US stocks are heading into the midterm election results amid heightened market anxiety, with CNN's Fear & Greed Index falling to 19 and the Nasdaq trading 8% below its October peak. However, JPMorgan's election scenarios suggest that a Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress is the only outcome among those examined that could trigger a stock market decline.
The figures and market assessment were highlighted by Coin Bureau in a post on X. The post also cited prediction market odds giving Democrats more than 90% probability of winning the House of Representatives and more than 70% probability of taking the Senate.
Market Sentiment Falls Into Extreme Fear
CNN's Fear & Greed Index has fallen by half over the past month to a reading of 19, according to the figures cited by Wu Blockchain. The index reflects the level of fear and optimism among market participants, with the latest reading indicating an environment of extreme fear.
The broader market weakness is also reflected in the Nasdaq, which is down 8% from its October peak. These indicators show that investors are entering the election results period with sentiment already under pressure.
The combination of a sharply lower sentiment reading and the Nasdaq's decline provides the backdrop for the market's response to the midterm results. However, the election outcome itself may not carry the same implications across all possible political scenarios.
JPMorgan Sees One Election Scenario That Could Pressure Stocks
JPMorgan's scenarios, as summarized by Wu Blockchain, identify only one outcome in which stocks could fall: Democrats winning both chambers of Congress. That means a Democratic victory in both the House and Senate is the specific political result singled out as a potential downside scenario in the analysis.
Prediction markets are currently assigning Democrats more than 90% odds of winning the House and more than 70% odds of winning the Senate. Those probabilities point to strong expectations for Democratic gains in both chambers, although markets-implied odds are not guarantees of the final results.
The distinction between winning one chamber and controlling both is central to the scenario described in the post. JPMorgan's assessment, as presented by Wu Blockchain, does not identify other election outcomes as scenarios that would cause stocks to fall.
JPMorgan Says AI Regulation Concerns Are Overstated
The analysis also addresses concerns about potential regulation of artificial intelligence. JPMorgan considers fears surrounding AI regulation to be overstated, arguing that President Donald Trump would not sign legislation that limits AI.
This view suggests that concerns about restrictive AI legislation should be considered alongside the political assumptions underpinning the market scenarios. The post does not provide further details about specific proposed bills or the precise legislative measures covered by JPMorgan's assessment.
Polling stations were scheduled to begin closing at 6 PM ET, marking the start of the results process. Investors were therefore approaching a key political event with CNN's Fear & Greed Index at 19, the Nasdaq 8% below its October peak, and prediction markets assigning Democrats more than 90% odds in the House and more than 70% in the Senate.
Writer: Victoria Hale Technology & Blockchain Writer
Victoria Hale writes about blockchain technology, digital infrastructure, and the intersection of emerging technologies with finance. Her articles explore how new protocols and systems are shaping the evolving digital economy.
She prioritises clarity and accuracy when explaining technical developments to a general audience.
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The articles on Hokanews are here to keep you updated on the latest buzz in crypto, tech, and beyond—but they’re not financial advice. We’re sharing info, trends, and insights, not telling you to buy, sell, or invest. Always do your own homework before making any money moves.
Hokanews isn’t responsible for any losses, gains, or chaos that might happen if you act on what you read here. Investment decisions should come from your own research—and, ideally, guidance from a qualified financial advisor. Remember: crypto and tech move fast, info changes in a blink, and while we aim for accuracy, we can’t promise it’s 100% complete or up-to-date.
