Election contracts on the CFTC-regulated platform have pulled in more than $1.4 billion, with traders pricing a 93% chance Democrats win the House

Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 15:13 EST · 3 min read

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Election Day has arrived, and a lot of Americans have money riding on it. Kalshi’s midterm-related trading volume has passed $1.4 billion as of Tuesday, according to data the company supplied to Fortune.

The crowd is leaning blue. Kalshi traders are giving Democrats a 93% chance of winning control of the House and a 73% chance of taking the Senate.

Where the money is going

The single biggest market on the platform asks a simple question: which party will control Congress? That contract alone has attracted $251 million in trading volume.

A narrower contract on which party wins the House has crossed $181 million. Put another way, two contracts account for well over $400 million of the action. The rest is spread across a long list of Senate, House and governor races.

Some individual contests have become crowd favorites. The Senate races in Texas and Michigan have each drawn tens of millions of dollars in volume. Together, those two races make up nearly half of all individual Senate trading on Kalshi.

The odds have shifted a little depending on when you checked. Pre-election readings put Democratic House control somewhere between 93% and 95%, and Senate control between 73% and 78%.

Bigger than the presidential cycle

The platform’s midterm volume has already exceeded what it recorded during the 2024 presidential election.

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Earlier tallies put Kalshi’s midterm volume at roughly $1.3 billion and rival Polymarket’s at about $600 million. Combined, those figures came to approximately $1.9 billion across major platforms. Kalshi’s newer $1.4 billion figure suggests the total kept climbing as polls opened.

Part of Kalshi’s growth traces back to product decisions. In July 2026, the company launched a dedicated Midterms Hub. It pulls live odds, polling data and past election results into one place, essentially turning the platform into a research desk with a trade button attached.

The data is also producing some unusual demographic slices. Traders tied to law enforcement have shown a preference for Republican candidates, while those in arts and entertainment lean toward Democrats.

Regulators are paying attention

Kalshi operates as a regulated prediction market under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That status separates it from offshore betting sites and is a large part of its pitch to mainstream users.

The surge in trading has drawn closer scrutiny from regulators. Certain candidates have been suspended from trading over self-trading concerns.

What this means for prediction markets

Kalshi appears to hold a wide lead over Polymarket in midterm volume, based on the earlier split of roughly $1.3 billion to about $600 million.

For investors and traders outside these platforms, the bigger shift is cultural. Election odds are increasingly treated as a market signal, similar to how traders watch futures pricing for clues about the economy. Funds and corporate strategists who price in political risk now have a live, dollar-weighted read on outcomes rather than relying solely on polls.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

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