Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to recover in the crypto market. After tumbling from the $75,000 range to an intraday $73,000 range on November 9, it has bounced intermittently but with limited upside, and it continues to trade below $75,000. The fact that BTC could not keep pace on the same day the U.S. stock market rose 2.34% on the S&P 500 and 2.73% on the Nasdaq Composite highlights the weakness in crypto-specific supply and demand.
The first trigger cited for the plunge is forced liquidation of leveraged positions. According to a report by The Block citing CoinGlass data, total 24-hour liquidations across crypto assets reached about $1.15 billion, of which roughly $1.04 billion was longs. For BTC alone the figure was about $309 million, while Ethereum (ETH) accounted for more than $500 million. The pattern was a chain reaction in which falling prices created collateral shortfalls, and forced settlements in turn invited further selling.
The scale of liquidations was more pronounced in Ethereum. According to CoinGecko prices, ETH fell to about $2,119 in the morning of November 9, down 5.3% over 24 hours, far exceeding BTC's 1.9% decline over the same period. ETH's 24-hour liquidations totaled more than $462 million, of which about 92%, or $425 million, was longs. The ETH/BTC ratio, which shows the BTC price per ETH, fell to 0.0283, its lowest since mid-July.
Note: Liquidation figures are rolling 24-hour tallies at the time of reporting. ETF flows are based on confirmed Farside Investors data.
On the supply-demand side, concentrated large BTC deposits to exchanges stand out. CryptoQuant's "Exchange Whale Ratio" shows the share of total BTC inflows to exchanges accounted for by the 10 largest transactions. From late October into November, sharp jumps above 0.4 occurred multiple times, and large deposits were repeated as the price fell from the $80,000 range to the $74,000 range. However, deposits to exchanges do not necessarily mean selling; they also occur with changes in custody, collateral transfers and OTC settlement. When spot demand is thinning, the very accumulation of supply that could turn into selling becomes a cautionary signal.
Residual leverage also cannot be ignored. CryptoQuant's "Estimated Leverage Ratio" is an estimate calculated by dividing futures open interest by exchange BTC reserves. It rose from around 0.22-0.24 in mid-October to about 0.265 around November 2. By November 8-9 it had fallen to around 0.249, but that is only about a 6% decline from the peak and remains above mid-October levels. Some excess positions may have been cleared out by liquidations, but it is too early to conclude that the conditions that amplify price swings have been resolved.
The fact that spot buyers have not returned also undermines the durability of any rebound. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $411.9 million in net outflows on November 6, with BlackRock's IBIT alone shedding $403 million. For the week of November 2-6, outflows totaled about $1.2817 billion. Spot ETH ETFs also saw about $365.2 million in net outflows over the same period, and the market is waiting for trading to resume after the weekend.
The decline in stablecoin balances sitting on exchanges also points to thinning buying power. CryptoQuant's exchange reserves of ERC20-standard stablecoins shrank from about $75 billion-$76 billion in late April to about $49.7 billion in early November. The decline is roughly $25 billion, equivalent to about one-third in percentage terms. That said, these figures also fluctuate with moves into DeFi or transfers to other chains, so it does not mean the same amount of money has vanished from the market.
The weakness in supply and demand is also showing up in price indicators. The weekly average Coinbase Premium Index through November 8 was in negative territory, and the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio averaged 0.98, below 1. This suggests weak relative demand in the U.S. spot market and little market-buy pressure.
Note: All are estimates based on CryptoQuant analysis, and indicators with different aggregation scopes should not be compared as a single time series.
The focus going forward comes down to three points. First, whether large exchange deposits settle down. Second, whether the estimated leverage ratio falls further. Third, whether spot buying continues across multiple exchanges, including Coinbase. With the U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI) due for release on the evening of November 10 Japan time, the reaction in rates and the dollar could amplify BTC's price moves. Even if BTC recovers to $75,000-$75,500, it will likely be pushed back by selling into rallies again unless spot demand accompanies the move.
Market participants are divided over whether the post-liquidation rebound marks a bottom or is merely a supply-demand adjustment in progress. Bulls point to the fact that more than $400 million in long liquidations has washed out a considerable amount of excess leverage, and note that RSI is approaching oversold territory. Bears argue that the foundation for a rally will not be in place until improvement in spot CVD and a reversal in ETF flows are confirmed. The evidence for calling a bottom lies not in the fact of the lows, but in whether buyers return to absorb the BTC that could be sold and the market can transform into one that can support prices without relying on leverage.
