(Kitco Commentary) - Bitcoin hit its lowest level since August, Nvidia lost its CEO, and Wall Street is heading into the holidays. When nobody knows what's next, your plan matters more than your prediction.
Happy Friday the 13th. Fitting.
Anyone who knows my history knows that falling markets are where I do some of my best work. I've done extraordinarily well trading crypto in bear markets, I called the 2025 top perfectly, and if you've followed my content over the past couple of years, you've seen the P&Ls to prove it.
Bitcoin broke below $71,000 overnight for the first time since August, hitting a low of about $67,500. It's down more than 6% since Sunday. On Wednesday, I wrote that the Nasdaq had run back up to resistance and that I wouldn't be surprised to see a red day Thursday or Friday, with Bitcoin following tech lower. That's exactly what happened.
The 2-week red dot on Bitcoin's momentum wave that I wrote about on Monday called this too. Bitcoin was trading around $74,500 when that article came out. At this morning's low, it was down about $7,000. That's why I don't ignore higher-timeframe signals.
Bitcoin 2-week chart with a red dot on Market Cipher B
Today the Nasdaq is down, and Bitcoin is down with it. That's really nothing new, and I'm going to keep pointing it out to keep track. The day they move differently is the day that matters. A divergence is either a trading opportunity or a sign of a major shift, and you can only spot it if you've already been following the pattern. The more you see it, the more obvious it becomes: for the past few years, Bitcoin has followed the Nasdaq.
The dog days of November
We're in the dog days of November, and seasonally, that's not that surprising. Wall Street is heading into the holidays, and big money is taking time to think about where it wants to adjust its portfolios going into the new year. Volume thins out, conviction thins out, and markets drift and chop.
On top of that, we've had an unusual last two years, to say the least, and this week ended with a bang. Jensen Huang resigned as CEO of Nvidia on Thursday after reports of a relationship with a woman allegedly working as a spy for China, and the stock sank. Nvidia is one of the most valuable companies in the world and the heart of the AI trade that has carried the Nasdaq. It reports earnings on Tuesday under an interim CEO, with a congressional investigation hanging over it.
Crypto has its own problems. MSCI confirmed on Wednesday that it's removing Strategy, Michael Saylor's company and the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, from its indexes at the end of the month. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen days of steady outflows. The stablecoin supply shrank by about $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, the biggest drop since June 2022, which means less money sitting on the sidelines ready to buy crypto. And the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 20, deep in fear.
Anyone who gives you super high conviction on where things go from here is just guessing.
What to do in times like this
This is when your process matters more than your opinion. Here's what I'm doing, and what I'd tell any trader to do:
- DCA. Dollar cost averaging means buying a fixed amount on a regular schedule no matter what the price does. If you believe in Bitcoin for the long term, this is how you build a position without having to call the bottom.
- Raise cash. Cash is a position. It gives you options when everyone else is forced to sell.
- Don't make rash decisions, even if you're down big. A bad week is not the time to blow up your whole plan.
- Don't revenge trade. Trying to win back a loss fast is the quickest way to make it bigger.
- Have a plan A, B, C and more. Know what you'll do if Bitcoin bounces, what you'll do if it keeps falling, and what you'll do if it chops sideways for weeks.
- Don't feel pressured to act on any news event right away. The headlines will keep coming. The market will still be here tomorrow.
By Christmas, we'll know a lot more
By the end of the year, we'll know a lot more about where the money wants to flow. Until then, the safest bets are cash, gold and the S&P 500, and I wouldn't go all in on any of them. Spreading it out is how you stay in the game long enough to take advantage of the next real trend.
You can always zoom in
As usual, you can always zoom in and day trade. Big-picture uncertainty doesn't stop the short-term swings, and the swings have been big. One thing I always look out for is when a move gets short-term overbought or oversold. When something runs three days in a row in one direction, it often snaps back on the fourth. Bitcoin has been dropping hard for days, so keep that in mind before you chase a short at the lows.
If you do play a reversal, take profits quickly, the same day you get the bounce. Hit singles and don't worry about home runs. Keep your size small and your stops tight while the bigger trend sorts itself out.
I'll be posting what I'm seeing in real time in The Profit Circle, my private Discord community. If you want to learn how I read moves like these, that's what I teach at CassiusCuvee.com, and Swell Point is built to help you spot when momentum actually shifts after the noise. GetSwellPoint.com
General chat in The Profit Circle is free! 🌊
Cassius Cuvée
Cassius Cuvée is a full-time trader, financial commentator, and trading educator based in the Bay Area of California. He has traded full-time since 2020 and follows the markets seven days a week, with a focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency alongside stocks, precious metals, oil, and bonds. His specialty is Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, especially how Bitcoin moves in relation to the NASDAQ and major tech equities. He studies the markets through a macro lens and the cycles that drive them, but he trades the short term. He teaches scalping, day trading, and swing trading, and uses that cross-market view to explain price action and the setups he is watching. Cassius is also a recording artist and a self-described reality rapper, using his words to precisely explain what is happening in his environment, including how the financial markets work. That same precise approach carries into everything he teaches. He publishes market commentary on his Substack, Above the Noise 🌊, every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and posts throughout the day, seven days a week, in his private Discord community, The Profit Circle. He also runs a YouTube channel with more than 64,000 subscribers and is the creator of Swell Point, a proprietary indicator. His website, cassiuscuvee.com, produces educational content built to help everyday traders understand what is really moving the markets.
