A 21.52 RSI and a 22% open-interest flush leave SOL at $80.14; reclaiming $86.74 opens $90 | That’s TradingNEWS
Key Points
- SOL dipped to $77.85 Friday, testing the $77–$82 zone buyers defended in June and July, before recovering to $80.14.
- Spot Solana ETFs took in $1.69M on November 12 after five outflow sessions, with cumulative inflows at $1.414B.
- Open interest fell 22.4% to $5.24B and RSI hit 21.52; a close above $86.74 opens the $90 upside target.
Solana traded at $80.14 late on Friday, November 13, down 1.6% over 24 hours after a session that took the token as low as $77.85 before buyers pulled it back above $80. The 24-hour range ran from $77.85 to $82.38. At $80.14, SOL carries a market capitalization of $47.4 billion on a circulating supply of 591.5 million tokens.
The slide has been steady. SOL closed October at $95.42 and has fallen on nine of the 13 days in November. It closed at $95.61 on November 4, fell 6.6% to $89.33 on November 5, held near $90 through November 7, then broke lower: $86.54 on November 8, $83.35 on November 10 and $81.72 on November 12. The token is down 11% over seven days and 16% month to date. Against its all-time high of $295.90, set in January 2025, SOL trades 72.9% lower.
The level matters more than the move. SOL now sits inside the $77 to $82 support zone that buyers defended in June and July of this year, before the token rallied from a June low near $60 to a rejection at $120 to $125 in late September. Friday’s dip to $77.85 tested the bottom of that zone and drew buyers. A daily close below $77 would break the last support before the June lows.
The selling is broad. Bitcoin fell below $69,000 and Ethereum lost $2,000 on Friday, as $14.2 billion of stablecoin balances drained from the crypto market. The dollar index touched a 19-month high of 103.30, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.16%, a December Federal Reserve hike is fully priced, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.85% after Nvidia’s chief executive resigned.
Momentum has reached extremes. The 14-day relative strength index fell to 21.52, a deeply oversold reading that has historically preceded relief rallies in Solana. Spot Solana exchange-traded funds recorded a $1.69 million net inflow on November 12, the first positive session after five straight days of outflows.
The thesis for this forecast is that SOL is testing a support zone with a proven record, at oversold extremes, as ETF selling exhausts. If $77 holds and Bitcoin stabilizes, SOL has a path back to the $89 to $90 zone where it tested its 200-day moving average on November 5 and traded through November 7. The upside target is $90, a 12.3% gain from $80.14.
The month’s decline came in three steps, each tied to a broader market shock.
The first step came early. SOL opened November near $95 and climbed to an intraday high of $98.14 on November 4, closing at $95.61 that day. The rally failed below $100, a level the token had lost in late October after closing at $102.32 on October 28.
The second step came on November 5. SOL fell 6.6% to $89.33, touching its 200-day moving average for the first time since August. A chip selloff on the Nasdaq triggered the move, which was amplified by more than $1 billion in liquidations across crypto derivatives and continued ETF outflows. The token traded as low as $88.30 that day.
SOL held near $90 for two sessions. It closed at $90.13 on November 6 and $89.81 on November 7, a sign that buyers were defending the 200-day line. The consolidation did not last.
The third step began on November 8. SOL fell 3.6% to $86.54 as weekend liquidity thinned. It held near $86.74 on November 9, then dropped 3.9% to $83.35 on November 10 as hot U.S. inflation data pushed Treasury yields higher. It closed at $83.28 on November 11 and $81.72 on November 12, as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller raised the prospect of a 50-basis-point December hike and the dollar broke to a 19-month high.
Friday added the final leg. Bitcoin fell below $69,000, and SOL dropped to $77.85 before recovering to $80.14. The dip took SOL into the $77 to $82 zone for the first time since July.
The sequence shows a market that has lost support level by level. The $100 handle went in late October. The $95 level failed on November 5. The 200-day moving average near $89 broke on November 8. The $83 to $86 area failed this week. Each break came on a macro catalyst rather than Solana-specific news.
