A Polymarket contract tracking whether Bitcoin (BTC) reaches $75,000 at any point in November showed a 30% probability at 4:19 a.m. ET Friday (09:19 UTC), half its level 24 hours earlier. The figure applies to a market with a specific venue and measurement rule.
Bitcoin traded at $68,837 at 4:21 a.m. ET (09:21 UTC), down 6.03% over the previous 24 hours.
The contract resolves yes if a one-minute candle for Binance's BTC/USDT pair records a high of at least $75,000 from midnight ET Nov. 1 through 11:59 p.m. ET Nov. 30. A qualifying high at any point in the month counts, even if Bitcoin does not close November at $75,000.
Prices on other exchanges, trading pairs or spot markets do not meet the contract's criteria. The 30% reading describes the chance of meeting this specific test, not the likelihood of Bitcoin ending November above the threshold.
Enna Lee
Enna Lee reports on investing and digital-asset markets for TokenPost. Send corrections or tips to [email protected].
