Ethereum Price: Strong Jobs Data Lifts Fed Hike Odds

Which topics should we dive deeper into?

Select what genuinely interests you. Your picks feed directly into our editorial planning.

Crypto news that's actually worth your time.

Weekly. 60 seconds. Carefully curated by our editors: no hype, no promo flood, no spam.

The US labour market grew much faster than expected in October, and that is deepening fears in the crypto market of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Ethereum traded at around $2,236 on Friday afternoon, shortly after the data came out, according to CoinGecko. That is roughly €2,006 and 6.4 percent below the previous day's level. The figures brought no rebound.

What is documented: the jobs report, the higher odds of a rate hike in futures markets, Ether's price and the outflows from the US spot ETFs, each with a source further down. Our own assessment follows in a separate, labelled section.

US Jobs Report for October: 165,000 Jobs Instead of the Expected 65,000

The US economy added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October. According to Bloomingbit, the market had expected a gain of only 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent in September, also below the 4.2 percent forecast. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent on the month, against expectations of 0.3 percent. The September figure was revised up from 29,000 to 60,000 new jobs.

The jobs report, known in the trade as Nonfarm Payrolls, is one of the most important economic releases in the world. It usually comes out on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. New York time and shows how many jobs the US economy has created outside agriculture. For the central bank it is a gauge of how hot the economy is running. A strong labour market with sharply rising wages can push up inflation, because households spend more.

This time the report carried double weight in the crypto market. Bitcoin and Ether had already dropped sharply overnight after chip and technology stocks slumped on Wall Street. Traders had therefore hoped for weak payroll data that would ease the pressure on the Fed. The numbers delivered the opposite.

Fed Rate Hike in December: Futures Price In Around 80 Percent

After the release, the probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in December rose to about 80 percent in futures markets. That is according to TechFlow, citing the financial data service Jin10. Before the report, traders had priced in around 75 percent. "Priced in" here means the probability implied by the prices of futures contracts on the Fed's policy rate.

The background: in September the Fed raised its policy rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent. At its meeting on October 28 it left rates unchanged. According to the Fed's statement, the vote was 10 to 2, and the two dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, would have preferred an immediate quarter-point hike. The same statement says the economy is expanding at a solid pace. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is set for December 8 and 9.

For Ether, that date matters more than any chart level. A rate hike would make dollar funding more expensive and raise the yield on safe government bonds. Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies then have to offer more to attract capital.

How Rates Work on Ether and Bitcoin When Money Gets Expensive

Ether itself pays no interest unless it is staked. When the policy rate rises, the gap widens to an investment that yields just under 4 percent with no price risk. Large investors calculate exactly that spread. Funds that run mixed portfolios of technology stocks and cryptocurrencies often sell both at once when rates rise, because both depend on expectations of future growth.

A second channel is the dollar. Higher US rates make the dollar more attractive to investors. A strong dollar usually weighs on the prices of commodities, gold and cryptocurrencies quoted in dollars. For investors in Germany the exchange rate adds another layer: if you count in euros, the loss on Ether looks somewhat smaller when the dollar is gaining against the euro at the same time.

Bitcoin was also under pressure. According to CoinGecko, BTC traded at around $75,800 in the afternoon, 5.0 percent below the previous day. Over the same period, Ether lost a good percentage point more than Bitcoin.

Ethereum Price at $2,236: Lowest Level Since August

According to CoinGecko data, the 24-hour high was $2,388 and the low $2,209. On Wednesday, after the US election, Ether had still closed above $2,400. Those gains have now been wiped out entirely. Over 30 days Ether is down a good 13 percent, over one year around 33 percent. The price is 55 percent below its all-time high of $4,946, reached on August 24, 2025.

Market capitalisation, the value of all Ether in circulation at the current price, was last around $273 billion. Trading volume over the past 24 hours came to just under $18 billion. In CoinGecko's daily closing prices, Ether last traded lower than now in mid-August.

Since the end of October the price has moved in a narrow band between roughly $2,240 and $2,280, interrupted only by Wednesday's jump. The fall back to the starting point shows how little tailwind the market has at the moment. New buyers stayed for just one day after the election result.

Spot Ether ETFs: $99.97 Million in Outflows on November 5

US spot funds on Ether saw net outflows of $99.97 million on Thursday, according to SoSoValue data reported by TokenPost. Four of the eleven funds recorded outflows. BlackRock's ETHA accounted for the largest share at $75.20 million. On Wednesday, the day after the election, $53.02 million had still flowed in. Since launch, the funds have taken in a net $12.02 billion.

