▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and delivers six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ Merger review at a turning point: The Fair Trade Commission has sent Naver Financial and Dunamu an examination report containing proposed corrective measures and has begun formal deliberations on the business combination. With the share swap scheduled for Dec. 31, the review has been extended to cover the won-based stablecoin issuance market, which does not yet exist, complicating calculations over the merger's expected benefits.
■ AI investment backlash: SoftBank Group, a major backer of AI investments, swung to a net loss for the first time in two years, while Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK hynix (000660.KS) but sharply lowered its price targets. A scandal surrounding Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has also fueled legislation on AI chip export controls aimed at China, shaking the entire AI value chain.
■ Mixed signals in the real economy: Boeing said it will cut 5% of the workforce at its commercial airplanes division, citing excess staffing as it stabilizes 737 MAX production rates. The Korea Institute of Finance, by contrast, projected that the South Korean economy will sustain growth above 3% next year on chip exports and facility investment, while flagging the concentration of growth momentum in semiconductors alone as a risk factor.
[Top News for Corporate CEOs]
1. Naver-Dunamu Merger Likely to Win Conditional Approval
- Key points: The Fair Trade Commission has effectively issued a conditional approval opinion on the business combination between Naver Financial and Dunamu and has entered deliberation procedures. The commission said on the 10th that it sent each company an examination report on the 6th of this month containing proposed corrective measures, including equal treatment of competing operators and restrictions on business practices. The move comes about a year after the merger filing was received in November last year. Naver Financial plans to pay Dunamu shareholders roughly 2.54 shares per share and bring Dunamu in as a wholly owned subsidiary. The commission defined 10 relevant markets and preemptively examined even the won-based stablecoin issuance market, and industry officials voiced concern that a merger aimed at overseas expansion could be constrained by regulation from the outset.
2. SoftBank Swings to Loss for First Time in Two Years Amid AI Investment Backlash
- Key points: SoftBank Group posted a net loss attributable to owners of the parent of 1.1153 trillion yen (about 9.437 trillion won) in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, covering July through September, swinging to a loss for the first time in two years. The figure fell far short of the 129 billion yen net profit expected by analysts polled by Bloomberg. Revenue rose 15.6% from a year earlier to 2.2154 trillion yen. A change in plans for power equipment supply at a data center project in Ohio led to total losses of 597.2 billion yen in the first half of this year, including non-refundable advance payments, while share price declines at Arm Holdings, Intel and Coupang also weighed on results. Expanded borrowing pushed second-quarter financial costs to 461.9 billion yen, about 2.6 times the level a year earlier, and the yield on its corporate bonds with five years remaining to maturity jumped to 8.22% from 7.72% at the end of September.
3. Morgan Stanley Analyst Cuts Samsung, SK hynix Price Targets by Up to 38%
- Key points: Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim lowered his price target on SK hynix to 1.6 million won from 2.6 million won, and on Samsung Electronics to 309,000 won from 381,000 won. He raised his operating profit forecasts for next year but cut his projection for SK hynix's average operating margin over 2029 to 2035 to 28% from 53%. Morgan Stanley expects a data center project of about 5 gigawatts, originally due to come online in 2028, to be pushed back to 2029, and lowered its forecast for growth in new global data center capacity in 2028 to 9% from 21%. The firm maintained overweight ratings on both stocks and switched its top pick in the semiconductor sector to Samsung Electronics from Samsung Electro-Mechanics.
[Reference News for Corporate CEOs]
4. Huang Scandal Widens as Republicans Also Call for Halt to AI Chip Exports to China
- Key points: Fallout from the scandal surrounding Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang is spreading into debate over AI chip export controls targeting China. Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called in a joint statement on the 9th for immediate action by the Commerce Department and urged passage of an AI oversight provision within the National Defense Authorization Act. If enacted, the measure would bar exports to China of chips more advanced than Nvidia's H200 for a set period, and a chip security bill and the MATCH Act are also seen as possible additions to the defense authorization bill. A reconciled version of the defense authorization bill could reach the floor in the second week of December, which would put a vote and presidential signature after mid-December.
5. Boeing to Cut 5% of Commercial Airplanes Workforce, With Layoff Notices From Next Month
- Key points: Boeing told employees it will cut about 2,500 jobs, or 5% of the workforce at its commercial airplanes business. Stephanie Pope, head of the commercial airplanes division, said excess staffing emerged as the company reduced output to stabilize 737 MAX production rates, and layoff notices will begin next month. Boeing has pushed back the timeline for raising 737 MAX output to 47 aircraft a month to early next year from this summer, and Chief Executive Kelly Ortberg set 2029 as the target for reaching $10 billion (about 13.44 trillion won) in free cash flow, a year later than the market had expected. The ripple effects of the slower production pace are spreading through the global supply chain, leaving South Korean aircraft parts suppliers that deliver airframe structures with no choice but to adjust delivery schedules and volumes.
6. KIF Projects 3.1% Growth for South Korean Economy Next Year
- Key points: The Korea Institute of Finance projected that the South Korean economy will grow 3.1% next year on strong chip exports, expanded facility investment and a recovery in private consumption. Kim Hyun-tae, head of the institute's macroeconomic research division, said at a seminar on the 10th that growth above 3% would be sustained as the domestic demand recovery continues despite slower export growth. Private consumption growth is forecast to rise to 2.3% next year from 2.0% this year and construction investment to 1.6% from 0.1%, while facility investment growth is seen slowing to 5.4% from 7.9% and total exports to 5.2% from 9.9%. The institute flagged as risks the possibility that expectations for returns on global AI investment weaken or that data center investment is delayed. It warned that a sharp drop in chip demand could hit exports and facility investment as well as private consumption.
▶Read the full article: Morgan Stanley Analyst Cuts Samsung, SK hynix Price Targets by Up to 38%
▶Read the full article: Naver-Dunamu Merger Likely to Win Conditional Approval
▶Read the full article: KIF Projects 3.1% Growth for South Korean Economy Next Year
Original reporting by Ahn Hye-ji for Seoul Economic Daily.
AI-translated from Korean. Quotes from foreign sources are based on Korean-language reports and may not reflect exact original wording.
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