The token is down 19.5% since November 4 and trades 5.8% above its $0.9886 yearly low | That's TradingNEWS
Key Points
- XRP dropped to $1.050, down 4.3% on the day and 19.5% from its $1.3048 close on November 4, with daily RSI at 26.5.
- Spot XRP ETFs logged a $529,500 outflow and four flat days, cutting net assets to $1.34B against $1.81B of inflows.
- The $1.00–$0.9886 zone is key support; a daily close above $1.18 opens the $1.26–$1.31 zone and the $1.30 target.
XRP lost more ground on Tuesday and fell to $1.050, a fresh low for this leg. The token opened the session at $1.0985, tried higher, and topped at $1.1056 before the US inflation report. After the print the bid faded and the selling sped up. On the USDT pair the token traded as low as $1.0473. At $1.050, XRP is down 4.3% from Monday’s $1.0976 close and has broken below Monday’s $1.07502 low. That low was already the weakest daily price in 60 completed sessions.
The bigger picture is worse. XRP closed November 4 at $1.3048 after touching $1.3391 intraday. In four trading days it has fallen 19.5% from that close and 21.6% from that high. One month ago the token traded at $1.40, and on October 10 it closed at $1.4020. A year ago it sat at $2.57. From the $3.6618 all-time high set in July 2025, XRP has now given back 71%. With 63,516,606,953 tokens in circulation, its market value is down to $66.50 billion, and it ranks sixth among digital assets.
The daily candles over the past week show steady distribution. On November 5 the token dropped 7.46% in one session, from $1.3048 to $1.2075. On the following days it lost 2.39%, 1.27%, 4.43% and 1.20%. On Tuesday it fell again. That makes six straight losing sessions, each closing near its low, a pattern that shows sellers in control across every time frame. Daily RSI sits at 26.5, deep in oversold territory and still falling, not turning up.
Trading volume confirms that this is a liquidation, not a slow drift. Around $2.19 billion of XRP changed hands over the last 24 hours, and Monday’s volume was the heaviest daily figure of the past two weeks. Heavy volume on a down day, with price closing near the low, usually means holders are leaving the market, not just stepping aside for a few sessions.
The setup for traders is simple. XRP sits 6% above its 52-week low of $0.9886 and 5% above the $1.00 round number. Both levels are now in range. The token has lost every support that held through October, and it is trading below all of its major moving averages. Any bounce from here has to begin by reclaiming the $1.10–$1.12 area, which flipped from support to resistance on Tuesday.
Tuesday’s breakdown was not specific to XRP. The October Consumer Price Index came in hot across the board, and crypto took the hit along with equities, gold and most currencies. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month against a 0.3% forecast. Core CPI rose 0.3% against 0.2%. It is the third straight core print at 0.3% and the fifth this year.
The breakdown left little room for optimism. Shelter rose 0.3%, food 0.5%, energy 0.7% and gasoline 1.0%. The only notable offset was a 1.2% drop in used cars. Because of the 2025 government shutdown there is no clean year-over-year figure in this report, so the market has to trade the monthly numbers. Those numbers say inflation is running far above the Fed’s target and is not cooling.
Fed officials had already set the bar before the release. Governor Christopher Waller said a 50bp hike should be considered if core inflation runs around 0.3%. Core then printed exactly 0.3%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for two more hikes and flagged faster tightening over the winter. Futures moved to 85% odds of a 25bp hike and 15% odds of a 50bp hike at the December 9 FOMC. Before the report the 50bp case had zero. A 25bp move would take the federal funds range to 4.00%–4.25%.
The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 19 basis points to 4.736%. The 10-year traded at 4.99% and the 30-year at 5.29%. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 102.00. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,496.17, the Nasdaq lost 0.87% to 25,034.07, and the VIX rose to 21.06. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no yield, and XRP sits at the far end of that risk spectrum.
The calendar does not give crypto much relief. The Producer Price Index lands Friday. The Fed minutes come November 18. The November CPI arrives December 10, one day after the FOMC decides. Each release will be read for evidence on whether the Fed moves 25bp or 50bp. Until that question is settled, high-beta tokens like XRP will trade with a heavy rate overhang.
XRP has not been trading on its own fundamentals. It has been trading as a high-beta version of Bitcoin, and Bitcoin has been weak. On Tuesday Bitcoin traded at $73,124 after the CPI report, and Ethereum sat at $2,023.92. XRP has fallen faster than both. Last week XRP dropped 7.1%, against a 2.3% decline for Bitcoin and 0.8% for Ethereum. On a week where the whole market was soft, XRP was the weakest of the large tokens.