A spot ETF buys real Ether for every new share and holds it in custody. When money flows out, the fund has to sell Ether or return it to dealers. Outflows therefore act directly on supply in the market. If you are in Germany and want exposure to ETH without holding coins yourself, you can use an exchange-traded product listed in Europe instead of the US funds; our overview of crypto ETFs and ETPs in Germany shows which options exist.

200-Day Line at $2,157: The Key Chart Levels for ETH

The 200-day line is the average of the closing prices over the past 200 days. Many traders read it as the border between an intact and a broken long-term trend. For Ether it currently sits at around $2,157, just under $80 or a good 3.5 percent below the price. The 100-day line runs at about $2,360, the 50-day line at around $2,503. Both are above the price. cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on November 6, 2026, based on 365 daily closing prices from CoinGecko.

On the downside, the 200-day line is therefore the first level. Below it lies the August low: on August 11 Ether closed at around $1,871, the lowest daily close of the past 90 days. On the upside, the price first has to reclaim the 100-day line at $2,360. The 30-day high was about $2,573 on October 8.

What the Levels Tell Investors

Chart levels are not laws. They show where many market participants have placed orders, which is why they are often tested. A close below the 200-day line would mainly prompt short-term traders to sell, while holding above it would calm the situation. If you invest for the long term, treat the levels as a guide for staggered purchases rather than as a signal to act.

Leverage and Liquidation: Rate Data Hit Leveraged Longs First

A liquidation is the forced closure of a position funded with borrowed money once the posted collateral is no longer sufficient. Anyone betting on rising prices with ten times leverage, for example, loses the entire stake on a drop of around ten percent. Exchanges close such positions automatically and sell into the market in the process, which pushes the price down further. With strong economic data this often happens within minutes, because futures prices react abruptly.

Ahead of events such as the jobs report or a Fed meeting in particular, leverage raises the risk considerably. If you trade derivatives, check the distance to your liquidation price and reduce rather than increase leverage before December 9. Our perp DEX comparison shows which platforms for perpetual futures, meaning futures contracts with no expiry date, offer which fees and safety mechanisms.

Holding Period and Loss Offsetting: Ether Tax Rules in Germany

For private investors in Germany, crypto falls under the holding period in Section 23 of the Income Tax Act. If you hold Ether for more than a year, you sell tax-free. If you sell earlier, the gain is taxed at your personal rate, provided that all private disposal gains in a year exceed the exemption limit of €1,000. A price slump can therefore also be a tax opportunity: realised losses on purchases from the past twelve months can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year.

The order matters. For identical coins, the tax office generally assumes that what was bought first is sold first. If you have bought Ether over several years, check before selling which units have already passed the holding period. A crypto tax tool works this out automatically from your trading history and produces the report for your tax return.

Buying Through a MiCA-Licensed Provider, Custody and Staking in a Falling Market

If you want to use the decline to buy more, choose a provider licensed under the EU's MiCA regulation. MiCA is the single legal framework for crypto services in the EU; licensed providers must keep client funds segregated and are subject to supervision, in Germany by BaFin. Which exchanges meet these requirements and what they charge is set out in our comparison of the best crypto exchanges. A savings plan, a fixed amount at a fixed interval, takes the question of the right entry day out of the decision.

On custody: coins on an exchange are convenient, while coins in your own wallet belong only to whoever holds the keys. For larger amounts held over the long term, a hardware wallet is the tool of choice. Staking, the locking up of Ether to secure the network in return for a reward, can make the wait in a weak market more bearable. The reward fluctuates and does not offset price risk. For tax purposes, the German tax authorities take the view that the one-year holding period also applies to staked Ether; the rewards themselves are taxable as other income when received.

Our View on the Ether Price

Our view: the jobs report takes away the market's hope that the Fed will stand pat in December. In favour of this reading: the probability of a rate hike has risen to about 80 percent according to TechFlow, two committee members already voted for a hike in October, and the Ether ETFs are losing money again. As long as these three points hold, Ether lacks a buyer to carry the price above the 100-day line at $2,360. Against it: much of this is already priced in. The hike was three-quarters expected even before the report, and the 200-day line at $2,157 is only a few percent below the current level. This is expressly not a recommendation to buy or sell. Cryptocurrencies can fall to zero.

Ethereum Ahead of December 9: Without a Rate Turn, the Next Push Is Missing

Decide how to buy: If you want to buy more, do it in stages and through an exchange with a MiCA licence. Fees and licences are listed in our exchange comparison.
Check your leverage: Before the Fed meeting on December 8 and 9, widen the distance to your liquidation price. Our perp DEX overview compares platforms and safety mechanisms.
Recalculate the holding period: Before any sale, establish which Ether are older than one year and which losses can be offset. A tax tool does the calculation for you.

