Large XRP holders pushed roughly 691 million tokens onto Binance in a single 24-hour stretch, the heaviest one-day inflow to the exchange since 2024, according to blockchain data tracked by CryptoQuant. With the token changing hands near $1.3 at the time, the transferred assets were worth about $900 million.
The scale of the move has put short-term selling risk back at the center of the XRP debate. Deposits to an exchange generally precede a sale, and this batch landed while the price was already losing ground.
It is not an isolated day. The 90-day moving average of daily whale transfers into exchanges has climbed past $100 million, a level not seen in almost six months. That average now sits above the peaks recorded during the severe correction of February 2025, a comparison that has sharpened concern among market watchers about how much supply large wallets are preparing to unload.
The price action has been equally uncomfortable. XRP retested a multi-month floor around $1.08, a level last touched on August 20, and slipped below recent local lows. A transfer to an exchange is not proof of a sale, but the overlap of heavy inflows and a sharp decline has left traders defensive.
A second data set from the same analytics firm pulls in the opposite direction. CryptoQuant's exchange scarcity index for XRP on Binance swung from negative territory through September and October to 2.1 in early November, the highest reading since 2022. A positive reading means more coins are leaving the exchange than arriving, shrinking the tradable float.
On November 4, users withdrew 418.5 million XRP from Binance, worth just under $540 million at the time. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost called it the largest outflow day in nine months, exceeding even October 29, when 315 million XRP left the venue in the wake of an attack on the exchange. The analyst cautioned that some of that movement may reflect transfers between Binance's own wallets rather than fresh buying interest, and that only the following days would show whether the trend held.
Taken together, the two flows describe a market where coins are moving between venues and into self-custody rather than being bought outright. Coins pulled off an exchange are typically not queued for a quick sale, yet a wallet reshuffle after a security incident produces the same on-chain footprint as accumulation.
Demand from regulated funds has been absent. US spot XRP ETFs recorded no day of net inflows in the first week of November, according to SoSoValue data. The only money that moved was a $529,500 withdrawal from Canary Capital's XRPC fund on Monday, November 2; Tuesday through Friday were flat across every fund. Assets under management fell from $1.425 billion to $1.34 billion over the week, a decline driven almost entirely by price rather than redemptions. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $1.81 billion, and October's $18.8 million haul fell well short of September's roughly $121 million.
The institutional retreat was not specific to XRP. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed about $1.3 billion over the same week, suggesting the headwind comes from the broader market rather than from XRP's own news flow.
Note: Flow figures come from CryptoQuant and SoSoValue data; ETF assets moved mainly with price.
On the price chart, the weekly close has become the number to watch. XRP traded around $1.16 on Sunday morning, November 8, putting it on course for its weakest weekly finish since mid-August. No Sunday since August 23 had closed below $1.249. The 200-day average sits near $1.27 and the 50-day near $1.37, both above the market and therefore acting as resistance rather than support.
The $1.15 zone has now survived a second test. After a long squeeze around that level on Saturday morning, XRP dipped to $1.1489 on Kraken before closing the day at $1.162, and has since moved in a tight band between $1.154 and $1.165. A break below Saturday's low would open the way toward $1.11, with the August lows of $1.0875 and $0.985 further down. To the upside, $1.21 is the first hurdle, followed by the 200-day average and then $1.34, the high of November 4. Analysts at More Crypto Online say a bottom would need a higher low first and then a close above $1.34 to confirm.
Some large holders are buying rather than selling. Analyst Ali Martinez counted roughly 60 million XRP accumulated by whale addresses over seven days, and the number of wallets holding at least one million XRP reached its highest level of 2026 this week. Martinez also flagged social media sentiment for XRP at its weakest since July, which he reads as a possible contrarian signal, alongside an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline at $1.60 and a target of $2.10. The neckline remains about 38 percent away, making that a template for weeks or months rather than the coming days.
For investors, the signal to watch is not the next scarcity reading but the first ETF day with net inflows and a daily close above $1.21. Until then, the $1.15 level is where the week turns. Thin exchange supply can lift prices only once buyers return, and so far they have not.