That pattern shapes the forecast. A decline driven by macro and leverage tends to end when forced sellers are cleared and the macro pressure eases. Friday’s rebound from $77.85 suggests spot buyers are present at the zone they defended in the summer. The question is whether Bitcoin gives them enough stability to build a floor.
SOL’s slide this month cannot be separated from the macro backdrop, and that backdrop will decide when the selling ends.
The Federal Reserve is the main driver. Futures markets price a 91% probability of a quarter-point hike at the December 8 and 9 meeting and a 9% chance of a half-point move. Fed officials across the spectrum leaned hawkish this week. Waller said a 50-basis-point hike should be considered. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that the Fed is not making progress on inflation. Higher policy rates make cash and Treasury bills more attractive relative to crypto assets.
The data supports that tone. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October against a 0.3% forecast, with core prices up 0.3% for a third month. Producer prices are running at 6.5% year over year, the highest since November 2022. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 17 basis points in a single session on Tuesday.
The dollar is amplifying the pressure. The dollar index reached 103.30 on Friday, its highest in 19 months. A strong dollar tightens global financial conditions and drains liquidity from speculative assets. The euro fell to a 19-month low and the yen tested 160 per dollar.
Treasury yields set the opportunity cost. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.16% on Friday. Institutional investors can earn more than 5% in government debt with no price risk, which reduces the appeal of high-volatility tokens like SOL.
Liquidity inside crypto is shrinking. Stablecoin balances fell by $14.2 billion, a sign that capital is leaving the sector rather than rotating between tokens. Stablecoins serve as the dry powder for crypto trading. When that pool shrinks, buying power for every token falls, and higher-beta assets like SOL fall hardest.
Equity markets added to the risk-off tone. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.85% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.7% on Friday, led by a 10.5% drop in AMD. Crypto has traded with high correlation to technology stocks through 2026, and the AI trade’s stumble spilled over into digital assets.
The macro calendar offers both risk and relief. Nvidia reports earnings on Tuesday. The Fed meets December 8 and 9. If the Fed delivers a quarter-point hike and signals the cycle is near its end, the dollar and yields could peak, easing pressure on crypto. A half-point move or hawkish guidance would extend the squeeze.
For SOL, the macro picture means the token’s near-term direction depends more on Bitcoin and the dollar than on Solana-specific developments. A stabilizing dollar and a Bitcoin rebound above $70,000 would set the stage for SOL to reclaim $86 and push toward $90.
The spot Solana ETFs launched in late 2025 have become a key source of institutional demand, and their flows explain much of SOL’s autumn weakness.
Cumulative net inflows across the U.S. spot Solana funds stood at $1.414 billion as of November 10. Total assets under management fell to $999.70 million, equal to 2.13% of Solana’s market value. The gap between those numbers reflects price decline: investors put in $1.414 billion, and the SOL they bought is now worth less.
The fund-level data shows where the money sits. The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, ticker BSOL, is the largest, with $1.095 billion in cumulative net inflows. Grayscale’s GSOL has drawn $120 million. Other funds, including 21Shares’ TSOL, VSOL, FSOL, SOEZ and MSOL, account for the rest. BSOL’s staking feature, which passes through Solana’s network rewards to holders, has made it the preferred vehicle.
Flows turned negative through the autumn. U.S. spot Solana ETFs lost $143.71 million in October, their first monthly outflow since June, as total net assets fell from $1.91 billion to $1.40 billion. The week ending October 30 saw $71.47 million of net outflows, the largest weekly outflow since launch. The week of November 2 to 6 added another $26.25 million of outflows, led by BSOL.
The selling extended into this week. Funds posted net outflows on November 5, November 6, November 9 and November 10. The November 10 outflow of $13.4 million was larger than the $7.7 million recorded on November 9. Over the five trading days through November 10, combined net outflows reached $46.1 million. No fund recorded an inflow on November 10.
The first sign of a turn came on November 12. Spot Solana ETFs took in a net $1.69 million, driven by BSOL, ending five sessions of outflows. The amount is small, but the direction matters.
The context also matters. Even after the outflows, cumulative inflows remain above $1.4 billion. The outflows of $46.1 million over five days equal 3.3% of cumulative inflows. ETF holders have trimmed positions but have not capitulated during a 16% monthly decline.
