The one miss is the useful part. In South Carolina, Republican Darline Graham, appointed in July to the seat held by her late brother Lindsey Graham, was priced at 69.5%. Democrat Annie Andrews won, the first Democrat the state has sent to the Senate since 1998. A favorite at those odds should lose roughly three times in ten, so a single upset is calibration working rather than breaking. However, this was a unique case as Graham was objectively a weak candidate with no experience or qualification other than being the sister of the late former senator Lindsay Graham, and endorsed by Trump, which in this cycle was not a positive thing.