XRP traded at $0.9566 on the four-hour Binance chart on November 15, extending a slide from about $1.42 in mid-October, as a closely followed analyst warned the token could fall to $0.60 if Bitcoin makes another lower low.
Egrag Crypto, the pseudonymous chartist whose cycle work on XRP is widely tracked in the crypto community, revised his previous-cycle fractal and said a weekly close below a key support line would weaken the setup. He still expects a possible relief bounce after 11 straight days of selling.
In his updated reading, $1.0359 to $1.1795 is a potential recovery zone, with $1.25 needed for a stronger bullish confirmation. The downside scenario runs to $0.70 to $0.60, but only if Bitcoin prints a fresh low and the bearish fractal breaks. The analyst said he remains committed to the pattern while adjusting it to current price action.
His revision centers on where the prior cycle's fractal should begin. He argued it should not start at the previous cycle low, noting that the earlier pattern never broke its lows while XRP now threatens important structural support. A weekly close below the red line on his chart, he said, would weaken the pattern.
November has been brutal. XRP is down 19.2% this month, matching November 2018 and trailing only November 2019, which lost 23.6%, for the second-worst November since 2013. The historical record for the month is unusually lopsided: the average November return is positive 78.3%, while the median is negative 9.1%. Egrag said he remains bullish and expects one major move but gave no timing target.
Momentum gauges on the four-hour chart point to continued selling pressure below $1.00. The latest candle opened at $0.9672, peaked at $0.9794, dipped to $0.9516 and closed at $0.9566, a decline of 1.09%. Volume reached 24.61 million XRP, with activity picking up during the drop and the rebound.
The relative strength index stood at 36.44, above its 31.78 moving average but well below the neutral 50 line. The MACD remained bearish, with its line at -0.0343 under the signal line at -0.0317 and a histogram of -0.0026. XRP has now lost the $1.20, $1.10 and $1.00 levels since it was rejected near $1.32 on November 4.
On the chart, $0.95 is immediate support, with $0.93 next if selling persists. A push back above $1.00 could open tests of $1.05 and $1.10.
A separate note from the same analyst, published a day earlier, framed the current weakness as a possible prelude to a much larger advance. He pointed to three descending trendlines tied to past recoveries, in 2020 and 2023, each of which involved a sharp downward wick near resistance and the 21-period exponential moving average before prices recovered. The third trendline now converges with ascending support near the psychologically important $1 level.
That analysis put major support at $0.75 to $0.85 and laid out Fibonacci extension targets of $6.81, $10.30, $16.17 and $31.64, with no confirmed timeline attached. The analyst stressed that a downward wick alone would not confirm a reversal and that XRP must reclaim the descending trendline and the 21-period EMA with conviction. A sustained break of support, he added, could trigger further losses.
Key levels to watch
Note: Levels are drawn from the analyst's published charts and the four-hour Binance data cited in the report.
The stakes are straightforward for holders and traders. XRP's failure to hold $1.00 has flipped a round-number psychological level into resistance, and the token's direction now hinges heavily on Bitcoin's next move. If the largest cryptocurrency sets another lower low, the fractal scenario points to a slide toward $0.60, a drop of roughly 37% from current levels. If Bitcoin stabilizes, the analyst's roadmap leaves room for a relief rally into the $1.03-$1.18 band, though a convincing turn would require a close above $1.25.
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