(As of November 6, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)

Frequently asked questions about Ethereum and the jobs report

The report showed 165,000 new jobs in October instead of the expected 65,000. Strong data make another Fed rate hike in December more likely, and higher rates weigh on risk assets such as Ether.

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for December 8 and 9, 2026. In October the Fed held its policy rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent, with two members voting for a hike.

According to our own analysis of CoinGecko daily closing prices, the 200-day line stood at around $2,157 on November 6, 2026, a good 3.5 percent below the price of about $2,236.

Losses are not taxed; they can be offset. Anyone in Germany who sells Ether at a loss within a year of buying it can offset that loss against gains from other private disposals in the same year.

Transparency note: This article was produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by our editorial team before publication. All figures and claims were checked against the primary sources linked in the text. The feature image was generated with AI.

Which topics should we dive deeper into?

Select what genuinely interests you. Your picks feed directly into our editorial planning.

Crypto news that's actually worth your time.

Weekly. 60 seconds. Carefully curated by our editors: no hype, no promo flood, no spam.

Ethereum price prediction: the 200-day line is the level that decides

Analysis: Ethereum trades at $2,308 on Monday evening and falls for the fourth day in a row, below the 200-day average of $2,329 for the first time since August 20. Price, averages and the Fed date on Wednesday are documented; the editorial team's assessment stands separately in the text.

November 5, 2026 9:12 PM

Solana Price Slides to $89, First Test of the 200-Day Line Since August

The Solana price fell 6.4 percent to around $89 on November 5 and touched its 200-day line for the first time since August. A chip sell-off on the Nasdaq set it off, amplified by more than $1 billion in liquidations and ongoing ETF outflows.

November 4, 2026 3:15 PM

Solana price prediction: SOL tests the 200-day line at $88.88 ahead of Breakpoint London

Analysis: eleven days before the Breakpoint conference in London, Solana fell to $89.77, almost touching its 200-day moving average. Our review of the last three conferences shows how strongly the price moved before and after.

November 2, 2026 7:13 PM

Solana price prediction: 1,000 days without an outage, will the 200-day line at $89 hold?

Analysis: the Solana blockchain has run without a halt since February 6, 2024, and on November 2 the streak reaches exactly 1,000 days. The price still falls to $92.78, its lowest since August; we show which levels matter now and why technology alone does not carry the price.

October 29, 2026 9:33 AM

Bitcoin Cash falls below $286: the 200-day line that decides the trend

Bitcoin Cash loses almost 6 percent to $279.87 and slips below its 200-day line at $286.19. The trigger is the Fed rate pause of October 28, at which two members even voted for an increase.

October 3, 2026 1:22 PM

Ethereum Price Prediction: Ether ETFs Lose $118 Million in Three Days, Bitcoin Funds Gain

Roughly $118 million has left the US spot Ether ETFs over three consecutive trading days, while the Bitcoin funds are gathering cash again. ETH closes at its lowest level since September 20. These are the levels that now count.

July 25, 2026 11:27 AM

Crypto Price Today: Market Slides Again as Bitcoin Fails at $67,000

Bitcoin slipped back under $64,000 after tapping $66,990. Oil, ETF outflows and Fed nerves are dragging the whole crypto market lower.

October 14, 2026 4:44 PM

Ethereum price at $2,417 after 3.7 percent US inflation breaks the $2,495 level

The American inflation rate rose to 3.7 percent in September, above expectations. Ethereum slipped below the $2,495 level that had held twice this week.

October 8, 2026 4:38 AM

Crypto Market Slides: Bitcoin Loses 4.2 Percent and $651 Million of Long Bets Are Liquidated

Bitcoin has lost 4.2 percent since Tuesday afternoon, and ether and XRP more still. Three reasons can be documented: outflows from the US ETFs, $651 million of forcibly closed long bets and Fed minutes holding out the prospect of another rate rise. A crash it is not, and what to check before buying more is set out here.

November 4, 2026 7:23 PM

Ether ETF buyers sit at an average of $3,200: the Ethereum price levels that count until then

Analysis: According to an estimate by Bloomberg Intelligence, buyers of the US Ether ETFs paid just under $3,200 on average, while Ether trades at $2,425 after the election jump. We recalculate the funds' paper loss, put the outflows in context and show which levels count on the way to the cost basis.

November 6, 2026 7:19 AM

XRP Price Drops to $1.20 and Below Its 200-Day Line: What Is Going On With XRP?

XRP loses 8.3 percent and trades at its lowest level since August. The Wall Street sell-off meets ETFs without inflows and a surplus of long accounts in the futures market.

September 17, 2026 10:40 AM

Crypto News Today: Bitcoin Holds $76,000 After Fed Hike and CLARITY Act Collapse

The CLARITY Act died in the Senate, the Fed hiked for the first time since 2023, and Zcash ripped anyway. Here is the full crypto market update.