For the forecast, ETF flows are a swing factor. A return to steady inflows would provide the demand needed to hold the $77 to $82 zone and push SOL toward $90. A resumption of outflows at the pace of late October would remove that support and pressure the zone.
The derivatives market shows that leverage has been flushed from Solana, a condition that often precedes a bottom.
Solana open interest stood at $5.24 billion as of November 10, down 22.4% over 30 days from a peak of $7.19 billion. That decline of $1.95 billion represents leveraged positions that were closed, either voluntarily or through liquidation. Lower open interest means less forced selling is left in the system.
The liquidation events were severe. More than $1 billion of crypto liquidations hit the market on November 5, when SOL fell 6.6%. Friday’s broad selloff added another wave as Bitcoin broke below $69,000. Each cascade pushed SOL through support faster than spot buyers could absorb.
Funding rates are near neutral. The funding rate on Binance’s SOL/USDT perpetual contract stood at 0.0070% per eight hours, a level that shows neither longs nor shorts paying a significant premium. In past tops, funding has run far higher as longs crowded in. Neutral funding suggests the market is not heavily positioned in either direction.
Positioning still leans long. On Binance, 77.4% of SOL/USDT accounts were long as of November 10. That skew shows retail traders buying the dip, which can be a contrarian warning. If those longs are forced out on a further decline, the selling could accelerate.
Sentiment is fearful. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 31 on November 10, in the fear zone, down 7 points over seven days. Fear readings in the 20s and low 30s have historically coincided with local bottoms in crypto, though they can persist during extended bear phases.
The combination tells a clear story. Open interest has fallen sharply, funding is neutral, and sentiment is fearful. Those conditions describe a market that has cleared much of its excess leverage. The remaining risk is the 77.4% long skew among retail accounts, which could fuel one more flush below $77 before a durable bottom forms.
For the forecast, derivatives support the view that the selling is closer to its end than its beginning. A further leverage reset below $77 would be painful but would likely mark a stronger bottom. A hold above $77 with open interest stable would allow spot buyers to drive a recovery toward $90.
Solana’s fundamental story continues to develop even as the token price falls, and one announcement this week stood out.
The Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation, the central securities depository for U.S. markets, plans to connect its Tokenization Service to Solana in the second half of 2027. DTCC processes trillions of dollars of securities transactions each year, and a link to Solana would put the network at the center of efforts to tokenize traditional assets such as stocks, bonds and funds.
The DTCC plan fits a pattern. Major financial institutions have chosen Solana for tokenization pilots because of its high throughput and low fees. Asset managers have launched tokenized funds on the network, and stablecoin issuers have expanded their presence. Each new institutional use case adds transaction demand and strengthens the network’s long-term value.
The ETFs reflect that institutional interest. Seven U.S. spot Solana funds trade today, run by issuers including Bitwise, Grayscale, 21Shares and others. BSOL alone has drawn $1.095 billion since launch. The staking feature, which lets ETF holders earn network rewards, gives Solana funds an advantage over non-yielding crypto products.
Not every development has been positive. China’s central bank halted the Solana Accelerate China event in Shanghai under February 2026 crypto rules, a reminder that regulatory risk remains in some markets. Within the Solana ecosystem, the validator group Layer33 published an open letter on November 9 asking the Solana Foundation to pause retirements under its Solana Foundation Delegation Program, which supports smaller validators. The debate centers on how to balance decentralization with the foundation’s reduced role in staking.
The network itself has continued to operate at scale. Solana processes thousands of transactions per second with fees measured in fractions of a cent, and its decentralized exchanges and stablecoin activity have remained among the largest in crypto. That activity generates fee revenue and staking rewards that support the token’s value over time.
The gap between fundamentals and price is not new. Solana’s network growth through 2026 has not prevented the token from falling 72.9% from its all-time high. Token prices have followed broader crypto cycles and macro liquidity more closely than network milestones.
For the forecast, the DTCC plan and steady network activity provide long-term support, but they will not drive the near-term price. In the near term, macro conditions and Bitcoin set the direction. Over a longer horizon, institutional adoption strengthens the case that SOL’s current price undervalues the network.
