PiCK

Summary

  • Analysts said Bitcoin’s drop below $69,000 may reflect investors raising cash ahead of the Anthropic IPO.
  • Anthropic is pursuing an offering of as much as $64.4 billion on Nasdaq, fueling the view that cryptocurrencies and AI-related investments are competing for a limited pool of investment capital.
  • Bitfinex said that, as in the SpaceX listing, spot Bitcoin ETF flows may need to turn positive; otherwise, a disappointing Anthropic IPO could pose greater downside risk for Bitcoin.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Anthropic seeks to raise as much as $64.4 billion

“Investors are raising cash ahead of a megadeal”

Bitcoin also fell 20% before the SpaceX listing

Bitcoin slipped below $69,000, with some analysts arguing that the planned initial public offering of artificial intelligence company Anthropic is adding to selling pressure. The view is that investors are selling crypto assets to raise cash for the share sale. The comparison gaining traction is the period before SpaceX’s June listing, when Bitcoin dropped about 20% over a month.

On Nov. 13, Bitcoin fell as low as $68,527 in intraday trading on Binance’s Tether market. It was recently changing hands near $68,920, down about 6.7% from a day earlier.

Some in the industry say Bitcoin’s sharper decline this month is tied to Anthropic’s IPO. Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said the deal could be one factor behind Bitcoin’s recent slide. Investors tend to line up cash before major IPOs.

“$64.4 Billion Offering Could Pull Capital From Crypto”

Anthropic plans to raise as much as $64.4 billion through a Nasdaq listing expected on Nov. 19. The company plans to offer 825 million shares at $70 to $78 apiece. At the top of that range, its valuation would reach about $1.4 trillion. It would rank as another mega-offering after SpaceX raised $75 billion in June.

About 20% of the deal is earmarked for retail investors, or roughly $12.9 billion at the top of the range. Bitfinex highlighted that allocation structure in a Nov. 11 report. The exchange said the investor base for cryptocurrencies overlaps with the pool interested in Anthropic’s IPO, setting up competition for limited capital.

The same concern surfaced around the SpaceX listing. Adam Morgan, chief researcher at LowTech, said retail and institutional money was leaving risk assets to secure SpaceX IPO allocations. The pressure does not vanish the moment trading starts. In his view, crypto and AI-related investments are competing for the same investor dollars.

Anthropic stock could also draw heavy demand after the listing. Index analytics firm Intropic estimated about $19 billion of buying demand from index-tracking funds. Other investors may also move early to secure shares ahead of any accelerated inclusion in major indexes.

Carsten Hesse, head of index events at Berenberg, said Anthropic could face the same index-driven supply-and-demand dynamics in early trading that SpaceX did.

Bitcoin Also Sank During SpaceX Deal, Then Rebounded Three Months Later

Three months later, both assets were trading above their prices on the listing day. On Sept. 12, Bitcoin stood at $77,278, up about 22%, while Ether traded at $2,526, up about 52%. Crypto assets that weakened ahead of the blockbuster IPO later recovered.

Still, Bitcoin fell further immediately after the SpaceX listing, sliding as low as $57,800 intraday. Ether also sank to $1,512 on June 26.

Bitfinex said the key period in the SpaceX case was the fundraising process before the listing rather than the debut itself. Bitcoin had already fallen sharply before the roadshow began, and then mostly moved sideways from the start of the roadshow through the first week after the listing.

The exchange added that Anthropic’s market reception could shape how investors judge valuations for AI companies and, through the Nasdaq, spill over into Bitcoin. Unless flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds turn positive again, the downside risk from a poorly received IPO may be greater than the upside from a successful one.

Ilya Otychenko, chief analyst at CEX.IO, said during the SpaceX listing that the market’s direction several weeks later mattered more than the first trading day. For IPO profits to rotate back into crypto, the newly listed company’s share price would need to remain stable while outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs eased.

Doohyun Hwang