# Is Anthropic’s IPO Really Behind Bitcoin’s Decline? It would be entirely wrong to attribute the decline solely to this factor. Presenting it as the only reason would also create misleading expectations of a recovery among investors. Bitcoin fell below $68,000, reaching its lowest level since August. Its losses have exceeded 20% since early October, and it has declined by approximately $8,000 in just the past week. The explanation being discussed most widely in the market is Anthropic’s IPO. The numbers are indeed massive: Targeted capital raise: $64.4 billion Company valuation: $1.4 trillion Demand: 6 times the offering, or roughly $380 billion Trading begins: November 19, on Nasdaq Investors looking to participate in an offering of this scale need cash. And Bitcoin is one of the assets that can be converted into cash most quickly, as it can be sold 24/7. Moreover, a similar pattern has been observed before. In June, Bitcoin fell 19% during the 50 days preceding SpaceX’s IPO. The decline over the same period ahead of Anthropic’s IPO is 18%. Bitcoin also recovered after the SpaceX offering was completed. So far, the narrative seems very convincing. Perhaps too convincing. Because several other things happened during the same period: - U.S. inflation came in higher than expected. - Bitcoin demand declined by approximately 284,000 bitcoin:native over the past 30 days. - USDT supply contracted, meaning less fresh capital entered the market. - Spot ETF outflows continued for a fourth consecutive day. - Leveraged long positions were elevated, and the decline triggered liquidations. - Changes in Nvidia’s senior management created uncertainty across the technology sector. In other words, the market was already on weak footing before the IPO factor came into play. Two events do not establish a rule. The similarities between SpaceX and Anthropic are noteworthy, but we have only two examples, and there is no verified data showing that the IPO directly triggered Bitcoin selling. In my view, the more realistic interpretation is this: The IPO is not the cause of the decline, but an accelerator. A massive demand for cash amplified the impact in a market where liquidity was already tight. The practical implications are also important. The expectation that Bitcoin will recover after November 19, just as it did following the $SPCX offering, is not sufficient on its own. It is true that once the offering is completed, capital that was not allocated to the offering will become available again. However, if inflation, ETF flows, and stablecoin supply do not improve, that capital is not necessarily going to flow back into Bitcoin. After November 19, we need to pay more attention to ETF inflows and stablecoin supply than to price alone.