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Goldman Sachs published its 2027 markets playbook on a day when the AI trade was visibly wobbling. Hours earlier, Nvidia shares had plunged as much as 14% at Thursday’s open following the exit of CEO Jensen Huang.
What Goldman is actually forecasting
The asset-allocation report, titled “Growing Pains,” was written by macro strategists led by Dominic Wilson and Kamakshya Trivedi. It pairs with Jan Hatzius’ economic view, “Macro Outlook 2027: Steady Baseline, Downside Risks.”
On the numbers, Goldman sees global GDP growth of 2.8% in 2027. That edges past the 2.7% it estimates for 2026.
The regional picture is uneven. US growth is projected at 2.4%, China at 4.5% and the euro area at a sluggish 0.9%.
Two forces are expected to do the heavy lifting: cheaper energy and continued AI spending. Goldman forecasts Brent crude falling to $78 per barrel by the end of 2027.
AI investment is projected to climb from $1.1 trillion in 2026 to $1.8 trillion in 2027. The bank estimates that spending adds approximately 0.4 percentage points to overall GDP growth.
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Inflation, rates and the trade recommendations
On inflation, Goldman expects US core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, to ease to 2.4% by the end of 2027. The research also points to potential Fed rate hikes in December 2026 and March 2027.
For equities, Goldman sees the S&P 500 potentially rising 14% to a target of 8,700. The bank expects earnings growth to slow sharply, from 36% to 11%.
Goldman’s 2027 playbook recommends buying bonds, shorting the euro and hedging against AI-related risks. It favors bonds and equities in the US and Japan. It also advises protection against a slowdown in AI investment momentum, which the bank expects in early 2027.
The Nvidia backdrop
Nvidia shares fell as much as 14% intraday on November 13, 2026, wiping out hundreds of billions in market value. The drop came amid the resignation of Jensen Huang, which the research tied to personal controversies.
The three risks Goldman is watching
Goldman identifies three major downside risks to its otherwise friendly baseline. The first is an escalation involving Iran, which could disrupt energy supplies. The second is widening fiscal deficits putting pressure on bond markets. The third is AI investment peaking earlier than expected. If the spending surge flattens sooner, the 0.4 percentage-point GDP contribution shrinks, and so does the earnings story behind the stock market.
What this means for investors
For equity investors, the gap between a 14% index target and earnings growth falling from 36% to 11% is the key tension.
What to watch from here is fairly clear. Signs of AI capital spending slowing, oil moving away from the bank’s $78 Brent forecast, Fed decisions in December 2026 and March 2027, and any further fallout at Nvidia will each show whether Goldman’s “steady baseline” holds or whether the growing pains arrive early.
