News roundup: Kalshi reportedly facing CFTC charges; fresh lawsuits in Missouri and Arkansas; Novig exposed to NY enforcement; takers lose big on midterms
I am not a lawyer. I look at the litigation around prediction markets and I see valid points on both sides.
But what I come back to from a more practical viewpoint is that it’s hard to believe that Congress intended to allow sports betting in 50 states. Yes, there is a material difference in how prediction markets work vis-a-vis sportsbooks. But the activity that the vast majority of users are engaging in is pretty clearly identifiable as sports betting.
I am not saying this argument from attorney Daniel Wallach is valid or invalid from a legal standpoint — I will leave it to the lawyers and the judges — but I do think this is worth considering from a practical standpoint as well.
The impact of the rise of sports event contracts is that a lot of gambling regulators and operators have been blindsided. I realize that some of you might react to that this way:
But think about it like this:
States have spent years legalizing and standing up new sports betting industries. They depend on the revenue from fees and taxes and have crafted rules or regulations around it, whether you like those rules/regulations or not.
They also now have to deal with federally legal sports betting in their jurisdictions, whether they asked for it or not.
If sports betting could already happen federally through prediction markets, why did any of them waste their time with this?
Operators have collectively paid billions of dollars to states to offer sports betting, and have submitted to licensure and taxation regimes. They have made huge investments in being regulated (again, whether you like that regulation or not).
Some operators don’t feel like they can even compete in prediction markets, given the legal uncertainty overhanging all of it. For some, their licenses in various jurisdictions could be in legitimate jeopardy if they dipped their toes into event contracts.
States have spent years legalizing and standing up new sports betting industries. They depend on the revenue from fees and taxes and have crafted rules or regulations around it, whether you like those rules/regulations or not.
They also now have to deal with federally legal sports betting in their jurisdictions, whether they asked for it or not.
If sports betting could already happen federally through prediction markets, why did any of them waste their time with this?
They also now have to deal with federally legal sports betting in their jurisdictions, whether they asked for it or not.
If sports betting could already happen federally through prediction markets, why did any of them waste their time with this?
Operators have collectively paid billions of dollars to states to offer sports betting, and have submitted to licensure and taxation regimes. They have made huge investments in being regulated (again, whether you like that regulation or not).
Some operators don’t feel like they can even compete in prediction markets, given the legal uncertainty overhanging all of it. For some, their licenses in various jurisdictions could be in legitimate jeopardy if they dipped their toes into event contracts.
Some operators don’t feel like they can even compete in prediction markets, given the legal uncertainty overhanging all of it. For some, their licenses in various jurisdictions could be in legitimate jeopardy if they dipped their toes into event contracts.
You can say that prediction markets are disruptive and that states and operators hate competition. And there’s no doubt some truth to that. But until two years ago, none of this was viewed as a possibility.
If you look at it objectively, you can see why the parties that have invested heavily in a regulated gambling industry are pissed. Because some of that investment could be money pissed away if sports event contracts are allowed in perpetuity.
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The Event Horizon briefing
A quick look at what matters most in prediction markets.
📍 The Big Story
A call to Kalshi from inside the house?
From Politico late Tuesday:
Wall Street regulator poised to bring charges against prediction market giant Kalshi: “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating whether Kalshi failed to properly notify the agency about dozens of new products that were in the works, said the person, who was granted anonymity to discuss the unannounced enforcement activity. The agency’s private notification to Kalshi suggests the charges could land soon, though they could also result in a settlement.”
“The Kalshi investigation has been in the works for months, the person said. And while Selig’s CFTC has aggressively embraced the prediction markets — particularly in their legal fight against a group of state officials who allege the companies are violating existing gambling laws — it marks fresh scrutiny that the agency is now dialing up on those companies.”
“The Kalshi investigation has been in the works for months, the person said. And while Selig’s CFTC has aggressively embraced the prediction markets — particularly in their legal fight against a group of state officials who allege the companies are violating existing gambling laws — it marks fresh scrutiny that the agency is now dialing up on those companies.”