The chart shows SOL testing a key support zone at deeply oversold levels, with clear markers on both sides.
The support ladder starts at $77 to $82, the zone buyers defended in June and July. Friday’s low of $77.85 tested the bottom of that range. A daily close below $77 would break the zone and open a move toward $75, a level traders are watching as the next major support. Below that, the June low near $60 marks the bottom of the year’s range.
Resistance stacks up above. The first level is $82.38, Friday’s 24-hour high. The second is $83.28 to $83.35, the November 10 and 11 closes. The third is $86.54 to $86.74, the November 8 and 9 closes, where the breakdown below $89 accelerated. The upside target sits at $90, the zone where SOL tested its 200-day moving average on November 5 and closed at $90.13 on November 6. Above that, $95 marks the November 4 close and $98.14 the November 4 high.
The upside target is defined. A move from $80.14 to $90 is a gain of $9.86, or 12.3%. Reclaiming $90 would put SOL back near its 200-day moving average and signal that the November breakdown has failed.
Momentum is at an extreme. The 14-day relative strength index fell to 21.52, deep in oversold territory. Readings below 25 have historically preceded relief rallies in Solana, though they can persist during capitulation phases. A bullish divergence, in which price makes a lower low while RSI makes a higher low, would strengthen the case for a bottom.
The longer structure shows a token in a broad range. SOL built an uptrend from the June low near $60 to a rejection at $120 to $125 in late September, then broke below that uptrend in early November. The current decline has retraced much of the summer rally. The $77 to $82 zone sits near the midpoint of the year’s range.
Volume patterns matter. Friday’s 24-hour volume reached $2.05 billion to $3.54 billion depending on the data source, above recent averages. A bounce from $77 on rising volume would confirm buyer strength. A break below $77 on heavy volume would confirm capitulation.
The technical verdict: bearish below $83.35, neutral between $83.35 and $86.74, constructive above $86.74, with $90 as the upside target and $77 as the line that, if broken on a closing basis, would open $75 and then $60.
Solana’s performance against other large tokens shows how its higher beta cuts both ways.
Bitcoin fell below $69,000 on Friday after a 6.6% daily drop. Ethereum lost the $2,000 level. XRP held $1.03 after briefly breaking below $1.00. SOL fell 1.6% over 24 hours and held above $80 on a closing basis after its dip to $77.85.
The weekly picture shows SOL falling in step. SOL is down 11% over seven days, in line with Bitcoin and Ethereum and slightly ahead of XRP’s 13% weekly decline. Over the month, SOL’s 16% decline from $95.42 matches the broader market’s slide.
The year-to-date comparison shows SOL’s deeper drawdown. Solana traded near $74 in early August, its lowest since the June low near $60, before rallying to $120 to $125 in late September. That rally doubled the token from its June low, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum. The November decline has reversed much of that gain.
Correlation remains high. SOL moves with Bitcoin on most days, and a sustained Bitcoin recovery is the single most important condition for a SOL rally. SOL’s higher beta means it typically rises faster than Bitcoin in recoveries and falls faster in declines. A 5% Bitcoin rebound would likely lift SOL by 7% to 10%.
The ETF comparison adds context. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold far larger assets than Solana funds, and their flows drive Bitcoin’s price more directly. Spot Ethereum ETF outflows shrank sharply in recent weeks, a sign that institutional selling has slowed. Spot XRP ETFs hold $1.16 billion after a year of trading. Solana funds, at $999.7 million, have a smaller base but a staking advantage.
The relative value case has improved. At $47.4 billion, Solana’s market capitalization is a fraction of Ethereum’s despite comparable or higher activity on some measures, including transaction counts and decentralized exchange volume. Investors who view Solana as a high-performance alternative to Ethereum see the current price as an entry point.
For the forecast, SOL’s beta means the token will lead any crypto recovery. If Bitcoin reclaims $70,000 and holds, SOL’s typical multiplier suggests a move toward $86 to $90. If Bitcoin drops toward $60,000, SOL would likely break $77 and test $75 or lower.
