XRP’s Wednesday breakout lasted one candle. On Thursday, sellers met it just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and drove price back inside the channel it had cleared.
Key Takeaways
- Rejected near $1.33, above the 100-day SMA.
- Back inside the channel, below the 200-day.
- Fell less than Bitcoin over 24 hours.
- $1.20 floor now doubles as channel midline.
The reversal arrived with a market-wide unwind of the post-midterm rally, detailed in our report on Bitcoin dropping under $76.5K. On the Binance daily chart, XRP traded at $1.25 at 16:37 UTC, down 3.91% on the day.
Out on Wednesday, Inside Again by Thursday
XRP had traded in a tight range near $1.25 for several sessions before Wednesday’s green candle broke it in one move. That candle cleared the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $1.26, the 200-day SMA at $1.2734 and the upper rail of XRP’s descending channel, then closed near $1.31, just under the 100-day SMA at $1.3117. The retracement levels in this analysis are measured from the August low near $0.99 to the late-August high near $1.70.
Thursday extended the move as high as $1.33, briefly above the 100-day, and stopped short of the 0.5 retracement near $1.34. Sellers then took price through every level Wednesday had cleared, down to an intraday low near $1.24. XRP now trades roughly where the breakout started.
Why the Rising 100-Day Held
Of XRP’s three main moving averages, only the 100-day is climbing. It has turned higher since September and now stands at $1.3117, while the 200-day at $1.2734 has flattened and the 50-day at $1.3858 is sloping down toward the 100-day. A rising average tends to make a tougher ceiling than a flat one, because the level buyers have to clear lifts a little every session. If the 50-day keeps falling and crosses under the 100-day, the new order of the averages would show the short-term trend weakening against the medium-term one.
Thursday’s drop left XRP below all three. The averages span only about 11 cents, from the 200-day up to the 50-day, and the nearest one overhead is the 200-day, roughly 2 cents above price. Beyond the 50-day, the 0.382 retracement near $1.43 completes the main trend ceiling.
The rejection also came on XRP’s first approach to the 100-day from below since the late-October drop that swept price down to $1.20. A first retest of a level lost in a sharp sell-off often draws selling from holders who bought above it. Wednesday added a second group: buyers who entered above $1.27 are now underwater, and their exits could add to supply on any rebound. Thursday’s wick above $1.3117 fits that pattern, though the rest of the market was falling at the same time.
That overlap raises the question of how much of the rejection belongs to XRP alone. The linked report cites CoinMarketCap data from 15:40 UTC showing XRP down about 4.7% over 24 hours, against roughly 5.2% for Bitcoin and 6.5% for Ether, shortly after an hour in which about $460 million in positions, nearly all of them longs, were liquidated. That rolling 24-hour window explains the gap with the daily candle’s 3.91%. By that snapshot, XRP did not underperform. Its damage was structural instead: Bitcoin handed back a rally, while XRP handed back a breakout that had cleared its channel by only a few cents and could be erased in a single session.
Inside the Channel, Not Testing It
The channel runs from the late-September highs, and by Thursday its upper rail had descended to roughly the level of the 200-day SMA. Wednesday’s close near $1.31 was clearly outside it. Thursday’s low near $1.24 and the current price are both inside.
That rules out a throwback, the pattern in which price returns to a broken channel line from above and holds it. XRP has already crossed through the rail, so the breakout is no longer facing a retest. What remains open is whether Wednesday’s channel breakout becomes a confirmed bull trap, a move that pulls buyers in above resistance before reversing below it. Avoiding that label would require XRP to retake the 0.618 level near $1.26, the 200-day SMA and the rail, which now overlap.
Below price, the channel lines up with older support. Its midline runs close to the $1.20 floor left by the late-October sweep, so the round number and the channel’s center share one area. The lower rail runs in the area of the 0.786 retracement, close to $1.14.
The Close and the Zone in Between
Momentum adds little. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) reads 40.56, just 0.29 points above its signal line at 40.27. The signal line is a moving average of the RSI itself, and crossings between the two mark shifts in momentum. Wednesday’s rally produced a small bullish crossover, and Thursday’s drop has pulled the RSI to within a fraction of the line, with both well under the 50 midpoint.
A bull trap is confirmed by the daily close, not by an intraday print. At 16:37 UTC the candle had about seven hours left and around 68.6 million XRP traded, so its final size stays open until 00:00 UTC. A close under the 0.618 level near $1.26 and the 200-day at $1.2734 could confirm the trap. A close between the 200-day and the 100-day at $1.3117 would lift XRP above the rail again but leave it beneath the level that rejected it, so the trap would be unconfirmed without being cleared. Only a close above $1.3117 might start to neutralize it.
Thursday’s range, $1.24 to $1.33, frames both paths
If $1.24 holds
Should buyers defend the intraday low and lift XRP above the 200-day at $1.2734 within the next 24 to 48 hours, the $1.24–$1.25 area would form a higher low above the $1.20 floor. A move through Thursday’s $1.33 high would then open a test of the 0.5 level near $1.34 and the 50-day SMA at $1.3858.
If $1.24 breaks
A move under the intraday low would expose the $1.20 floor and the channel midline, and an RSI drop below its signal line would add weight to that path. Losing $1.20 would bring the 0.786 level, close to $1.14, into view, about 9% under the current price.
Further out: the 0.236 level near $1.53 marks the early-October supply shelf, the late-August spike high sits around $1.70, and the August base lies near $0.99, just under $1.
Outside the chart: neither path assumes the broader sell-off has ended. Further selling across crypto, or a recovery in the US tech stocks that fell alongside it, could carry XRP through these levels whatever its own chart shows.
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
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