🔭 What To Watch For
You guessed it: More litigation.
This time, prediction market operators in Missouri are seeking to fend off the forthcoming enforcement actions from the state attorney general.
Underdog sues Missouri after prediction markets shutdown order (SBC Americas): “The lawsuit, dated Sunday, Nov. 8 and filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Missouri, claims the company stands to suffer serious harm to its business if Missouri officials make further efforts to shut down sports prediction markets.”
“The lawsuit also claims that on Friday, Nov. 6, [AG Catherine] Hanaway’s office notified Underdog directly that the state intended to begin taking unspecified enforcement actions against the company within three days.”
Polymarket US sues Missouri over sports contracts crackdown (NEXTPredict): “Polymarket US, operated by QCX LLC, filed suit Nov. 9, nearly two months after Attorney General Catherine Hanaway ordered it to stop offering sports contracts to Missouri residents without a gambling license.”
“The 40-page complaint, brought in the Eastern District of Missouri, names Hanaway and five Missouri Gaming Commission officials.”
Missouri Cease-and-Desist Leads to Robinhood Lawsuit (Sports Betting Dime): “Robinhood filed its lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, requesting a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, and permanent injunction against the state from enforcing its gambling laws against the company’s prediction market offerings.”
“The company cited Missouri’s Sep. 16 cease-and-desist notice demanding Robinhood stop offering its sports events contracts in the state or obtain a [Missouri] Gaming Commission license as the impetus for the lawsuit.”
Underdog sues Missouri after prediction markets shutdown order (SBC Americas): “The lawsuit, dated Sunday, Nov. 8 and filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Missouri, claims the company stands to suffer serious harm to its business if Missouri officials make further efforts to shut down sports prediction markets.”
“The lawsuit also claims that on Friday, Nov. 6, [AG Catherine] Hanaway’s office notified Underdog directly that the state intended to begin taking unspecified enforcement actions against the company within three days.”
“The lawsuit also claims that on Friday, Nov. 6, [AG Catherine] Hanaway’s office notified Underdog directly that the state intended to begin taking unspecified enforcement actions against the company within three days.”
Polymarket US sues Missouri over sports contracts crackdown (NEXTPredict): “Polymarket US, operated by QCX LLC, filed suit Nov. 9, nearly two months after Attorney General Catherine Hanaway ordered it to stop offering sports contracts to Missouri residents without a gambling license.”
“The 40-page complaint, brought in the Eastern District of Missouri, names Hanaway and five Missouri Gaming Commission officials.”
“The 40-page complaint, brought in the Eastern District of Missouri, names Hanaway and five Missouri Gaming Commission officials.”
Missouri Cease-and-Desist Leads to Robinhood Lawsuit (Sports Betting Dime): “Robinhood filed its lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, requesting a temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, and permanent injunction against the state from enforcing its gambling laws against the company’s prediction market offerings.”
“The company cited Missouri’s Sep. 16 cease-and-desist notice demanding Robinhood stop offering its sports events contracts in the state or obtain a [Missouri] Gaming Commission license as the impetus for the lawsuit.”
“The company cited Missouri’s Sep. 16 cease-and-desist notice demanding Robinhood stop offering its sports events contracts in the state or obtain a [Missouri] Gaming Commission license as the impetus for the lawsuit.”
Recall that Kalshi also filed suit in Missouri in late October. These lawsuits all argue, among other things, that federal commodities laws preempt state gambling laws.
The state was in line at the clerk’s office on Monday too, filing a counterclaim against Novig alleging a violation of UIGEA and a violation of state merchandising statutes. The AG also asks for a judgment declaring Novig to be a public nuisance in Missouri.
There are new lawsuits in Arkansas to talk about too; more below in the roundup.
🔥 Hot Markets
Anthropic IPO, amid speculation that an announcement could be imminent.
💬 Quote/Tweet Of The Day
“I think the move to online gaming is going to be much more pushed upon states that have withheld for the sake of supporting tribal gaming compacts.”
