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Kalshi and Polymarket peg Democrats at ~75–78% Senate and 94% House. Midterm outcomes tied to potential shifts in cryptocurrency regulation and policy.
11 outlets told this the same way.
Markets price a Democratic sweep
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket priced Democrats as favored to win control of Congress in the US midterm elections, with a Democratic sweep priced at 75% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket as of 4:30 pm UTC. Kalshi traders gave Democrats a 93% chance of taking the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate, while Polymarket priced those outcomes at 94.5% and 75.5%, respectively.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour cautioned that “a 5% probability doesn’t mean it won’t happen,” according to CNBC. As of the early hours of November 4 Japan time, Kalshi put the probability of Democrats winning a Senate majority at 75% and Polymarket at 76%, while both markets calculated a 94% chance for the House.
Crypto bets hinge on CLARITY
The crypto industry focused on the stalled CLARITY Act, which passed the House in 2025 but stalled in a September Senate vote that fell short of the 60 votes needed to proceed. The Senate failed to advance the bill in a September vote, and the bill’s fate hinged on committee leadership if Democrats win the Senate.
A shift in congressional control could reshape the prospects for long-awaited regulatory clarity, and the Clarity Act would split supervision between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Futures Commission. “Any future crypto law will need 60 votes in the 100-member Senate to overcome a parliamentary filibuster,” making Democratic votes central to passage.
Bitcoin slides on regulatory fears
Bitcoin fell below $76,000 to a nearly two-month low as Democrats made advances in the US midterm elections, with TradingKey saying investors feared “heightening of regulatory scrutiny from the SEC and the CFTC.” Bitcoin plunged to around $75,600 after breaking below the psychological threshold of $76,000, and liquidations and cooled risk appetite drove the move.
Mark Palmer, senior equity research analyst at StoneX Financial, said “There is a sense that some of the benefits cryptocurrency companies have gained from regulatory changes” may not be permanent. Bitcoin trades around $77,000 and the election determines whether the Clarity Act has a future in Congress, while clients withdrew almost $5 billion since Binance reopened.