SOL faces a cluster of events over the next four weeks that could break the downtrend or extend it.
Nvidia’s earnings on Tuesday are the first test. Technology stocks and crypto have traded together through 2026, and Friday’s selloff in both was tied in part to Nvidia’s leadership turmoil. Strong results would ease fears over AI spending and support risk appetite. A miss would extend the risk-off move and push SOL toward $77 again.
Bitcoin’s response to the $68,000 to $69,000 zone is the second. Bitcoin’s break below $70,000 drove much of this week’s selling across crypto. If Bitcoin stabilizes and reclaims $70,000, the pressure on SOL would ease. A drop toward $65,000 would pull SOL below $77.
ETF flows are the third. The $1.69 million inflow on November 12 ended five sessions of outflows. A run of inflows would signal that institutional buyers see value near $80. A return to outflows at the late-October pace of $71 million per week would remove a key source of support.
The Fed’s December 8 and 9 meeting is the fourth. A quarter-point hike is 91% priced. If the Fed delivers that and signals the cycle is near its end, the dollar and yields could peak, a setup that historically supports crypto. A half-point hike or hawkish guidance would extend the squeeze.
Network developments are the fifth. The validator debate around the Solana Foundation Delegation Program could produce changes to staking economics. Further institutional announcements, building on DTCC’s 2027 plan, would support sentiment.
Leverage resets are the sixth. Open interest has fallen 22.4% from its peak, and further declines would reduce the risk of cascading liquidations. A rebuild of open interest on a rising price would signal new conviction.
Macro data is the seventh. U.S. retail sales, jobless claims and housing data over the next two weeks will shape the Fed’s decision. Softer data would ease rate pressure and support crypto. Friday’s producer price report already offered one soft data point, with the monthly rise of 0.3% coming in below the 0.4% forecast, and a second soft print would lower the odds of a half-point hike.
For the forecast, the catalysts tilt toward volatility. The first week carries the most downside risk, with Nvidia and Bitcoin’s response to $68,000 setting the tone. The Fed meeting offers an upside catalyst in early December. ETF flows will show whether institutional buyers return at current prices.
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The upside case for SOL rests on five drivers, and several are already in place.
The first is support. SOL sits in the $77 to $82 zone that buyers defended in June and July. Friday’s bounce from $77.85 to $80.14 showed buyers present at the bottom of that range. Zones that hold twice tend to hold a third time when the macro backdrop stabilizes.
The second is oversold momentum. The 14-day RSI at 21.52 is deep in oversold territory. Readings this low have historically preceded relief rallies in Solana, often of 10% to 20% within weeks.
The third is ETF stabilization. The November 12 inflow of $1.69 million ended five sessions of outflows. Cumulative inflows remain above $1.4 billion, and ETF holders have not capitulated. A return to steady inflows would provide demand at current prices.
The fourth is a leverage reset. Open interest has fallen 22.4% from $7.19 billion to $5.24 billion, and funding rates are near neutral. With less leverage in the system, forced selling has eased, and spot demand can drive the price.
The fifth is a macro turn. If the Fed delivers a quarter-point hike in December and signals the end of the cycle, the dollar and yields could peak. Bitcoin would likely rebound, and SOL would follow with its typical high beta.
The price path is defined. The first target is $82.38, Friday’s high. The second is $83.35, the November 10 close. The third is $86.74, the November 9 close. The primary upside target is $90, a gain of 12.3% from $80.14. That level marks the November 5 to 7 consolidation zone and the 200-day moving average test.
Beyond $90, the November 4 close at $95.61 and the November 4 high at $98.14 represent the next resistance levels. A break above $98 would reopen the path toward $100 and signal a broader trend reversal.
The bull case does not require Solana-specific news. It requires the crypto market to stop falling and Bitcoin to stabilize. Given the oversold RSI, the leverage reset and the first ETF inflow in a week, that combination could arrive within days.
The downside case depends on the macro squeeze continuing and SOL’s support zone giving way.
The first risk is a deeper Bitcoin decline. Bitcoin trades below $69,000 after a 6.6% daily drop. If it falls toward $60,000 to $65,000, SOL would almost certainly break $77.
