๐๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฐ๐ฑ๐ช๐ขโ๐ด ๐ค๐ณ๐บ๐ฑ๐ต๐ฐ๐ค๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ค๐บ ๐ข๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ช๐ต๐บ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ค๐ญ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ต ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ค๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐บ๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฆ 2026 ๐ข๐ด ๐๐ฆ๐ฏ๐บ๐ขโ๐ด ๐ฎ๐ข๐ณ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ต ๐ฆ๐น๐ฑ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฅ 38 ๐ฑ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ค๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต, ๐ฆ๐น๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ด๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ต๐ณ๐ข๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ธ๐ฐ ๐๐ข๐ด๐ต ๐๐ง๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฆ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ช๐ฆ๐ด ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ด๐ถ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ฅ๐ช๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ข๐ฑ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ข๐ค๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฅ๐ช๐จ๐ช๐ต๐ข๐ญ-๐ข๐ด๐ด๐ฆ๐ต ๐ณ๐ฆ๐จ๐ถ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ.
Ethiopia recorded an estimated 3.7 billion US dollars in cryptocurrency transactions in the year ending June 2026, trailing neighbouring Kenya, where activity rose 38 percent to 5.7 billion US dollars, according to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.
Ethiopia's transaction volume declined eight percent during the reporting period, largely reflecting reduced activity on decentralised exchanges, while Kenya registered growth that placed it ahead of Ethiopia among sub-Saharan Africa's largest cryptocurrency markets.
The findings, published by Chainalysis on 29 October 2026, reveal the scale of digital-asset activity in Ethiopia despite restrictions imposed by the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) on unauthorised cryptocurrency transactions.
The divergence comes as Kenya moves towards a licensing and supervisory framework for virtual-asset businesses, while Ethiopia maintains restrictions on unauthorised trading and transfers pending the introduction of a comprehensive regulatory system.
The estimated transaction volumes represent blockchain activity attributed to each market. They do not measure net foreign-exchange outflows, capital flight or financial losses.
South Africa remained sub-Saharan Africa's largest cryptocurrency market, recording an estimated 39.3 billion US dollars in transaction activity, an increase of 52 percent.
Nigeria followed with 38.1 billion US dollars, despite a three percent decline in activity.
Ghana recorded an 80 percent expansion to 5.1 billion US dollars, while Senegal's market increased 215 percent to 2.3 billion US dollars.
Ethiopia was among the markets recording a contraction during the period, in contrast to the expansion registered in several other African economies.
Chainalysis attributed Ethiopia's decline primarily to reduced decentralised-exchange activity. The findings do not establish whether the contraction resulted directly from regulatory restrictions, changes in user behaviour or broader cryptocurrency market conditions.
The comparison also highlights the distinction between transaction volume and the number of cryptocurrency users. A country can record substantial trading activity through a relatively small number of participants, while repeated transfers of the same digital assets can contribute to aggregate transaction values.
The Chainalysis figures provide an estimate of market activity rather than a measure of cryptocurrency ownership or adoption across Ethiopia's population.
Ethiopia's cryptocurrency market operates against a backdrop of foreign-exchange reform, restrictions on unauthorised digital-asset services and growing demand for alternative cross-border payment channels.
On 27 February 2026, the NBE reaffirmed that birr-paired peer-to-peer cryptocurrency transactions were prohibited unless explicitly authorised by the central bank.
The regulator cited risks involving foreign-exchange price manipulation, fraud, operational failures and inadequate anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorism financing safeguards.
The restrictions were subsequently broadened in July to cover unauthorised virtual-asset services, including exchanges, transfers, custody arrangements and related intermediary activities.
The central bank has maintained that such services require explicit regulatory authorisation and has warned that digital-asset transactions can expose users to financial losses and other risks.
The restrictions are particularly relevant to Ethiopia's foreign-exchange market.
Peer-to-peer cryptocurrency platforms can enable users to exchange local currency for digital assets, including stablecoins linked to the US dollar. Such arrangements may create alternative channels for pricing and transferring dollar-denominated value outside conventional banking infrastructure.
Where transactions involve unauthorised birr exchanges, they can raise questions about compliance with foreign-exchange regulations and the central bank's ability to monitor cross-border financial activity.
However, the Chainalysis report does not disclose how much of Ethiopia's estimated 3.7 billion US dollars involved birr-paired transactions, stablecoins, international transfers or domestic trading.
It also does not establish what proportion of the activity took place through prohibited channels.
Consequently, the estimated transaction volume cannot be treated as an equivalent amount of foreign currency leaving Ethiopia or as evidence that the country suffered a loss of 3.7 billion US dollars.
Kenya's expanding cryptocurrency market coincides with the country's transition towards formal oversight of virtual-asset service providers.
Legislation adopted in 2025 established a framework for regulating cryptocurrency exchanges and other digital-asset businesses, with the Central Bank of Kenya and Capital Markets Authority assigned supervisory responsibilities.
The framework was followed by implementing measures in 2026, creating a route towards licensing and oversight of businesses operating in the sector.
Kenya's 38 percent increase in cryptocurrency activity occurred during this regulatory transition.
Nevertheless, the available figures do not demonstrate that regulatory changes alone caused the expansion. Kenya had an established cryptocurrency market before the introduction of the new framework, and the Chainalysis data cover activity before and during the transition.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, stablecoins have become an increasingly important part of cryptocurrency transactions.
Chainalysis estimates that stablecoin value received through peer-to-peer channels increased from 2.3 billion US dollars in 2022 to 14.6 billion US dollars in 2026.
Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain a relatively stable value against an underlying reference asset, commonly the US dollar.
Their use has expanded in markets where businesses and individuals face difficulties accessing foreign currency, making international payments or receiving remittances through conventional channels.
For countries with foreign-exchange shortages, stablecoins can provide an alternative mechanism for holding and transferring dollar-denominated value.
But their use also presents regulatory challenges, particularly where digital-asset transactions connect domestic payment systems with offshore markets outside licensed financial institutions.
In Ethiopia, the NBE's restrictions reflect concerns about these risks, including the potential for unauthorised peer-to-peer markets to operate as alternative foreign-exchange trading channels.
The country began implementing major foreign-exchange reforms in July 2024, allowing greater exchange-rate flexibility and introducing changes intended to improve foreign-currency allocation and formal market functioning.
The emergence of digital-asset trading alongside those reforms creates an additional area for regulatory monitoring, although the available Chainalysis figures do not quantify its effect on Ethiopia's exchange rate or foreign-exchange reserves.
Despite the size of the estimated cryptocurrency market, several important questions remain unanswered.
Chainalysis does not provide a detailed breakdown of Ethiopia's transaction volume by cryptocurrency, trading platform, user category or payment purpose.
The findings also do not establish how much activity involved domestic transfers, cross-border payments, speculative trading or transactions connected to imports and exports.
Nor do they identify the number of Ethiopian users or the value of transactions conducted in violation of domestic regulations.
These limitations matter because blockchain transaction volumes can include transfers between wallets and platforms, repeated trading and other movements that do not necessarily correspond to new investment or international capital flows.
The report cannot independently establish the amount of foreign currency transferred outside Ethiopia's banking system through cryptocurrency transactions.
What it does establish is that Ethiopia continues to account for billions of US dollars in estimated digital-asset activity despite restrictions on unauthorised trading.
The country's eight percent decline also stands in contrast to Kenya's 38 percent expansion and the stronger growth recorded in Ghana and Senegal.
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