“I think the move to online gaming is going to be much more pushed upon states that have withheld for the sake of supporting tribal gaming compacts.”
— New Mexico Rep. Derrick Lente (more in the roundup)
📝 New Markets
Filings for new markets listed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Kalshi: Another grab bag today. Prime Minister markets, weather, drug trials, more traditional commodities (corn, coffee, cattle, etc.), plus a filibuster market. Here’s a sample:
Crypto.com (CDNA): Crypto strikes
Kalshi: Another grab bag today. Prime Minister markets, weather, drug trials, more traditional commodities (corn, coffee, cattle, etc.), plus a filibuster market. Here’s a sample:
Crypto.com (CDNA): Crypto strikes
ProphetX: IPOs
ProphetX: IPOs
📊 Volume Tracking For Monday, Nov. 9
Kalshi volume: $3.13 billion
Parlays: 67.3% of volume
Sports: 15.0% of volume
Crypto: 14.2% of volume
Kalshi volume: $3.13 billion
Parlays: 67.3% of volume
Sports: 15.0% of volume
Crypto: 14.2% of volume
Parlays: 67.3% of volume
Sports: 15.0% of volume
Crypto: 14.2% of volume
Trend line:
Trailing seven-day volume on exchanges:
Kalshi: $29.3 billion
Polymarket US: $3.96 billion
DraftKings’ DKeX: $1.46 billion
Novig: $855 million
Underdog Exchange: $743 million
CDNA: $714 million
Rothera: $454 million
ProphetX: $35.1 million
Kalshi: $29.3 billion
Polymarket US: $3.96 billion
DraftKings’ DKeX: $1.46 billion
Novig: $855 million
Underdog Exchange: $743 million
CDNA: $714 million
Rothera: $454 million
ProphetX: $35.1 million
Data is provided by TickerTracker.
News roundup
Everything else important that happened in or was written about prediction markets:
🚨 Important stuff
Polymarket, OG.com sue Arkansas days after AG targets Kalshi (SBC Americas): “On Monday, the two prediction markets operators sued Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin and members of the Arkansas Racing & Gaming Commission in separate federal courts. Both suits ask judges to bar the state from applying its gambling laws to their event contracts.”
“The filings came five days after Griffin sued Kalshi in state court, calling the market leader a “pocket-sized bookie.” Both Polymarket and OG.com cited that case as evidence to assert they are next.”
From Twitter/X:
Polymarket, OG.com sue Arkansas days after AG targets Kalshi (SBC Americas): “On Monday, the two prediction markets operators sued Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin and members of the Arkansas Racing & Gaming Commission in separate federal courts. Both suits ask judges to bar the state from applying its gambling laws to their event contracts.”
“The filings came five days after Griffin sued Kalshi in state court, calling the market leader a “pocket-sized bookie.” Both Polymarket and OG.com cited that case as evidence to assert they are next.”
“The filings came five days after Griffin sued Kalshi in state court, calling the market leader a “pocket-sized bookie.” Both Polymarket and OG.com cited that case as evidence to assert they are next.”
From Twitter/X:
⚖️ Legal and regulatory
Coinbase, Kalshi, Kraken parent back CFTC in legal fight over stock perpetual futures (CoinDesk): “Coinbase Global, Kalshi, Kraken’s parent company Payward, DRW Holdings, Jump Trading and Paradigm filed a letter in support of the CFTC with the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York in a lawsuit brought by the Capital Markets Alliance (CMA) earlier this month.”
“The CMA sought to challenge the CFTC’s approval of open-ended futures contracts for stocks, comparable to those in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. The CMA said it is backed by prominent traditional finance firms, including broker-dealers such as Cboe and Citadel Securities.”
More context from NewsCord: “CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in a statement on November 3 that single-stock perpetual futures could be traded for the first time on CFTC-designated contract markets that handle security futures products and are also registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The six firms said reclassifying the products as swaps would shut US retail investors out of the market because the SEC has not yet put in place an exchange-traded framework for retail investors.”
