The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
A post from the Bull Theory account on X today said JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) estimates Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) could face $2.8 billion in forced selling if MSCI (NYSE:MSCI) removes it from its global indexes. Although JPMorgan did publish this figure, it came from a November 2025 report by a team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou on MSCI’s earlier digital-asset proposal, which MSCI ultimately didn’t implement.
MSCI then updated its rules on October 15 to make “non-operating companies” ineligible for its global indexes. It plans to announce deletions shortly after 11 p.m. CET on November 11, with any changes taking effect at the close of November 30.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) trades at $73,899, down 0.6% in the last 24 hours and 5.6% over the past week. That places Bitcoin around 2% below Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,456 per coin, based on Strategy’s November 9 8-K report. Meanwhile, Strategy’s shares trade at $123 in premarket, up 1.8% for the day but down 9.1% for the week and 18.9% for the year.
JPMorgan’s $2.8 Billion Counts Strategy Shares Changing Hands
When a benchmark removes a stock, passive index funds tracking it must sell, because those funds automatically hold whatever the benchmark lists. JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion estimate means these funds would sell Strategy shares to other investors, while the company’s 850,364 BTC, valued at around $63 billion, would remain on its balance sheet. JPMorgan also noted that an additional $8.8 billion could leave if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead.
Strategy has contested the size of this impact since MSCI moved to drop it. The company said in August that funds tracking MSCI’s global indexes hold about 13 million shares, or 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding, which it considers less than a single day’s trading volume. At a share price of $123, those 13 million shares would be worth around $1.6 billion, well below JPMorgan’s earlier $2.8 billion estimate.
Strategy operates two lines of business. Its traditional analytics software division generated $125.4 million in revenue during the third quarter, while its Bitcoin treasury is funded from outside sources. These include an at-the-market (ATM) program, which gradually sells new shares in the daily market, and five series of preferred stock that pay fixed dividends before common shareholders. The ATM program raised $5.41 billion in net proceeds during the third quarter.
Bitcoin Feels It Only If Strategy Buys Less or Sells More
JPMorgan analysts highlighted funding concerns, saying removal from the index could raise questions about Strategy’s ability to raise equity or debt. A lower share price means any shares sold through the ATM buy less Bitcoin. Strategy is also reporting a BTC Yield of negative 3.7% for 2026, meaning each share holds less Bitcoin than at the start of the year.
Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman, said on February 5 that the company doesn’t sell equity when its stock trades weakly. About STRC, its primary preferred stock, he added, “If it trades below 100, we don’t sell them.” With STRC below its $100 stated amount, two of Strategy’s funding sources could slow down at the same time. In the week to November 8, the company also spent more on share buybacks than on Bitcoin.
Strategy has also sold approximately $432 million of Bitcoin through the third quarter to cover preferred dividends and fund STRC buybacks, according to its third-quarter 8-K report. The board has authorized Bitcoin sales of up to $1.25 billion to fund its USD Reserve, and preferred dividends cost $419.6 million in the third quarter, three times the amount a year earlier.
Will Strategy’s MSCI Exit Lower Bitcoin Prices?
A Strategy MSCI exit would directly hit Strategy shareholders but only indirectly affect Bitcoin. Selling Strategy stock moves shares between investors without touching the company’s 850,364 BTC, so Bitcoin feels the effect only through how fast Strategy buys. Other factors are also weighing on Bitcoin, as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $95 million on November 10, a fourth consecutive day of outflows.
Strategy’s weekly 8-K filings after November 30 could show where the selling goes. If they show new Bitcoin purchases, the index selling stayed inside the stock. However, if they show Strategy drawing on its $1.25 billion sale authority beyond what dividends require, the selling has reached Bitcoin, giving Bitcoin’s price a clear reason to come under pressure.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
