PiCK

Summary

  • Analysts said investors should be cautious about chasing Bitcoin higher until it decisively breaks through resistance in the $81,000 to $82,000 range.
  • They said market flows and investor sentiment have yet to fully recover as the Binance hack, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and buying concentrated in leveraged futures continue to weigh on the market.
  • The market is watching support in the $76,000 range, resistance in the $86,000 to $86,800 range, and the $70,000 to $75,000 zone as a potential area for further declines as investors assess whether a trend reversal is taking shape.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Risk assets rebounded after Democrats won the U.S. midterm elections, as expectations for an end to the Iran war combined with a sharp drop in oil prices. Bitcoin market flows, however, have yet to fully recover as the fallout from the Binance hack and ETF outflows continues to weigh on sentiment. Analysts say investors should be cautious about chasing gains until Bitcoin decisively clears resistance in the $81,000 to $82,000 range.

As of 5:50 p.m. on Nov. 5, Bitcoin was trading at $80,440 on Binance's USDT market, up 2.57% from a day earlier. On Upbit, it was trading at about $78,400. The kimchi premium, which tracks the gap between overseas and South Korean exchange prices, stood at 0.19%.

Democrats Win U.S. Midterms; Oil Slump Lifts Risk Assets

Democrats retook both the Senate and the House in the U.S. midterm elections, deepening uncertainty over the Trump administration's ability to push through policy and manage ties with Congress. Financial markets, however, reacted first to the prospect of an end to the Iran war and a steep drop in global oil prices, fueling a relief rally.

International oil prices, which plunged more than 8% on Nov. 4, extended their decline on Nov. 5. Brent crude fell to $93.82 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate dropped to $86.92, marking a fourth straight session of losses. Investors were pricing in the possibility that Democratic control of Congress could constrain the Trump administration's military action against Iran and raise the odds of an end to the conflict. The drop in oil also eased concerns about inflation and further monetary tightening, supporting a rebound in risk assets including U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Some on Wall Street warn that Democratic control of both chambers could itself become a new black swan event. The risk, they say, is prolonged political conflict and policy gridlock if Democrats use congressional investigations and hearings to pressure the administration while President Donald Trump responds with vetoes.

Additional tax cuts and fiscal expansion backed by Republicans are now more likely to face constraints. Democrats, for their part, may also struggle to override Trump's vetoes, deepening the deadlock typical of divided government. Talk of a "super lame duck" scenario has centered on the possibility that momentum behind major economic and trade policies could weaken over the next two years.

Bitcoin Digests Midterms, but ETF Outflows and Hack Shock Still Weigh

Bitcoin's rebound prospects have drawn attention since the U.S. midterms, but market flows and investor sentiment have yet to show a clear recovery. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $202.4 million last week. The funds saw net inflows during the week, but news of the Binance hack added downside pressure, and $643.2 million exited on Nov. 30 alone, turning the weekly total negative.

Glassnode, the on-chain analytics firm, said Bitcoin had already gone through much of its correction before the midterm elections. "After each of the previous three midterm elections, Bitcoin fell once more before forming a cycle low," the firm said. "This time is different because the token had already dropped about 11% from its September peak through election day." It added that profit conditions for short-term holders have deteriorated sharply and fresh capital inflows remain limited, so the durability of the rebound still needs to be tested.

Santiment, another on-chain analytics firm, said investor sentiment in the crypto market had already weakened sharply around the U.S. midterms. Bullish views on Bitcoin currently amount to only about half of bearish ones, reflecting stronger pessimism among retail investors. The firm added that such deeply depressed sentiment warrants attention from a contrarian perspective. If Bitcoin can stably reclaim the $79,000 level while pessimism persists, that could signal a reversal running counter to investor expectations.

Wintermute, the crypto market maker, said the Binance hack continues to weigh on sentiment across the broader market. "Last week's market was driven more by the Binance hack than by macro factors, and the pressure has continued after roughly $1.5 billion in forced liquidations," the firm said. It added that buying during the decline had been concentrated in leveraged futures rather than spot markets, indicating that fresh capital inflows needed to support a rebound remain unclear. The firm said that if Bitcoin holds above $80,000 and spot and ETF inflows return, that could add momentum to any further rebound.

Bitcoin Regains $80,000, but Analysts Say Trend Reversal Isn't Confirmed Yet

Bitcoin has rebounded from a short-term low as risk appetite recovered following the U.S. midterm election results. Analysts say the recent slide is easing, but more time is needed before the market can confirm direction around the $80,000 level.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said Bitcoin found support near $75,700 and has rebounded about 4% from that low. He said the token would need to break above $82,000, where the recent peak was set, to confirm a trend reversal. At current levels, he added, it is still too early to call a full-fledged return to an uptrend.

Some analysts also see the potential for a short-term rebound after the midterms. Andreja Kovelich, head of derivatives trading at Amina Bank, the Swiss digital-asset bank formerly known as SEBA Bank, said Bitcoin's drop to $75,500 followed by a swift recovery looked more like short-term volatility than the start of a fresh downtrend. He added that downside fears appear to have been overly reflected in the crypto options market. If ETF flows turn positive again, room for a rebound in Bitcoin and the broader crypto market could widen.

In the medium term, the market is focused on the $76,000 area and the $86,000 range as key levels. Julien Pineda, a market analyst at Forex.com, said buying has recently returned and Bitcoin is trading around $80,000, but short-term momentum has yet to establish a clear direction. He said $86,800 is a key resistance level because it marks the recent high. A break above that level followed by consolidation could reinforce the uptrend. If Bitcoin falls below $76,450, however, the medium- to long-term bullish structure could weaken and the risk of further losses could grow.

Even above $80,000, analysts say investors should watch for selling pressure. Bitfinex, the global cryptocurrency exchange, said about 1.12 million Bitcoin was bought in the $81,000 to $84,000 range, which could increase selling pressure once the token moves back above $80,000. On the downside, if a daily close falls below $75,839, the door could open to further losses toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range.

Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter [email protected]

Minseung Kang