Money continues to flow out of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, while the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency has hit its lowest level since August and a gauge of market sentiment has sunk deep into fear territory.
According to data compiled through Nov. 4, the Bitcoin ETF group recorded net outflows of about $1.84 billion since the start of the year, with October alone accounting for $215 million. Selling pressure has not let up: over the three sessions from Oct. 30 to Nov. 3, U.S. spot funds saw a further $1.16 billion withdrawn, of which BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for about $734 million. After a session of renewed inflows on Nov. 4, flows reversed again with about $412 million in net outflows on Nov. 6, with IBIT alone losing $403 million. Total net assets of the fund group now stand at about $95.9 billion.
On price, Bitcoin lost more than 2% in overnight trading, falling to around $73,700, its lowest since August and far below the peak above $122,000 set last October. Ether fell more sharply, about 5%, to around $2,220. Market data showed Bitcoin trading around $75,700 on Saturday before a selloff late Sunday, then recovering the $75,000 mark early this week, but that rebound has not been enough to turn sentiment around.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a gauge compiled from price volatility, trading volume, social media trends, Bitcoin market share and online searches, stood at 29/100 in the first session of the week, only slightly up from 28 the previous day. A week ago the index was at 37 and a month ago at 64, when optimism still prevailed.
Market watchers attribute the correction to four main factors: the U.S. interest rate outlook, concerns about the effectiveness of investment in artificial intelligence, policy uncertainty after the midterm elections and a large-scale hack targeting Binance in late October. The Democratic Party's capture of control of Congress has raised concerns that the process of building crypto-friendly policies will slow, after the crypto industry spent more than $300 million supporting candidates from both parties.
On a technical basis, the $73,700–$74,000 zone is now Bitcoin's key support; a move above $76,000 could help restore short-term confidence, while a break below the weekend low could open the way for a deeper decline. For Ether, the $2,100–$2,120 range plays a similar role, while $2,240 is the resistance level that must be cleared for selling pressure to ease.
It should be noted that outflows from ETFs do not mean all institutional investors are dumping Bitcoin. These funds also serve individual clients, and trades may stem from portfolio rebalancing, hedging or arbitrage. As of the end of last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still recorded about $55.8 billion in cumulative net inflows since their launch in early 2024, showing that the role of this investment channel in the traditional financial system remains significant.
For investors, the path ahead depends on whether institutional money returns once the policy and interest rate outlook becomes clearer. Past fear readings have signaled recoveries, but analysts say there is not yet a basis to conclude the market has bottomed, and digital assets remain vulnerable to volatility until momentum clearly shifts.
