Wall Street faces an incomplete picture of U.S. inflation ahead of Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish the annual percentage change for October. Meanwhile, traders are facing reported odds of 84% for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, according to Coin Bureau.
The missing annual figure stems from a gap in government price collection during a 43-day shutdown. The BLS said it "will not publish 12-month percent changes" for October because it did not collect price data for October 2025 during the shutdown.
Without the year-over-year comparison, investors and policymakers will have to assess the latest inflation picture using other available information. Coin Bureau said traders would need to rely on unofficial estimates, which range from 3.6% to 4.0%.
Inflation Has Climbed From Its February Level
The last official annual inflation reading stood at 3.7% in September, according to the figures cited by Coin Bureau. That represented an increase from 2.4% in February, before the Iran war sent oil prices soaring.
Inflation subsequently reached 4.2% in May, its highest level since April 2023. The figures illustrate the increase in reported annual inflation between February and May, followed by a September reading that remained above the February level.
The absence of an October year-over-year figure financial creates an additional complication for market participants trying to assess the latest inflation trend. Rather than receiving the usual annual comparison, traders will have to consider unofficial estimates spanning a 0.4-percentage-point range.
Fed Rate Expectations in Focus
The inflation data arrives as expectations for Federal Reserve policy remain a central concern for financial markets. Coin Bureau reported that traders were assigning an 84% probability to a Fed rate hike ahead of the report.
However, the available information does not identify the specific pricing instrument or methodology behind that probability. The 84% figure should therefore be understood as the odds reported by Coin Bureau, rather than a confirmed Federal Reserve decision.
The missing annual inflation figure also means Tuesday's report will not provide the standard 12-month percentage change for October. The unofficial estimates cited by Coin Bureau range from 3.6% to 4.0%, while September's last official reading was 3.7%.
Writer: Victoria Hale Technology & Blockchain Writer
Victoria Hale writes about blockchain technology, digital infrastructure, and the intersection of emerging technologies with finance. Her articles explore how new protocols and systems are shaping the evolving digital economy.
She prioritises clarity and accuracy when explaining technical developments to a general audience.
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The articles on Hokanews are here to keep you updated on the latest buzz in crypto, tech, and beyond—but they’re not financial advice. We’re sharing info, trends, and insights, not telling you to buy, sell, or invest. Always do your own homework before making any money moves.
Hokanews isn’t responsible for any losses, gains, or chaos that might happen if you act on what you read here. Investment decisions should come from your own research—and, ideally, guidance from a qualified financial advisor. Remember: crypto and tech move fast, info changes in a blink, and while we aim for accuracy, we can’t promise it’s 100% complete or up-to-date.
