Key Takeaways

  • Strategy is down 45% from its high a year ago after bitcoin fell below what it paid for its coins and its STRC preferred stock slipped under $100, a slide that also hit MARA Holdings and Coinbase.
  • Executive Chairman Michael Saylor says the next bitcoin bull market has begun, but Strategy’s bitcoin per share is down 3.7% in 2026 because its share count grew faster than its holdings.
  • CEO Phong Le put the stock at 1.15x the value of its bitcoin on the third-quarter call, below the 1.22x break-even for selling stock to buy bitcoin.
  • Until that premium tops 1.22x, Strategy’s shares look likely to trail any bitcoin rally, and MSCI’s Nov. 11 index decision is the next test.

Strategy (MSTR) is down 45% from its high a year ago on bitcoin’s slide, and its founder says the turn has come.

“We’re at the beginning of the next bitcoin bull market,” Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said in Strategy’s third-quarter release on Oct. 29.

Other crypto stocks fell with bitcoin. MARA Holdings (MARA), which also holds bitcoin, is down 62% from its high. Coinbase (COIN), which held 40% of Strategy’s coins in custody as of February, is down 53%.

Below cost, then below $100

By June 30, bitcoin was down to about $58,700 from a 2025 peak of $126,296. That’s well under the $75,451 average Strategy has paid for its 849,327 coins.

STRC, its preferred stock, raised $7.52 billion in the first half of the year, then traded under its $100 stated amount from late May. Strategy halted sales, raised its dividend rate to 12% in July, and has bought back $2.04 billion of it this year.

That cut off Strategy’s way to buy bitcoin without new common shares.

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The rebound came from bitcoin

In the third quarter, bitcoin rose 43% and Strategy’s stock 76%. Its $44.75 of diluted EPS came almost entirely from a $20.91 billion gain on its coins, as revenue slipped 3%.

So analysts’ estimates swing with bitcoin, from a loss of $17.44 a share in fiscal 2026 to a profit of $23.67 in fiscal 2027:

The software business won’t steady them: it made $4.6 million before tax in fiscal 2025.

Late in October, Binance suffered a $6.3 billion hack that pushed bitcoin under $80,000, the same week CFO Andrew Kang said he’d leave on Nov. 5.

Same coin, different problems

MARA held 35,577 bitcoin at June 30, and it faces a Texas question. Bernstein lowered its MARA target to $10 from $17 after Gina Hinojosa’s win over Gov. Greg Abbott. MARA’s 2-gigawatt Matagorda County site is still waiting on ERCOT’s approval. Will its Nov. 9 report say whether a new governor slows that?

Coinbase needs traders, and they haven’t come back with bitcoin. Its third-quarter transaction revenue was $590.2 million, down from $1.0 billion a year earlier and below the second quarter’s $599.2 million, even as bitcoin climbed. A bitcoin rally lifts the value of Strategy’s coins right away, while Coinbase has to wait for its customers.

Bitcoin per share is going the wrong way

Strategy has grown its bitcoin holdings 26% this year, yet bitcoin per share is down 3.7%. It raised $21.23 billion of equity, and diluted shares have almost doubled since 2024:

By the second quarter of 2026, they reached 352.53 million.

New shares grow bitcoin per share only when buyers pay a healthy premium for Strategy’s coins. On the third-quarter call, CEO Phong Le put the stock at 1.15x the value of its bitcoin. That’s short of the 1.22x break-even he gave in May.

Its preferred dividends look safe for now: Strategy says its $5.07 billion of USD assets covers 3.4 years of dividends and interest.

MSCI goes first

On Nov. 11, MSCI names the companies its new index rule removes. Funds tracking its indexes hold about 13 million Strategy shares, by the company’s count. Wall Street has already cut its average target by more than half in a year, to $234.

Saylor’s call isn’t enough on its own

Saylor may be right about bitcoin. But until the premium tops 1.22x, Strategy can’t sell stock to buy bitcoin at a profit, by management’s own math. I’d expect the shares to trail any bitcoin rally.

A new STRC sale near $100 would signal a turn. Before that, MSCI’s list could push index funds to sell.

So what is Strategy stock actually worth?

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!