sale.

Traders have also stopped paying up for bullish bets. Funding on Deribit's ETH perpetual, the fee traders betting on gains pay those betting on losses, has fallen close to zero since Nov. 4, Deribit data show.

Who Is Still Adding? Stakers and a Shrinking Bitmine Bid

The line to leave has also grown, to roughly 150,000 ETH from a few thousand on Monday.

Its chairman is still bullish.

Some dip buyers have also stepped in. A wallet group known as 7 Siblings bought about 10,800 ETH on Tuesday, on-chain tracker Lookonchain reported.

What Comes Next? Bitfinex Ties Altcoins to Bitcoin's $70K

Ethereum traded at $2,078 at 11:42 a.m. ET on Wednesday, with the ratio near 0.0280, CoinMarketCap data show.

If Bitcoin tests $70,000, Bitfinex's ratios imply another 8% to 10% drop for the median altcoin. On the way up, a close back above 0.0298 would meet the test for a turn that Bitfinex set on Nov. 2.

Retail traders have already turned. Santiment counts fewer bullish comments on Ethereum than bearish ones across social platforms.