Sen. Jeff Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin’s STOP Corrupt Bets Act would ban election, sports and military event contracts on federally registered exchanges, cutting off those listings at Kalshi and Polymarket US if enacted.
Merkley, an Oregon Democrat, and Raskin, a Maryland Democrat, introduced companion bills S. 4226 and H.R. 8123 on March 26, 2026. Both remain at the introduced stage, according to Congress.gov. The proposal is not law.
Election trading illustrates the business at stake. A Washington Post analysis published Nov. 3 estimated nearly $1.9 billion in midterm-related trading across Kalshi and Polymarket as of late Nov. 2, including about $1.3 billion on Kalshi and $600 million on Polymarket. Those are trading figures, not platform revenue.
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The bill text would prohibit contracts involving any political election or contest, any sporting event or contest, and military action by the United States or a foreign country. It also covers actions by the U.S. executive, legislative and judicial branches.
The government-action category has an exception for contracts used to hedge or mitigate commercial risk, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission determines by rule or regulation. That exception does not extend to the election, sports or military categories.
Under the existing Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC can determine that certain event contracts involving gaming, war and other specified activities are contrary to the public interest and prohibit them. The proposal would add an explicit statutory prohibition for its named categories rather than leave those listings to that public-interest review.
Registered Exchanges, Not a Global Platform Ban
The operative restriction applies to contracts listed or made available for clearing or trading “on or through a registered entity.” The CFTC lists both Kalshi and QCX, doing business as Polymarket US, as designated contract markets.
That scope matters for Polymarket’s separate international platform: the bill is not written as a blanket global ban on the brand. Its foreign-market provision instead calls for a Government Accountability Office study of ways Congress could address illegal activity in foreign prediction markets and companies operating across borders. The combined midterm trading estimate is therefore not a measure of volume the legislation would necessarily eliminate.
The sponsors frame the ban as a response to corruption risks. In their March 26 announcement, Merkley said betting on government decisions or military strikes was “ripe for corruption and erodes public trust.”
Polymarket, meanwhile, has emphasized surveillance. In an Oct. 27 announcement, it said teams on its U.S. and international platforms combine automated detections and human investigations to identify insider trading and election-market manipulation. As The Defiant previously reported, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and John Curtis subsequently asked both companies for evidence that their election safeguards work. Those controls would not preserve listings prohibited by the bill.
The sponsors say the legislation would leave state-regulated gambling, including traditional sports betting, intact. The Senate bill remains referred to the Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee; the House companion remains with the Agriculture Committee.