“The Capital Markets Alliance Association argued that perpetual futures with no expiration date should be regulated as security-based swaps, and a federal judge said the plaintiff was likely to succeed in its claim that the CFTC exceeded its statutory authority. US District Judge Valerie Caproni said the contracts appeared to qualify as swaps rather than security futures, and she denied the CMAA's request for a temporary restraining order because the group failed to demonstrate imminent, irreparable harm. Coinbase legal representative Molly Abraham supported the amicus effort, and the proposed brief Molly Abraham shared said the agencies jointly sought public comment on whether perpetual contracts should be classified as security futures.”
5 Incoming Attorneys General Who Could Shape Prediction Market Legal Battles (Covers): “Five Democrats won attorney general races previously held by Republicans during the midterm elections, giving Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio new leadership as their states confront prediction markets offering sports event contracts.”
“Three will succeed Republicans who signed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey’s push for Supreme Court review of its dispute with Kalshi. The other two will take office in states that still prohibit sports betting.”
Prediction market Kalshi registers as New Mexico lobbyist employer ahead of legislative session (Source NM): “The company has not yet hired a New Mexico lobbyist, and its most-recent filings in early October show it has not yet spent any money on lobbying activities in the state.”
“In a statement, Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick did not respond to Source NM’s questions about which legislation or issues Kalshi might seek to influence in New Mexico, or whether it intended to hire a local lobbyist. Instead, she reiterated the company’s contention that New Mexico and other states have no legal authority to regulate it.”
Coinbase, Kalshi, Kraken parent back CFTC in legal fight over stock perpetual futures (CoinDesk): “Coinbase Global, Kalshi, Kraken’s parent company Payward, DRW Holdings, Jump Trading and Paradigm filed a letter in support of the CFTC with the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York in a lawsuit brought by the Capital Markets Alliance (CMA) earlier this month.”
“The CMA sought to challenge the CFTC’s approval of open-ended futures contracts for stocks, comparable to those in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. The CMA said it is backed by prominent traditional finance firms, including broker-dealers such as Cboe and Citadel Securities.”
“The CMA sought to challenge the CFTC’s approval of open-ended futures contracts for stocks, comparable to those in the cryptocurrency derivatives market. The CMA said it is backed by prominent traditional finance firms, including broker-dealers such as Cboe and Citadel Securities.”
More context from NewsCord: “CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in a statement on November 3 that single-stock perpetual futures could be traded for the first time on CFTC-designated contract markets that handle security futures products and are also registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The six firms said reclassifying the products as swaps would shut US retail investors out of the market because the SEC has not yet put in place an exchange-traded framework for retail investors.”
“The Capital Markets Alliance Association argued that perpetual futures with no expiration date should be regulated as security-based swaps, and a federal judge said the plaintiff was likely to succeed in its claim that the CFTC exceeded its statutory authority. US District Judge Valerie Caproni said the contracts appeared to qualify as swaps rather than security futures, and she denied the CMAA's request for a temporary restraining order because the group failed to demonstrate imminent, irreparable harm. Coinbase legal representative Molly Abraham supported the amicus effort, and the proposed brief Molly Abraham shared said the agencies jointly sought public comment on whether perpetual contracts should be classified as security futures.”
More context from NewsCord: “CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said in a statement on November 3 that single-stock perpetual futures could be traded for the first time on CFTC-designated contract markets that handle security futures products and are also registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The six firms said reclassifying the products as swaps would shut US retail investors out of the market because the SEC has not yet put in place an exchange-traded framework for retail investors.”
“The Capital Markets Alliance Association argued that perpetual futures with no expiration date should be regulated as security-based swaps, and a federal judge said the plaintiff was likely to succeed in its claim that the CFTC exceeded its statutory authority. US District Judge Valerie Caproni said the contracts appeared to qualify as swaps rather than security futures, and she denied the CMAA's request for a temporary restraining order because the group failed to demonstrate imminent, irreparable harm. Coinbase legal representative Molly Abraham supported the amicus effort, and the proposed brief Molly Abraham shared said the agencies jointly sought public comment on whether perpetual contracts should be classified as security futures.”
