Strategy, which holds large amounts of bitcoin, is set to be removed from Morgan Stanley Capital International's global indexes. With passive outflows from index removal weighing on the share price, attention is on whether it will also affect the company's ability to raise funds for additional bitcoin purchases.
CoinPost reported on Wednesday that MSCI decided in its November regular review to remove Strategy from index calculations, including the MSCI USA Index. The move takes effect after the close of trading on Nov. 30.
The decision follows new inclusion standards MSCI introduced on Oct. 15. MSCI decided to exclude non-operating companies with insufficient substantive business activity from eligibility for global indexes, and judged that Strategy meets that standard. Strategy has opposed the move, saying it discriminates against companies that hold digital assets.
The immediate market impact is expected to center on supply and demand for Strategy shares rather than bitcoin selling. That is because passive funds tracking MSCI indexes must sell Strategy shares in line with the index change. The index removal does not, however, lead to forced bitcoin selling by Strategy.
The size of the selling is not yet fixed. JPMorgan estimates cited by the outlet suggest selling of about $2.8 billion could occur. The outlet also raised the possibility of an additional $8.8 billion in outflows if other index providers take similar measures. The figures are estimates from a November 2025 report and should be treated with caution because they were calculated on the assumption of an MSCI regulatory proposal that was not implemented at the time.
The bigger focus is how the move affects Strategy's capacity to buy bitcoin. JPMorgan analysts said index removal could raise questions about Strategy's ability to raise funds through equity and debt.
Strategy has funded bitcoin purchases through an at-the-market equity issuance programme, issuing new shares based on its stock price. If the share price weakens due to index removal, the amount it can raise in the same way could also fall.
Strategy has already sold some bitcoin. Its third-quarter 8-K filing shows it sold bitcoin worth about $432 million to fund preferred dividend payments and the repurchase of its main preferred stock, STRC. The index removal cannot be taken as certain to lead directly to additional sales, but if funding pressures increase, it could affect the pace of bitcoin buying and the firm's holding strategy.
Looking ahead, a key point will be Strategy's weekly 8-K filings to be disclosed after Nov. 30. That is because continued new bitcoin purchases, or expanded bitcoin sales to meet funding needs such as dividends, could help gauge the impact of index removal.
Attention is also on whether the company uses a board-approved sale limit of up to $1.25 billion beyond what is needed for dividends and other purposes. If use of the limit expands, it could be interpreted as a signal that funding pressure is affecting its bitcoin holding strategy.
The decision has also put Strategy back at the center of debate over whether it is simply a company that holds bitcoin or one with substantive business activity. In the short term, outflows of passive funds and share-price volatility are expected to be key factors, while over the medium term fundraising capacity and room for additional bitcoin purchases are likely to emerge as core variables.
