Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen evaluated the decline in Bitcoin in his latest analysis.
Benjamin Cowen, a prominent analyst in the cryptocurrency market, warned that the sharp sell-off in US stock markets could put further pressure on Bitcoin (BTC). Cowen noted the striking similarities between economic conditions in 2026 and 2018, suggesting that Bitcoin could retest the lows seen in July.
In his latest market analysis, Cowen, addressing the declines in stock markets following the US midterm elections, recalled a similar scenario in 2018. According to the analyst, stock markets, which rose immediately after the elections, quickly gave back their gains and experienced significant losses in the last quarter of the year.
Cowen stated that the US stock markets experienced a decline of approximately 20% in the last quarter of 2018, which further dragged down the already weak price of Bitcoin. The analyst believes a similar development could occur in the final months of 2026.
“July Lows May Be Seen Again in Bitcoin”
Benjamin Cowen said that Bitcoin investors should closely watch the sell-off, especially in technology stocks.
Cowen pointed out that the Nasdaq index has begun to retest the lows it saw in July, and argued that Bitcoin could move in the same direction.
The analyst summarized his view on this matter with the following question:
“If Nasdaq can test its July lows, why can’t Bitcoin?”
“If Nasdaq can test its July lows, why can’t Bitcoin?”
According to Cowen, investors shouldn’t consider a return to Bitcoin’s previous lows an impossible scenario. A new wave of selling in the cryptocurrency market could occur, especially if macroeconomic pressures persist.
Cowen Points Out Three Similarities Between 2018 and 2026
Cowen stated that there are three key factors behind the current market conditions being similar to those of 2018.
The first of these is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tight monetary policy approach. The analyst recalled that in 2018, the Fed signaled its intention to continue raising interest rates despite the slowdown in economic growth. According to Cowen, the Fed’s hawkish stance in 2026, despite sharp market declines, increases pressure on risky assets.
The second important similarity is trade wars and tariffs. Cowen stated that in 2018, trade tensions between the US and China negatively impacted companies’ profit margins, and today, much broader tariffs are producing similar results.
Citing regulatory pressures in the technology sector as a third factor, the analyst said that the problems faced by large tech companies in 2018 could resurface in the artificial intelligence sector today.
Cowen also argued that the geopolitical uncertainties created by the war in Iran and developments in energy prices have made current economic conditions even more complex compared to 2018.
Sharp Drop in Bitcoin Could Harbinger of a New Bull Market
Benjamin Cowen pointed out the possibility of a sharp decline in Bitcoin in the last quarter of the year, adding that such a move could be a significant turning point for long-term investors.
According to the analyst, investors who have remained optimistic about Bitcoin throughout the year may eventually abandon their bullish expectations following a potential sharp decline.
Cowen believes that this capitulation, which could occur at market lows, might happen just before the start of a new uptrend.
However, the analyst specifically stated that he was not claiming a repeat of the 2018 developments and did not know exactly how far the markets might decline.
*This is not investment advice.
