Morgan Stanley expects newly elected Democratic governors to leave projects already under construction largely unaffected. As a result, its outlook for data centres scheduled for completion in 2027 remains unchanged.
The brokerage anticipates delays affecting some 2028 projects in Texas and Ohio. State governments may introduce new requirements for developers before allowing additional construction.
Following this assessment, Morgan Stanley moved 5 gigawatts of planned US data centre capacity from 2028 into 2029. That represents approximately 20% of US projects and 10% of global projects.
Its revised forecast shows US data centre capacity additions falling 4% year over year in 2028. The brokerage then expects growth of 38% in 2029.
Globally, Morgan Stanley projects capacity additions will increase 9% in 2028 and 20% the following year.
The revised schedule could weaken suppliers' pricing power or lead to higher inventories during 2028. Morgan Stanley also identified approximately 20 gigawatts of potential development opportunities across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
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