Summary

  • In my view, XRP’s narrative and technical momentum no longer seem strong enough to justify a 2x daily leveraged instrument.
  • I believe the scarcity I previously saw in XRP’s escrow mechanism now looks more like predictable dilution, which changes the supply outlook.
  • Bitcoin is on a bearish path despite positive catalysts, and in my opinion this removes the momentum that previously supported XRP and leveraged exposure to it.
  • High volatility amplifies volatility drag, which, in my view, acts like a hidden additional cost on top of the fund’s expenses in multiday holding periods.
  • A volatility compression or a Bitcoin recovery could revive XRP’s momentum, but I personally expect a sideways accumulation phase rather than a V-shaped rebound.

When I shared my first analysis on Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP), I remember that XRP had rarely had so many factors in its favor. The SEC lawsuit closed, and the regulatory

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