The XRP-to-Bitcoin ratio shows the underperformance more clearly. At $1.050 against $73,124, XRP is worth 0.00001436 BTC, or 1,436 satoshis. The ratio has been falling as XRP lost its October range while Bitcoin held a wider range. When the ratio falls, money is leaving altcoins for Bitcoin or for cash, which is the usual pattern in a risk-off market. Altcoins rarely rally on their own while Bitcoin is under pressure.
The ETF data across crypto tells the same story. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $1.28 billion last week, with a tech-stock sell-off driving more than $1 billion of redemptions. Spot Ethereum ETFs lost $365.3 million over the same stretch. In that environment it is hard for any altcoin to find the steady institutional bid it needs to rally.
Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, held 849,327 BTC at an average cost of $75,451 as of November 1. Bitcoin at $73,124 is below that average cost, and that matters for sentiment across the whole market. When the biggest corporate buyer is underwater on its average position, the narrative that kept institutions buying through 2026 starts to weaken. A weaker Bitcoin narrative means less spillover demand for altcoins.
For XRP, the takeaway is direct. A recovery toward the $1.30 upside target almost certainly needs Bitcoin to stabilize first. A Bitcoin move back above its $75,451 corporate cost basis and toward $80,000 would ease pressure across the altcoin complex. A Bitcoin break below $70,000 would likely push XRP through $1.00 and toward its $0.9886 yearly low, because the token’s correlation with Bitcoin is high and its volatility is roughly double.
The spot XRP ETFs were supposed to give the token a structural bid. For most of 2026 they did. Cumulative net inflows reached $1.81 billion by the November 8 snapshot. The funds logged weekly inflows every week from the week ended July 17 through the week ended October 9. The record week came in late August, when the funds took in $110.49 million as XRP held around $1.40. Bitwise’s fund led that week with $59.95 million, and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ added $28.7 million.
The bid has disappeared. In the trading week of November 2–6, the funds posted a $529,500 outflow on November 2, all from Canary’s XRPC. They then logged zero net flows on November 3, 4, 5 and 6. Four straight flat sessions during a 7.1% weekly drop means no institutional buyer stepped in to absorb selling on exchanges. The last positive week was the one ended October 30, with just $4.3 million. That was the only meaningful spot crypto ETF inflow that week, but it was small in absolute terms.
Net assets have fallen even without redemptions. Total XRP ETF net assets dropped to $1.34 billion, 1.80% of XRP’s market value, down from $1.425 billion on November 2 and $1.57 billion in early October. Falling prices are doing that, not outflows. XRPC’s cumulative inflows stand at $485 million. The gap between $1.81 billion of cumulative inflows and $1.34 billion of assets shows how much the funds’ buyers are now underwater.
The Bitwise XRP ETF’s quarterly filing shows the scale of the position. As of September 30 the trust held 413,140,980.4731 XRP, worth $616,063,436 at the $1.4912 reference rate. At $1.050, that same holding is worth $433.8 million, a 30% drop in four weeks. For the nine months ended September 30, the trust recognized $44,062 of net realized losses on redemptions. That figure is small, but it shows the fund has had to sell some XRP to meet redemptions even in a period of net inflows.
The ETF complex is smaller than it looks. Bitcoin funds hold $95.9 billion. XRP funds hold $1.34 billion. Exchange flows from retail traders and large holders set XRP’s price, and the ETFs are not big enough to offset a wave of exchange selling. A return to steady daily inflows would be the clearest sign of a bottom, and November 13 marks the first anniversary of the first XRP ETF, a date that may draw attention back to the products.
The key technical event of the past two weeks was the loss of the $1.28–$1.31 support zone. XRP spent much of October trading around that band. After the token pulled back from the $1.50 range, the zone held repeatedly and supported several recovery attempts. It was the floor of the market for a month.
That floor gave way at the end of October. On October 29 XRP fell 6.84%, from $1.3257 to $1.2348, closing below the band for the first time. The token then bounced. It closed November 3 at $1.2763 and November 4 at $1.3048, after tagging $1.3391 intraday. That move took price back into the underside of the broken zone. The retest failed. On November 5 XRP collapsed 7.46% to $1.2075, and old support became new resistance.
That is the textbook bearish sequence: break, retest, rejection. Once a range floor flips to resistance, the next leg usually runs toward the next major support. Since the November 5 rejection, XRP has dropped through $1.20, then $1.15, then $1.10. Each attempt to buy the dip has been followed by another lower low. Buyers who stepped in at $1.20 and $1.10 are now underwater, and those positions become supply on any bounce back to their entry prices.
