Summary
- Polymarket saw about $200,000 wagered in a US midterm election prediction market one hour before a poll was released.
- The user reportedly earned $77,000 after betting $200,000 and $622,600 on victories by Pete Ricketts and Abdul El-Sayed, respectively.
- The researchers said repeated large bets placed just before poll releases may point to the use of nonpublic information and warrant further investigation.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
A large bet was placed in a prediction market just before the release of polling results related to the US midterm elections.
The New York Times reported on November 7 that researchers at Vanderbilt University analyzed Polymarket data and found that one user bet about $200,000 on Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts winning re-election one hour before a poll was released.
The user reportedly made a profit of $77,000 on the trade.
The same user executed a similar trade in Michigan's Senate race. On October 31, the user bet about $622,600 on Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed to win. A poll released the following day showed El-Sayed leading by 11 percentage points.
The repeated appearance of large bets just before poll releases has raised questions about whether the trader obtained nonpublic information in advance. Brett Goldstein, a researcher at Vanderbilt University's Institute of National Security, said the pattern was difficult to dismiss as mere coincidence and that further investigation was needed.
Uk Jin
