XRP traded at $1.15 on Sunday, down almost 3% as a broad crypto selloff deepened, with one closely followed chart analyst describing the token as "a falling knife" and warning that a move toward $1 remains plausible.
Austin Hilton, whose market commentary is widely circulated among retail holders, said conditions across digital assets have turned "extremely bearish." His central argument is structural rather than sentiment-driven: buyers with capital are sitting out, leaving little bullish liquidity to absorb selling pressure. With sellers meeting limited resistance, XRP has been able to drift lower without the sharp rebounds that typically mark capitulation.
Hilton has said in multiple public posts and videos that the $1 area is a realistic target, and at $1.15 that level is no longer a distant scenario. Bitcoin's slide to around $75,000 has reinforced the risk-off tone across the market.
The technical picture offers a mixed read. XRP is trading beneath its 200-day moving average, which sits at $1.25 — a level that in Hilton's reading has historically not been a bad place for long-horizon buyers to accumulate. He does not rule out further declines, but argues that for investors measuring returns over years, the gap between entering at $1.20 and at $1.90 shrinks considerably against targets of $3 to $5.
On shorter timeframes, his charts show buy signals forming at current prices. Comparable signals in past cycles preceded gains of varying size, though he cautions that past performance does not guarantee a repeat.
Note: Historical gain figures refer to past instances of similar chart signals and are not projections.
Hilton also points out that no fresh sell signal has appeared at these levels, which he treats as a constructive sign. "I think we are close to the bottom from XRP charting standpoint and with all the other assets," he said.
The analysis splits holders into two camps. Long-term investors, in his framing, are less focused on squeezing out the best possible entry and more focused on whether the asset reaches their eventual valuation target. Short-term traders, by contrast, need cleaner timing and lean more heavily on chart confirmation, since the historical record shows XRP capable of large percentage moves within relatively narrow windows once signals align.
For the broader market, the significance lies in what the absence of bid-side liquidity implies. In a market where buyers are unwilling to step in, price discovery happens on thin volume and declines can overshoot fundamental narratives. XRP's position below its 200-day average puts it in territory that trend followers typically treat as bearish, even as contrarian buyers watch for the moment selling exhausts itself.
The token's next test is whether the $1 handle holds. A break below it would mark a psychological threshold that could accelerate outflows, while a stabilization above current levels would give credibility to the view that a local floor is forming.