“The Capital Markets Alliance Association argued that perpetual futures with no expiration date should be regulated as security-based swaps, and a federal judge said the plaintiff was likely to succeed in its claim that the CFTC exceeded its statutory authority. US District Judge Valerie Caproni said the contracts appeared to qualify as swaps rather than security futures, and she denied the CMAA's request for a temporary restraining order because the group failed to demonstrate imminent, irreparable harm. Coinbase legal representative Molly Abraham supported the amicus effort, and the proposed brief Molly Abraham shared said the agencies jointly sought public comment on whether perpetual contracts should be classified as security futures.”
5 Incoming Attorneys General Who Could Shape Prediction Market Legal Battles (Covers): “Five Democrats won attorney general races previously held by Republicans during the midterm elections, giving Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio new leadership as their states confront prediction markets offering sports event contracts.”
“Three will succeed Republicans who signed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey’s push for Supreme Court review of its dispute with Kalshi. The other two will take office in states that still prohibit sports betting.”
“Three will succeed Republicans who signed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey’s push for Supreme Court review of its dispute with Kalshi. The other two will take office in states that still prohibit sports betting.”
Prediction market Kalshi registers as New Mexico lobbyist employer ahead of legislative session (Source NM): “The company has not yet hired a New Mexico lobbyist, and its most-recent filings in early October show it has not yet spent any money on lobbying activities in the state.”
“In a statement, Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick did not respond to Source NM’s questions about which legislation or issues Kalshi might seek to influence in New Mexico, or whether it intended to hire a local lobbyist. Instead, she reiterated the company’s contention that New Mexico and other states have no legal authority to regulate it.”
“In a statement, Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick did not respond to Source NM’s questions about which legislation or issues Kalshi might seek to influence in New Mexico, or whether it intended to hire a local lobbyist. Instead, she reiterated the company’s contention that New Mexico and other states have no legal authority to regulate it.”
📣 Industry news
Polymarket says annualized revenue has topped $1.8 billion (CNBC): “Polymarket’s revenue is being fueled by growth in that U.S. exchange, which operates as a separate trading venue from its decentralized finance international platform. The domestic exchange saw more than $14.5 billion in notional volume in October, up from $4 billion in June, according to data analytics platform TickerTracker.”
“That increase has been driven by a series of highly traded events, including the FIFA World Cup over the summer and the start of the NFL season in September. Volume has been supported by the growing popularity of Combo event contracts, which work similarly to sportsbooks’ multi-leg parlays, [and] accounted for more than 70% of volume traded on the platform on Sunday.”
Robinhood Earned 8% Less per Prediction Market Contract as Trading Rose 21% (Finance Magnates): “Robinhood earned about 1.05 cents per event contract in the third quarter, down from 1.15 cents three months earlier, an FM Intelligence analysis published today (Tuesday) found. Its customers traded about 21% more contracts over the quarter, while revenue from them rose 11%.”
“Event contracts brought in $173 million between July and September, more than the $120 million Robinhood earned from crypto and about 12% of its net revenue.”
“The reported figure also mixes in a second business. Rothera, the joint venture Robinhood controls with Susquehanna International Group, accounted for $28 million of the $173 million, against $17 million a quarter earlier, according to Robinhood's earnings presentations.”
Kalshi Is Cozy With Trump — But It’s Ramping Up Dem Hires and Campaign Spending (The Intercept): “The hiring spree of former Biden officials and spending on Democratic candidates come as prediction markets are facing increasing scrutiny over betting on elections and a spate of suspicious trades from Washington about policy moves and even military action.”
“The industry may need all the lobbyists it can get if progressives gain power in the next Congress. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who is angling to chair the House Financial Services Committee, said in a letter last week that she wants to ‘rein in predatory lending and predatory platforms, including prediction markets, so that our constituents keep more of their hard-earned dollars in their pockets.’”