The second risk is a hawkish Fed. A half-point hike in December or guidance that more hikes are coming would push yields and the dollar higher, extending the squeeze on risk assets.
The third risk is ETF outflows. The $1.69 million inflow on November 12 was small. A return to outflows at the late-October pace would remove a key source of demand. Spot Solana ETFs lost $143.71 million in October and $46.1 million in the five sessions through November 10.
The fourth risk is retail positioning. With 77.4% of Binance SOL/USDT accounts long, a break below $77 could trigger another wave of liquidations as those positions are forced out.
The fifth risk is a failed AI trade. Nvidia reports Tuesday after its chief executive resigned. A weak report would extend the selloff in technology stocks, which crypto has tracked closely through 2026.
The sixth risk is network governance. The validator debate and regulatory actions such as China’s halt of the Solana Accelerate event add uncertainty that could weigh on sentiment.
The price path is clear. A daily close below $77 triggers the bearish setup. The first target is $75, the next major support. The second is $70. The third is the June low near $60. A move from $80.14 to $60 is a decline of 25.1%.
The bear case would accelerate if Bitcoin breaks $65,000, if Nvidia disappoints on Tuesday, or if ETF outflows exceed $50 million in a week. Any two of those together would put $60 in play.
The bear case also has a timing element. The $77 to $82 zone held in June and July when the macro backdrop was calmer. This time it faces a Fed debating a half-point hike, a dollar at a 19-month high and stablecoin balances shrinking by $14.2 billion. Each failed test of support draws in fewer buyers, and a second test of $77 inside two weeks would carry higher odds of a break than Friday’s first one. ETF holders who bought between $120 and $125 in September now sit on losses above 33%, a level where patience tends to give way to redemptions. A weekly close below $77 would be the first since July and would mark the end of the range that has held through the summer and autumn.
Solana enters the weekend at $80.14 after a dip to $77.85 tested the bottom of the $77 to $82 support zone. The token is down 11% over seven days, 16% month to date and 72.9% from its all-time high of $295.90. The 14-day RSI sits at 21.52, deep in oversold territory.
The near-term bias stays bearish while SOL trades below $83.35. The macro backdrop, with a December Fed hike 91% priced, a 19-month high in the dollar, a 10-year Treasury yield at 5.16%, Bitcoin below $69,000 and $14.2 billion of stablecoin outflows, argues against a quick recovery.
The setup for a bounce is building. Open interest has fallen 22.4% from its peak, funding is neutral, and sentiment is fearful. Spot Solana ETFs recorded their first inflow in six sessions on November 12, with cumulative inflows still above $1.4 billion. DTCC’s plan to connect its Tokenization Service to Solana in 2027 adds to the long-term institutional case.
The levels are defined. On the downside, $77 is the critical support, with $75, $70 and the June low near $60 below. On the upside, $82.38 is Friday’s high, $83.35 and $86.74 the first resistance levels, and $90 the upside target, a 12.3% gain.
The catalysts are clustered. Nvidia reports Tuesday. ETF flow data arrives daily. The Fed decides December 8 and 9. Each of those events can move SOL by 5% to 10%.
The verdict for traders: SOL is bearish below $83.35, neutral up to $86.74, and targets $90 once Bitcoin stabilizes and the $77 floor holds. A daily close below $77 would invalidate the setup and open a move toward $75 and then $60. A daily close above $86.74 would confirm that the November breakdown has ended and put the $90 target within reach before the Fed meets. The oversold RSI, the leverage flush and the first ETF inflow in a week make the $77 to $82 zone the most likely place for the next rally to start.
The risk-reward from $80.14 favors patience over panic. The downside to $75 is $5.14, or 6.4%, while the upside to $90 is $9.86, or 12.3%. That 1.9-to-1 ratio improves further if the zone holds through Nvidia’s report and the next round of ETF flow data. Traders who wait for a close above $83.35 give up part of the move but gain confirmation that the November breakdown has stalled. Holders with a longer view can treat the zone the same way buyers did in June and July: as the floor of a range rather than the start of a collapse.