October 25, 2026 6:19 AM

Bitcoin Price $80,853: The Fed Statement Comes at 7 p.m. German Time This Week

Germany moved its clocks to winter time last night, the United States does not follow until November 1. For one week every US date shifts forward by an hour, and this is the week that carries the rate decision on Wednesday and the options expiry on Friday.

August 2, 2026 10:04 AM

Crypto News Today: Hawkish Fed, a $70M Wallet Hack and Bitcoin's Shaky Start to August

Crypto news today: the Fed split 9-3, a Coldcard flaw drained $70M in BTC, and ETFs turned red. Here is the full week and what lands next.

May 20, 2024 12:08 PM

Ethereum (ETH) Up To $4000: Can ETH Break Out From The 3K Levels?

With 2 days until the SEC's decision on spot Ethereum ETFs, ETH price surges above the 3.1K and hints about new all-time-highs are on the horizon. Could ETH break out of the current levels and go back to around 4K as back in early March of this year?

October 23, 2026 10:23 AM

XRP price prediction: the 100-day average crosses the 200-day average, 6.05 billion XRP move onto exchanges: what matters now

Our reading: on October 21 XRP's 100-day moving average rose above its 200-day average, the first time in our measurable series since May 11. Over the same stretch exchanges took in 6.05 billion XRP, and the two numbers point in different directions.

September 20, 2026 1:11 PM

Bitcoin Golden Cross: What Twelve Signals Since 2014 Really Show

Bitcoin's 50-day line has crossed its 200-day line. We evaluated all twelve golden crosses since 2014 ourselves and measured what happened afterwards. The result argues against the common reading of the signal.

September 4, 2026 11:32 AM

Ethereum Price Holds Above $2,500: One Level Is Still Blocking The Way

Ethereum trades at $2,517 after another rejection at the same ceiling. The jobs report lands in hours and decides which way this range breaks.

September 21, 2026 1:13 PM

Ethereum Rises While ETF Money Leaves: What ETH Holders Should Check Now

US ether funds lost $140 million in the week to September 18, ending four weeks of inflows. The ETH price still gained a good 5 percent.

October 8, 2026 1:16 PM

Ethereum Price Prediction: “We Thought It Would Take Five Years”, and 100,000 Ether Separate BitMine From Its Buying Cap

BitMine holds 6,016,414 Ether and stops buying at five percent of the circulating supply, around 100,000 Ether short of that line. At the same time the spot ETFs pulled $506.3 million over five days, and Glamsterdam has no date for mainnet.

November 5, 2026 12:07 PM

Ethereum Price Prediction: 77,441 Puts for November 13, Then the Options Market Flips

Ether just gained 5.5 percent, yet the options market is split: for November 13 there are three times as many puts as calls, for November 27 twice as many calls as puts. What that means and which levels count now.

November 6, 2026 1:17 AM

Chainlink Price Falls 7.6 Percent as Long Bets Grow: Will $10.26 Support Hold?

Chainlink lost 7.6 percent on November 5, falling to $10.69 as the Nasdaq sell-off dragged crypto lower. Yet on OKX the number of long accounts rose to as many as 2.59 per short account, and the 200-day line at $10.06 is moving closer.

September 6, 2026 11:19 AM

Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Holds Firm Before The Biggest Week Of The Month

Bitcoin sits near $80,000 after a jobs report killed a four-month high. CPI, the Fed and a Senate vote all land in the next ten days.

October 27, 2026 6:15 PM

Dogecoin price 13.9 percent below the 200-day average: a wider gap on 94 of 166 days

Where things stand: Dogecoin trades at $0.0778 on Tuesday afternoon, 13.9 percent below its 200-day average and 7.4 percent below its 50-day average. What the levels allow, and how often the gap was wider this year.

November 6, 2026 1:27 AM

Is Aerodrome Finance a Good Buy at Current Prices?

Aerodrome Finance has lost about a third since mid-October and is now testing its 200-day average. Whether AERO is a good buy at current prices comes down to a few key levels.

November 5, 2026 7:14 PM

Solana Price Prediction: SOL Sits on Its 200-Day Line as DEX Volume Hits $2.39 Billion

Solana trades at $89.19 on Thursday evening, right on its 200-day moving average at $88.93. Volume on decentralised exchanges on the Solana blockchain rose 26.8 percent on the same day, while network fees are 40 percent below the previous month.

October 30, 2026 6:37 PM

XRP price prediction: will the price rise after $8.4 million of inflows?

Analysis: the US XRP funds took in a net $8.43 million on Thursday, the strongest daily figure of October. Why that sum still barely moves the price and which two levels count now.