US jobs: resilient employment, but weaker hiring and wage growth

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes its employment report this Friday, 6 November, at 1.30pm UK time. Consensus expects 65,000 new non-farm payrolls (NFP), an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth slowing to 2.9% year on year, its lowest level since May 2021.

The picture points to a still-resilient labour market, but with a slower pace of hiring and increasingly contained wage pressures. Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to change employment dynamics, prompting restructuring to reallocate resources and raising productivity across the economy.

Markets scale back expectations for Fed rate rises

This combination of resilient employment and lower wage pressure weakens the case for an intense and prolonged monetary tightening cycle.

Markets have gradually moderated their expectations. At the end of September, they were pricing in four increases of 25 basis points, taking rates to 5.00%. They now anticipate only two, taking rates to 4.50%.

The jobs report will help establish whether this trend continues. A labour market losing momentum would be consistent with a more patient Federal Reserve (Fed), while an upside surprise could put renewed upward pressure on the yield curve.

Effective federal funds rate and annual growth in non-farm payrolls and average hourly earnings

Source: TradingView, 5 November 2026

Potential effects on gold, bitcoin, the dollar and equities

Stronger-than-expected job creation, particularly if accompanied by firmer wage growth, would be consistent with the recent acceleration in US economic activity and could sustain expectations of elevated interest rates. Citi's economic surprise index is close to multiyear highs after rising almost 50 points over the past two months. In this scenario, the US dollar and government bond yields could maintain the strength seen in recent months, while financing costs would continue to influence equity markets.

Conversely, a downside surprise could help consolidate the recent rebound in alternatives to fiat money, such as gold and bitcoin. That recovery began following the midterm election result, which points to potential institutional gridlock and greater uncertainty.

Gold (yellow, right) and the US Dollar Index (DXY; green, left), with correlation coefficient

Source: TradingView, 5 November 2026