Polymarket says annualized revenue has topped $1.8 billion (CNBC): “Polymarket’s revenue is being fueled by growth in that U.S. exchange, which operates as a separate trading venue from its decentralized finance international platform. The domestic exchange saw more than $14.5 billion in notional volume in October, up from $4 billion in June, according to data analytics platform TickerTracker.”
“That increase has been driven by a series of highly traded events, including the FIFA World Cup over the summer and the start of the NFL season in September. Volume has been supported by the growing popularity of Combo event contracts, which work similarly to sportsbooks’ multi-leg parlays, [and] accounted for more than 70% of volume traded on the platform on Sunday.”
“That increase has been driven by a series of highly traded events, including the FIFA World Cup over the summer and the start of the NFL season in September. Volume has been supported by the growing popularity of Combo event contracts, which work similarly to sportsbooks’ multi-leg parlays, [and] accounted for more than 70% of volume traded on the platform on Sunday.”
Robinhood Earned 8% Less per Prediction Market Contract as Trading Rose 21% (Finance Magnates): “Robinhood earned about 1.05 cents per event contract in the third quarter, down from 1.15 cents three months earlier, an FM Intelligence analysis published today (Tuesday) found. Its customers traded about 21% more contracts over the quarter, while revenue from them rose 11%.”
“Event contracts brought in $173 million between July and September, more than the $120 million Robinhood earned from crypto and about 12% of its net revenue.”
“The reported figure also mixes in a second business. Rothera, the joint venture Robinhood controls with Susquehanna International Group, accounted for $28 million of the $173 million, against $17 million a quarter earlier, according to Robinhood's earnings presentations.”
“Event contracts brought in $173 million between July and September, more than the $120 million Robinhood earned from crypto and about 12% of its net revenue.”
“The reported figure also mixes in a second business. Rothera, the joint venture Robinhood controls with Susquehanna International Group, accounted for $28 million of the $173 million, against $17 million a quarter earlier, according to Robinhood's earnings presentations.”
“The reported figure also mixes in a second business. Rothera, the joint venture Robinhood controls with Susquehanna International Group, accounted for $28 million of the $173 million, against $17 million a quarter earlier, according to Robinhood's earnings presentations.”
Kalshi Is Cozy With Trump — But It’s Ramping Up Dem Hires and Campaign Spending (The Intercept): “The hiring spree of former Biden officials and spending on Democratic candidates come as prediction markets are facing increasing scrutiny over betting on elections and a spate of suspicious trades from Washington about policy moves and even military action.”
“The industry may need all the lobbyists it can get if progressives gain power in the next Congress. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who is angling to chair the House Financial Services Committee, said in a letter last week that she wants to ‘rein in predatory lending and predatory platforms, including prediction markets, so that our constituents keep more of their hard-earned dollars in their pockets.’”
“The industry may need all the lobbyists it can get if progressives gain power in the next Congress. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who is angling to chair the House Financial Services Committee, said in a letter last week that she wants to ‘rein in predatory lending and predatory platforms, including prediction markets, so that our constituents keep more of their hard-earned dollars in their pockets.’”
📖 Everything else
Kalshi Market Makers Record Big Profits As Takers Lose On Midterm Elections (InGame): “Kalshi’s market makers made big profits at takers’ expense during last week’s midterm elections, according to an InGame analysis, with two Texas statewide races among the biggest wins for market makers and [losses] for takers. Millions more went in market makers’ direction on markets for House and Senate control, as well as Senate elections in Michigan and Maine.”
“Kalshi’s market for the Texas Senate race was the biggest win for market makers dating back to the start of 2026, when InGame’s records begin. As the 2024 presidential election was believed to be a win for takers, and few other non-sports events have attracted similar volume, it may have been the biggest ever non-sports win for market makers.”
How well did Kalshi predict the midterms? We crunched the numbers. (CBS News): “Ultimately, the candidates who Kalshi markets favored won 95% of congressional or gubernatorial midterm races, according to a CBS News analysis of market odds from a week before the election.”
