US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Hits 19-Month High, Can It Break 103.15?

Dollar Hits 19-Month High as Markets Bet on More Fed Hikes

The dollar climbed to a 19-month high against major peers on Thursday as traders added to bets on further Federal Reserve tightening, Reuters reported. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.15% to 103.02, its highest since April 2025, while the yen edged toward 160 per dollar.

Dollar: Fed Hawks in Control

Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a December hike on Tuesday and opened the door to a possible half-point increase, CNBC reported. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said last month that the Fed needs at least two more quarter-point hikes. Some brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, now expect another Fed hike early next year on top of one in December, Reuters said. The Fed’s next decision is on December 9.

Fed officials are “falling over themselves to talk up rate hikes” after a “hotter-than-forecast October CPI report,” said Gavin Friend, senior markets strategist at National Australia Bank. New York Fed President John Williams is set to appear on a panel late on Thursday, and “any guidance from Williams will be seized on,” Friend said.

In Japan, top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura warned it was “too early to forget” the intervention during the summer. Japan’s wholesale inflation rose to 7.1% in October from 6.8% in September, the Bank of Japan said, and many analysts in a Reuters poll expect the BOJ’s next hike as soon as next month.

Euro: The Rate Gap Works Against It

The ECB is also leaning toward a December hike. Chief Economist Philip Lane told Bloomberg Television that “it would be prudent indeed to hike” if the information the ECB has in December is the same as today, with euro zone inflation at 4% in October. Even so, the euro traded near $1.1096 on Thursday.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

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In my view, a central bank signaling a hike would normally support its currency, but the euro area’s backdrop is weaker. Euro zone growth slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter from 0.6%, and Fitch cut France’s outlook to negative on October 30. EUR/USD is trading the rate gap, and US hike bets are rising faster than European ones.

Pound: Growth Meets Expectations

Sterling slipped 0.1% to $1.3266, Reuters reported. The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter, up from 0.5% in the second, the Office for National Statistics said, matching the forecast in a Reuters poll. That was the strongest growth since early 2024, Bloomberg reported. The Bank of England has attributed some of that strength to spending on artificial intelligence and a small, temporary boost from the government’s fiscal plan, according to Reuters.

In my view, because the figure only matched expectations, it gave sterling little fresh support against a stronger dollar.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Breaks Above 102.83 as 103.15 Comes Into Focus

The US Dollar Index is trading near 103.04 on the 4-hour chart after breaking above the 102.83 zone, the pivot point, a level calculated from the previous period’s high, low and close that traders use to judge direction. That zone capped the index in mid-October. A rising trendline, a line connecting higher lows since early November, supports the move, and both moving averages, which track average prices over time, are below price.

Resistance, where sellers may return, is 103.15, then 103.46. Support, where buyers may step in, is 102.83, then 102.53. RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of buying and selling strength, is near 75, which is overbought, meaning prices rose very fast, so a pause would not surprise me. I stay bullish while DXY holds 102.83. A close above 103.15 would open 103.46.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Breaks Below 1.1098 as 1.1056 Comes Into Focus

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1077 on the 4-hour chart after breaking below its rising trendline from late October. It has also dropped under the 1.1098 pivot zone, which had held as a floor since mid-October, and both moving averages are falling above price.

Support is 1.1056, then 1.1033. Resistance is 1.1098, then 1.1131. RSI is near 29, which is oversold, so a short bounce is possible. The bias stays bearish while EUR/USD holds below 1.1098, and a close below 1.1056 would open 1.1033.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Slips Below 1.3279 as 1.3228 Comes Into Focus

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3258 on the 4-hour chart. The pound was turned back at a falling trendline on November 10, then broke below its rising trendline from mid-October. It now sits under its 1.3279 pivot and both moving averages.

Support is 1.3228, then 1.3186. Resistance is 1.3279, then 1.3325. RSI is near 27, also oversold. Sellers remain in control while the pound stays below 1.3279, and a close below 1.3228 would open 1.3186.