ZEC just posted the steepest drop among the top 50 cryptocurrencies and lost its spot in the top 10, with a critical network upgrade days away and key support levels crumbling fast.
The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Zcash (CRYPTO:ZEC) has recently slipped to the 11th position in market value, now sitting behind Hyperliquid (CRYPTO:HYPE) after experiencing a sharp decline of up to 5.7% in one trading session, marking the biggest drop among the top 50 cryptocurrencies. This situation raises a crucial question for anyone making a Zcash price prediction, which is how far below $1,200 the price could potentially fall.
ZEC trades around $1,198, down 3.8% over the past 24 hours and 5.8% for the week. The price has fluctuated between $1,122 and $1,233 over the past 24 hours. Notably, this downturn appears to be mainly a Zcash issue, as Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) has risen slightly by 0.1% over the same period.
Over the past month, ZEC has dropped 9.2%. However, it has still gained 134.1% over the past three months, suggesting that many holders who bought at lower prices may choose to sell amid ongoing weakness. So, just how low could ZEC go, and what factors could prevent further declines?
What Zcash Could Be Worth at Each Floor Below $1,200
Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the current price by the number of coins in circulation. Currently, ZEC’s market cap is about $20.4 billion, with about 17,021,518 coins in circulation. In comparison, Hyperliquid’s market cap stands at $20.7 billion, meaning ZEC would need to rise to around $1,217 to reclaim its spot in the top 10, if Hyperliquid’s price holds.
Rising supply affects price valuation. ZEC has a maximum supply of 21 million coins, with around 81% already in circulation. The coin’s all-time high of $3,192 occurred on its launch day in 2016 when far fewer coins were available, so at the current supply, that price would value ZEC at about $54.3 billion. Therefore, the 62.5% gap to that previous high doesn’t accurately reflect its current value.
Currently, ZEC is trading below both its 20-day average of $1,213 and its 50-day average of $1,315, indicating a downward trend in the short to medium term. The 200-day average is significantly lower, suggesting the longer-term trend may still be positive.
NU7 Could Go Live Around November 5, but Its Testnet Launch Brought Selling
The upcoming NU7 network upgrade for Zcash is projected to activate at block height 3,543,405, expected on the evening of November 5 in the Americas. This upgrade aims to reduce block times from 75 seconds to just 25 seconds.
As of October 22, the Zcash Foundation said 14 of 31 peer groups were ready, short of the required 75% quorum. However, previous NU7 milestones have been met with selling pressure. For instance, after NU7 went live on the testnet around October 6, ZEC fell from about $1,352 to a 30-day low of $1,126 by October 17.
Zcash’s Dev Fund Fight and ETF Flows Offer Little Near-Term Support
The Development Fund retains 20% of every block reward, with its current structure set to expire in November 2028. Recently, Josh Swihart, who designed the current model, proposed terminating the fund early, while other plans recommend only eliminating the 8% grants share. These discussions have yet to reach a vote, and any change would probably wait for the NU8 upgrade, which means immediate price support is unlikely.
Moreover, the flow of funds has also changed. The Grayscale Zcash ETF (NYSEARCA:ZCSH) recorded steady inflows from October 20 to October 29, including a significant $20.5 million on October 23, but then saw a $4.6 million outflow on October 30.
Zcash Price Prediction: How Low Could ZEC Go Before Buyers Step In?
Looking ahead, ZEC could revisit its October low of $1,126, especially since it dipped to $1,122 in the past 24 hours. For investors, the next critical support level is $1,000, which would place ZEC’s market cap at about $17 billion. If ZEC closes below $1,000, it might target its 200-day average around $746, while a substantial market decline could push it toward the 90-day low of $481 from August 11.
To halt the downward trend, the NU7 upgrade needs to execute smoothly around November 5, inflows into ZCSH need to return, and ZEC must close above $1,217. Our longer-term view of Zcash as an investment extends beyond this selloff, but if ZEC falls below $1,126 in the week after the NU7 activation, a drop toward $1,000 would appear likely. Conversely, a close above the 50-day average of $1,315 could signal an end to the current downturn.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst and the editor of 24/7 Wall St.'s Crypto Desk, where he covers Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Solana and the altcoins investors search for most. His work focuses on price levels, spot ETF flows, on-chain data and the regulatory decisions that move crypto markets, written so a first-time buyer and a seasoned trader can both use it.
Sam has written about crypto professionally since 2019 and has published more than 2,000 articles. Before joining 24/7 Wall St., he wrote for crypto media outlets and Web3 companies and ghostwrote for crypto founders and token launches. His analysis is syndicated on Yahoo Finance, MSN and AOL and has been cited by other crypto news sites. He also founded MacLabs Marketing, a content and personal branding agency for crypto founders and executives.
When he isn't reading charts, Sam is usually at the gym or watching One Piece, a series he maintains has better tokenomics than most altcoins.