The sequence also set the targets for the bounce. The first resistance is Monday’s $1.0976 close and the $1.10 daily pivot. Above that, the daily lower Bollinger Band sits at $1.12. It is unusual for price to trade below the lower band for this long, and it shows how stretched the move is. The hourly 200-period EMA at $1.18 is the next level. Above that, the $1.28–$1.31 zone is the major target, because reclaiming it would erase the October breakdown.
The upside target for this forecast is $1.30, in the middle of that zone. Getting there would mean a 24% rally from $1.050. It is a realistic target in a relief rally, given that XRP fell 21.6% from $1.3391 in under a week. But reaching it requires a daily close above $1.18 first.
XRP trades below every major moving average on the daily, hourly and 15-minute charts. On the hourly chart, the 20-period EMA sits at $1.09, the 50-period at $1.11 and the 200-period at $1.18. All three are stacked in bearish order, with the shortest on the bottom and the longest on top. The 15-minute chart shows the same bearish stack. No time frame has turned up, which means there is no short-term buying pressure to build a bounce on.
The daily Bollinger Bands frame how far price has moved. The lower band is at $1.12, the middle band (the 20-day simple average) at $1.26, and the upper band at $1.40. With price at $1.050, XRP sits 6% below the lower band. Prices that close outside the band usually snap back toward it, which gives the short-term trade some upside, but that is a statistical tendency and not a signal on its own. In a strong downtrend, price can ride below the lower band for days.
Momentum is extreme. Daily RSI at 26.5 is below the 30 oversold line, and the four-hour RSI was at 30.78 on Monday’s close. Oversold readings tell traders that the selling has been intense, not that it has ended. RSI is still falling, so momentum is still getting worse. A bottom signal would need RSI to stop falling while price makes a new low, a bullish divergence. That has not happened yet.
The 20-day average at $1.26 matters for the medium-term view. It sits just below the $1.28–$1.31 resistance band, so the two levels reinforce each other. A rally that reached $1.26 would meet both the average and the old support zone, which is why $1.30 marks the realistic top for a relief move. Above $1.30, the upper band at $1.40 lines up with the October 10 close of $1.4020 and the level XRP traded at a month ago.
For now the moving averages all point the same way. A stack this clean only flips after a meaningful base forms. The first sign would be a close above the hourly 20-period EMA at $1.09. The confirmation would be a daily close above $1.18, the hourly 200-period EMA.
With $1.07502 broken, XRP’s next supports are close and important. The first is the $1.00 round number. Psychological levels like $1 often draw both buyers and stop orders. A test of $1.00 will likely trigger a burst of volatility either way, as buyers defend it and leveraged longs set stops just below it.
The second support is the 52-week low at $0.9886, just 1.1% under $1.00. That is the floor of XRP’s yearly range. A clean daily close below $0.9886 would put the token at its lowest level in more than a year and break the range that has held since late 2025. At that point the market would have to look for support from older price history, which sits much lower.
Sentiment has been building toward a sub-$1 test for months. Earlier this year, prediction markets put a 59% probability on XRP trading below $1 before the end of 2026. With the token at $1.050 and seven weeks left in the year, that outcome is close. Markets often trade toward the scenario the crowd expects, then reverse once it happens, as the selling runs out of sellers. A quick dip under $1 that reverses would be a classic capitulation signal.
The distance from $1.050 to $0.9886 is 5.8%. At XRP’s current volatility, that is one bad session. Last week’s daily ranges averaged around 4% and touched more than 9% on November 5. A Bitcoin break below $70,000 or a hawkish PPI on Friday could push XRP through both levels in a single day.
Traders should treat $1.00–$0.9886 as one support zone, not two separate levels. If buyers hold that zone on a closing basis, it gives the market a defined floor and a reason for a relief rally toward $1.12 and $1.18. If the zone breaks, the next leg would probably run toward $0.90, and the bearish thesis would extend into December.
XRP’s supply structure adds pressure that Bitcoin does not face. Ripple runs an on-ledger escrow program set up in 2017 that unlocks up to 1 billion XRP on the first of each month. The company releases the tokens in tranches, often 500 million, 400 million and 100 million, then returns a large share of whatever it does not use back into new escrow contracts. Ripple executed its November release on schedule, moving 1 billion XRP on November 1.
How much of each release reaches the market matters more than the headline figure. Ripple has historically re-locked 60% to 80% of each monthly unlock. From 2018 through 2026, net escrow reduction averaged about 221 million XRP a month, not 1 billion. That still adds up. It works out to an annual circulating-supply increase of 2% to 4%, a steady dilution that Bitcoin, with its fixed issuance schedule, does not carry. In a falling market, that steady new supply weighs on price, because there is less demand to absorb it.
