Global monetary-tightening momentum eased from its July peak, and whether the trend continues into early 2027 will help gauge if macro pressure on crypto markets is receding.
Eight of 10 major central banks raised rates over the past six months, including Sweden’s central bank on Nov. 4. Most of the group continued to raise rates even as the pace of global tightening slowed.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached its bear-market low in November 2022. By February 2023, its six-month return had turned positive, before any of the 10 central banks in the group had begun cutting rates.
In March 2024, Bitcoin’s six-month return exceeded 160% alongside changes in global monetary-tightening measures. The 2022-23 cycle showed that Bitcoin’s six-month return can turn positive before central banks begin cutting rates.
U.S. policy remained a counterpoint. On Nov. 10, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller leaned toward a 25-basis-point increase in December and would consider a 50-basis-point move if core inflation stayed elevated.
Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed increase in December climbed to 96.3% on Nov. 10, from 76.3% earlier that day. Whether the global slowdown persists into early 2027 will be key to judging whether the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming less hostile to crypto markets.
Enna Lee
Enna Lee reports on investing and digital-asset markets for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to [email protected].
