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MSCI will remove Strategy from its global indices after the close on November 30, a decision likely to trigger several billion dollars in stock sales. However, the danger does not lie in an immediate sale of the company’s bitcoins. The exclusion mainly threatens the financing circuit that allows it to accumulate them.

In Brief

  • MSCI will exclude Strategy from its global indices on November 30, a decision that could lead to several billion dollars in stock sales.
  • This exclusion threatens Strategy’s financing by reducing demand for its stock and complicating its future capital raises.
  • Bitcoin could suffer indirect consequences, as Strategy risks slowing its purchases without being forced to sell its reserves.
  • MSCI tightens its eligibility criteria by excluding companies whose business resembles that of an investment fund.
  • The evolution of Strategy’s stock price and its financing capacity will be decisive in measuring the lasting effects of this exclusion.

An exclusion that goes beyond forced sales

MSCI has classified Strategy among “non-operational” companies, considering that its financial profile is closer to that of an investment fund than a traditional company. Its stock will notably be removed from the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices.

The decision requires funds replicating these indices to rebalance their portfolios. This will therefore produce several effects over different timeframes :

  • Passive funds will have to sell the stocks that become ineligible ;
  • Strategy will lose an automatic source of market demand ;
  • A less valued stock will make future capital raises more costly ;
  • The company might then have fewer resources to buy bitcoin.

The exact volume of outflows remains uncertain. Strategy had estimated that its exclusion would trigger about $2.8 billion in liquidations. JPMorgan mentioned an amount that could reach $8.8 billion if other index providers took the same stance. This second figure is therefore an expanded scenario, not the amount directly caused by MSCI.

The company also downplayed the shock. In its response to the consultation, it indicated that MSCI-linked funds held about 13 million of its shares, or 3.1% of ordinary shares outstanding and less than one day’s trading volume. This liquidity could absorb the sales but does not erase the lasting loss of index demand.

The bitcoin buying machine becomes more vulnerable

Strategy finances its bitcoin accumulation by issuing stock and debt. This model works particularly well when its stock price carries a premium relative to the value of its digital assets: the company can then raise capital on favorable terms and convert it into BTC.

Its exclusion from the indices does not require it to sell its reserves. However, it may reduce demand for its stock and compress that premium. Issuing new securities would then become more dilutive, as Strategy would need to issue more shares to raise the same amount.

This is where MSCI’s decision can indirectly affect the bitcoin market. It does not create additional BTC supply but risks slowing down one of its most regular institutional buyers. The mechanism is less dramatic than a forced sale but potentially more lasting.

The drop in the stock accentuates this fragility. Strategy had lost about 20% since the start of 2026 at the time of the announcement, compared to nearly 15% for bitcoin. The stock fell another 2.5% in extended trading following the decision.

The group remains free to issue debt, preferred shares, or new common shares. Their cost will depend more on active investor demand, now deprived of the mechanical support of some index funds.

MSCI Redefines the Boundary Between Company and Fund

The decision ultimately does not rest on a specific ban on crypto treasuries. MSCI had initially considered excluding companies whose digital assets exceeded 50% of the balance sheet before extending its reflection to all structures with the characteristics of an investment vehicle.

The new method starts by checking if a company has substantial operational assets. If it fails this first filter, five financial ratios are examined. A company flagged by at least four of them becomes ineligible. Existing constituents must fail the test for two annual periods to be removed.

This approach explains why Yellow Cake, which accumulates uranium, is also among the excluded companies. Metaplanet, another bitcoin holder, will also be removed, while the Ethereum treasury company SharpLink remains under observation. The issue thus goes beyond crypto: MSCI seeks to prevent its stock indices from including vehicles whose main function is to hold an asset.

For crypto treasury companies, the signal is nevertheless severe. The more their reserves become dominant and their operational activity secondary, the more they risk losing their company status in the eyes of index providers. Their success in accumulation can thus trigger their exclusion from the passive system that precisely facilitated this strategy.

The real deadline comes after the November 30 rebalancing. It will then be necessary to monitor not only stock sales but especially the evolution of Strategy’s market premium and the conditions of its upcoming capital raises. These will determine whether MSCI has simply created a one-off shock or has permanently jammed its bitcoin buying machine.

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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.