On September 1, after that month’s unlock, about 31.28 billion XRP remained in escrow, or 31.3% of the original 100 billion supply. Releases in October and November will have reduced that number further, depending on how much Ripple returned. With 63.52 billion XRP circulating, the escrow balance is still nearly half the circulating float. Any change in how Ripple manages releases would move the market.
The escrow is also tied to regulation. The CLARITY Act’s proposed definition of a mature blockchain includes a 20% ownership threshold. Ripple’s escrow holdings sit well above that level, so the company would need to reduce its control to help XRP qualify. Disclosures in ETF filings have also referred to scenarios in which Ripple could direct additional escrowed XRP to support liquidity for stablecoins and currency pairs, but only if US regulatory clarity materializes. That makes the bill a supply event as well as a classification event.
For price, the escrow is a slow background pressure, not a sudden shock. The next unlock lands December 1. Traders watch the share that gets re-locked. A smaller re-lock would add supply into a market already short of buyers.
For most of 2026, the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act was the main bullish catalyst for XRP. The bill would set a federal market-structure framework for digital assets and would give XRP a clearer non-security status. On May 14 the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15–9, a bipartisan vote that sent XRP above $1.50. The bill was placed on the Senate calendar on June 1.
Since then it has stalled. In July, the Senate was short of the 60 votes needed to move the bill, with about 51 confirmed or likely yes votes ahead of the August recess. A debate over a new ethics provision limiting officials’ crypto ties held it up further. The Banking and Agriculture committee texts had to be merged. The bill has not reached a final Senate floor vote, and recent reports describe it as postponed while XRP trades near its 52-week low.
The midterms change the outlook again. Democrats won both chambers of Congress. Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the most prominent critics of the crypto industry in Congress, is expected to chair the Senate Banking Committee from January 2027. That would put a skeptic in charge of the committee that writes market-structure rules. The bill can still move in the lame-duck session before the new Congress is seated, but that window is short and crowded with budget and spending deadlines.
For XRP the timing is the problem. The market priced a chunk of the CLARITY upside into the token during the May rally, then gave it back as the bill stalled. If the bill fails to pass before January, a Warren-led Banking Committee would likely restart the process with tighter terms or let it sit. That would leave XRP without its main regulatory catalyst well into 2027.
A surprise lame-duck vote is the main upside wildcard. Passage before year-end would trigger a sharp short-covering rally, because the market has largely written off the bill’s near-term chances. That scenario would likely carry XRP through the $1.30 target toward $1.40 quickly. But on current evidence, passage before January is a low-probability event, and traders should not build positions around it.
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The gap between Ripple’s corporate progress and XRP’s price has rarely been wider. Ripple Payments has expanded into a broad fiat and stablecoin infrastructure business and has processed more than $100 billion of transaction volume across 60 countries. The company closed a $200 million debt financing to expand Ripple Prime, its institutional brokerage platform, and has added Coinbase Derivatives futures on Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and XRP for institutional clients.
Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin topped $2 billion in market value, with more than $1 billion issued on the XRP Ledger. In December 2025 Ripple received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to charter Ripple National Trust Bank. The company has also announced partnerships with Japanese financial institutions including Mizuho Bank and SMBC Nikko to expand XRP Ledger adoption, and joined a Treasury tokenization pilot with JPMorgan, Mastercard and Ondo.
On-chain activity is holding up. The XRP Ledger added 7,934 new wallets on November 1, the sixth-highest daily total of 2026. In early November, the network activated the fixCleanup3_4_0 amendment, which separates minting and burning permissions for issued tokens. That is a security improvement for stablecoins and tokenized assets, which are the use cases Ripple is pushing hardest.
None of this has lifted the token. The disconnect has a few causes. Much of Ripple’s payments volume does not require holding XRP for any length of time, so it does not translate into lasting demand. RLUSD growth is a dollar product, not an XRP product. And institutional partnerships tend to show up in token prices only when the broader crypto market is rising. In a risk-off market, investors sell the liquid asset, XRP, not the private company, Ripple.
Over the long term, that business growth creates a foundation for recovery. When the macro pressure eases and Bitcoin stabilizes, XRP has a stronger real-world use story than most altcoins. But that story works on a timeline of quarters, not days. In the near term, the token will trade on rates, Bitcoin and ETF flows.