“While Kalshi’s accuracy improved as Election Day drew closer, a New York Times analysis found that it lagged behind other forecasting models, including the one from political statistician Nate Silver, for most of the election cycle.”
Kalshi Market Makers Record Big Profits As Takers Lose On Midterm Elections (InGame): “Kalshi’s market makers made big profits at takers’ expense during last week’s midterm elections, according to an InGame analysis, with two Texas statewide races among the biggest wins for market makers and [losses] for takers. Millions more went in market makers’ direction on markets for House and Senate control, as well as Senate elections in Michigan and Maine.”
“Kalshi’s market for the Texas Senate race was the biggest win for market makers dating back to the start of 2026, when InGame’s records begin. As the 2024 presidential election was believed to be a win for takers, and few other non-sports events have attracted similar volume, it may have been the biggest ever non-sports win for market makers.”
“Kalshi’s market for the Texas Senate race was the biggest win for market makers dating back to the start of 2026, when InGame’s records begin. As the 2024 presidential election was believed to be a win for takers, and few other non-sports events have attracted similar volume, it may have been the biggest ever non-sports win for market makers.”
How well did Kalshi predict the midterms? We crunched the numbers. (CBS News): “Ultimately, the candidates who Kalshi markets favored won 95% of congressional or gubernatorial midterm races, according to a CBS News analysis of market odds from a week before the election.”
“While Kalshi’s accuracy improved as Election Day drew closer, a New York Times analysis found that it lagged behind other forecasting models, including the one from political statistician Nate Silver, for most of the election cycle.”
“While Kalshi’s accuracy improved as Election Day drew closer, a New York Times analysis found that it lagged behind other forecasting models, including the one from political statistician Nate Silver, for most of the election cycle.”
2026 Midterms Research Grant (Kalshi Research): Kalshi is awarding up to $1 million in grants to up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets. Bring your best ideas, and we will provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.
2026 Midterms Research Grant (Kalshi Research): Kalshi is awarding up to $1 million in grants to up to 50 research projects on midterm prediction markets. Bring your best ideas, and we will provide any publicly available Kalshi data you need.
Kalshi plans to open prediction market for Brown acceptance rates (The Brown Daily Herald): “On Oct. 20, Kalshi filed a notice with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission stating that the company would open prediction markets on undergraduate acceptance rates and applicant numbers at Brown. Kalshi has filed similar notices for 21 other universities, including every Ivy League school.”
“If markets open, there will be options to make predictions on the University’s admissions data, including whether Brown’s admission rate and total number of applicants will be above, below or between certain values for a given admissions cycle. Users can make these bets until Dec. 31 or one week after the University’s Common Data Set — which provides standardized admissions information — is released for the most recent admitted class, whichever occurs first. The filing does not include options to bet on more specific admissions statistics, such as early decision applicant numbers.”
Kalshi plans to open prediction market for Brown acceptance rates (The Brown Daily Herald): “On Oct. 20, Kalshi filed a notice with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission stating that the company would open prediction markets on undergraduate acceptance rates and applicant numbers at Brown. Kalshi has filed similar notices for 21 other universities, including every Ivy League school.”
“If markets open, there will be options to make predictions on the University’s admissions data, including whether Brown’s admission rate and total number of applicants will be above, below or between certain values for a given admissions cycle. Users can make these bets until Dec. 31 or one week after the University’s Common Data Set — which provides standardized admissions information — is released for the most recent admitted class, whichever occurs first. The filing does not include options to bet on more specific admissions statistics, such as early decision applicant numbers.”
“If markets open, there will be options to make predictions on the University’s admissions data, including whether Brown’s admission rate and total number of applicants will be above, below or between certain values for a given admissions cycle. Users can make these bets until Dec. 31 or one week after the University’s Common Data Set — which provides standardized admissions information — is released for the most recent admitted class, whichever occurs first. The filing does not include options to bet on more specific admissions statistics, such as early decision applicant numbers.”
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