- Bitcoin’s bull run began before Trump’s election amid ETF demand and the 2024 halving.
- Trump’s crypto policies boosted optimism, while tariffs triggered uncertainty.
- Without Trump, Bitcoin might have rallied more slowly, with a lower peak and fewer market shocks.
Bitcoin’s journey from $67,800 in November 2024 to an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, followed by a decline to $74,000 in November 2026, has been shaped by economic and political forces.
One influential factor has been Donald Trump’s return to the White House. His election victory, crypto-friendly policies, Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, and changing trade policies all impacted the markets.
While his administration initially boosted optimism, its tariff decisions also contributed to market volatility.
But how much of Bitcoin’s performance can be attributed to Trump, and what might have happened without his political influence?
Bitcoin Bull Market Started Before Trump’s Election
Bitcoin’s rally was already underway before Trump’s November 2024 election victory. Two major developments helped drive the market: the approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April.
Bitcoin climbed from $42,000 at the beginning of 2024 to above $73,000 in March. By Trump’s election victory on November 5, it was already trading around $67,800-$69,000.
His victory introduced another bullish catalyst, as investors anticipated favorable regulations, government support, and increased institutional participation.
Bitcoin subsequently crossed $100,000 for the first time in December 2024. Coinbase Institutional identified Trump’s election victory as the most important crypto market catalyst of the fourth quarter of 2024.
This suggests that his victory accelerated an existing bull market rather than creating it.
How Trump’s Administration Changed the Crypto Industry
Meanwhile, in January 2025, the SEC established a crypto task force to develop a regulatory framework for digital assets. The move was a shift away from the previous administration’s enforcement-focused approach.
In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using Bitcoin already held by the federal government through asset forfeitures.
Although the government committed not to sell Bitcoin held in the reserve, the initiative did not introduce immediate purchases from the open market. Its significance was therefore primarily strategic rather than a direct source of new demand.
In July 2025, Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law, establishing a federal framework for payment stablecoins.
Further regulatory progress followed in May 2026, when the Senate Banking Committee advanced the proposed CLARITY Act. But Bitcoin was already in a bear market, so the development did not affect price.
In other words, favorable policy developments did not always translate into immediate price gains. This shows that regulatory progress can strengthen the industry’s long-term outlook without necessarily creating immediate buying pressure.
Trump’s Tariffs Introduced Market Volatility
Meanwhile, Trump’s influence was not exclusively bullish. His tariff announcements created uncertainty in global financial markets, affecting equities and investors’ risk appetite.
Bitcoin traded alongside other speculative assets, making it vulnerable to market sell-offs. A notable example occurred on October 10, 2025, when Trump announced plans for additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports.
The announcement contributed to an extraordinary crypto liquidation event, with more than $19 billion in positions liquidated within 24 hours.
Another example was in January 2026, when Bitcoin fell below $88,000 before recovering towards $90,000 after Trump softened tariff threats connected to Greenland.
These developments highlight the contradictory nature of his influence: crypto-friendly policies supported optimism, while trade decisions sometimes undermined market confidence.
Without Trump, Bitcoin might have avoided some political shocks, although it would also have missed certain positive policy catalysts.
Economic Forces That Continued to Drive Bitcoin
Several independent factors continued to influence Bitcoin regardless of political developments.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted substantial inflows following their January 2024 launch. CoinGecko reported $54.4 billion in cumulative net inflows by the end of August 2025.
Glassnode also linked Bitcoin’s October 2025 breakout towards $126,000 to $2.2 billion in weekly ETF inflows and accumulation by smaller investors. However, demand was not consistently positive. Late 2025 also recorded $3.79 billion in monthly ETF outflows.
Monetary policy was another important influence. Higher interest rates and expectations of tighter financial conditions reduced the attractiveness of speculative investments such as Bitcoin.
Global liquidity, bond market conditions, and Bitcoin’s halving cycle also influenced investor behavior.
These factors explain why Bitcoin could experience substantial losses even while Washington was pursuing more favorable cryptocurrency policies.
Bitcoin’s Performance During Trump’s First Year
Bitcoin’s performance during Trump’s first year back in office challenges the assumption that his presidency automatically benefited the cryptocurrency.
Between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2026, Bitcoin declined 18.43%, falling from around $109,600 to $89,400. By February 2026, it had lost roughly 47% from its October 2025 record.
Bitcoin subsequently reached a reported monthly low of $62,148 in August 2026 before recovering. By November 7, 2026, it was trading around $78,500, 38% below its all-time high.
The performance demonstrates that favorable political policies cannot guarantee sustained price appreciation.
What Would Bitcoin Look Like Without Trump?
Estimating Bitcoin’s alternative trajectory without Trump’s political influence is speculative.
1. A slower rally and lower peak
Without Trump’s election victory and regulatory announcements, Bitcoin likely would have seen less political speculation. But ETF adoption, institutional investment and the halving would still have supported demand. Still, without election-related optimism, the rally might have been slower.
One illustrative scenario places Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak between $90,000 and $105,000 rather than above $126,000.
2. Fewer Political Market Shocks
Without Trump’s tariff decisions, the October 2025 liquidation event might have unfolded differently. However, excessive leverage and changing liquidity conditions could still have triggered a major correction.
Bitcoin eventually hit a low of $57,700 in July 2026, representing a 52% decline from its peak. This was considerably smaller than previous cycle drawdowns, when Bitcoin lost 80%–90% of its value from peak levels.
In other words, without Trump, Bitcoin could still have experienced a significant correction, leaving its price around its current level of $75,000.
Final Thought
Without Trump’s influence, institutional adoption, monetary policy and liquidity could still have driven Bitcoin towards a similar valuation. His influence has only affected the speed and volatility of its journey more than its eventual price.
Ultimately, the 2024–2026 Bitcoin cycle was not simply a Trump rally. It was driven by institutional adoption, monetary policy and liquidity, amplified by political expectations. Trump influenced the direction and intensity of Bitcoin’s movements, but he was never the only force determining its value.
Related: Bitcoin Price Analysis: Aggressive Weekly Breakdown Targets $57,800 Liquidity
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