Since the ETFs are not absorbing supply, exchange flows from retail traders and large holders now set XRP’s price. The heavy volume on the way down, with $2.19 billion over 24 hours and Monday’s 471.28 million XRP in daily turnover, points to large holders and leveraged traders selling into weakness. When a token loses a month-long range floor, the traders who bought the range unwind together, and that is what the October 29 to November 10 sequence looks like.
Leverage makes the moves bigger. Crypto derivatives markets let traders hold positions many times their capital. When price drops through a cluster of stop orders, forced liquidations add sell orders at market, which pushes price lower and triggers the next layer of liquidations. The 7.46% drop on November 5 had the look of that kind of cascade. Tuesday’s fall through $1.07502 likely triggered another round of long liquidations.
That same mechanism can work in reverse. After six straight down days and an RSI at 26.5, the market likely carries a growing number of short positions. Short sellers who entered between $1.20 and $1.10 have profits to protect. A sharp move back above $1.10 would force some of them to buy to cover, and a squeeze could take XRP to $1.18 in a single session. Relief rallies in oversold altcoins are often fast and violent for exactly this reason.
The buyers who could stabilize the market are known. ETF investors are the most important, and a return to daily inflows would be the signal. Long-term holders who use $1.00 as an accumulation level are a second group. Large holders who sold at $1.30 could also return near the yearly low. Each would leave a visible footprint: positive ETF flow days, falling exchange balances, and higher closes on rising volume.
Right now none of those signals are present. The ETFs are flat, prices are closing near the lows, and every bounce has been sold. Until at least one of those changes, the burden of proof sits with the bulls.
Three paths stand out over the next several weeks. In the bear path, Friday’s PPI comes in hot, the 50bp Fed case gains ground, and Bitcoin breaks below $70,000. XRP would then slide through $1.00 and the $0.9886 yearly low and head toward $0.90. In that case, the December 1 escrow unlock would add supply into a weak market, and the CLARITY Act would likely be pushed into the new Congress. This path is the most likely if the macro tape stays hostile.
In the base path, XRP tests the $1.00–$0.9886 zone and holds on a closing basis. A capitulation dip under $1 that reverses quickly would set a floor. The token would then bounce toward $1.12 and $1.18 as shorts cover and oversold conditions unwind. In this scenario XRP spends the rest of November in a $1.00–$1.18 range, waiting for the Fed decision on December 9 and the CPI on December 10.
In the bull path, the US data cools, with soft PPI and calmer retail sales, and Fed pricing shifts back toward a single 25bp hike. Bitcoin reclaims $75,451 and pushes toward $80,000. XRP ETFs record their first inflow days in weeks around the November 13 anniversary. XRP then clears $1.18 and runs into the $1.26–$1.31 zone, where the 20-day average meets the broken October support. That is where the $1.30 target sits. A surprise lame-duck CLARITY Act vote would be an accelerant, pushing the token toward $1.40.
The risk-reward at $1.050 is lopsided in the near term but more balanced over the next month. Downside to $0.9886 is 5.8%. Upside to $1.30 is 24%. The odds favor a test of the lower zone first, but the payoff from a relief rally is larger than the distance to support. That favors waiting for a confirmed reaction at $1.00 rather than buying the falling price.
XRP is bearish in the near term. The token fell to $1.050 on Tuesday, down 4.3% from Monday’s $1.0976 close, after breaking Monday’s $1.07502 low. It has lost 19.5% since the November 4 close of $1.3048, sits 71% below its $3.6618 all-time high, and has a market value of $66.50 billion. The October CPI hit every risk asset: core at 0.3% for a third straight month, a 15% probability of a 50bp Fed hike on December 9, the 2-year Treasury yield up 19bp to 4.736%, and Bitcoin down to $73,124, below Strategy’s $75,451 average cost. The spot XRP ETFs have stopped buying, with a $529,500 outflow and four flat sessions last week, and net assets have fallen to $1.34 billion against $1.81 billion of cumulative inflows. The CLARITY Act has stalled, and Warren is expected to chair Senate Banking from January. The token trades below every moving average on every time frame and below the $1.12 lower Bollinger Band, and the November 5 rejection turned the $1.28–$1.31 zone into resistance. A daily close below the $1.00–$0.9886 support zone opens $0.90. Against that, daily RSI at 26.5 shows the market is deeply oversold, and Ripple’s business keeps growing, with more than $100 billion of payments volume, RLUSD above $2 billion and a conditional national trust bank charter. A hold at $1.00, soft US data, a Bitcoin recovery above $75,451, and a return of ETF inflows would drive a short-covering rally through $1.12 and $1.18 to the $1.30 upside target, with $1.40 as the extended target if the CLARITY Act moves in the lame-duck session. A daily close above $1.18 invalidates the bearish view.
