As we are about to enter the third year of the Spot Bitcoin [BTC] ETF being launched, it appears that BTC ETFs have a significantly stronger influence on BTC price returns than corporate Bitcoin accumulation.

According to the latest analysis by Ecoinometrics, an inflow of 10,000 BTC into spot Bitcoin ETFs corresponds to an estimated 3.2% boost in monthly Bitcoin returns. In comparison, the same amount of Bitcoin purchased by public companies contributes approximately 0.7% to monthly returns.

This suggests that ETF purchases have roughly 4.5 times the impact of corporate buying on Bitcoin’s price performance.

ETFs vs. AUM: The real winner

Adding more to this analysis, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart suggests that ETFs could surpass mutual funds in total Assets Under Management (AUM) within the next two to three years.

He said,

Their growth is only accelerating. If we stay on the same trend we’ve been on since the summer it will happen in ~two years.

Their growth is only accelerating. If we stay on the same trend we’ve been on since the summer it will happen in ~two years.

Confirming his prediction, Syeffart used a chart and highlighted that ETFs accounted for 40.21% of total fund assets as of September 2026. And given the recent growth trends, ETFs could reach the 50% mark as early as September 2028 if the three-month growth rate continues.

However, other projections estimate this milestone between November 2028 and December 2029, depending on the period considered.

At the same time, ETFs rolling 12-month growth rate have also reached 3.74% in September 2026, above the historical average of 2.78% since the 2020 COVID market bottom. This indicates that ETF adoption is expanding faster than its long-term average.

Bitcoin ETF outflow streak continues

This comes as BTC ETFs are in their outflows streak. According to Farisde Investors data, from 1st to 5th November 2026, Bitcoin ETFs saw mostly outflows. In fact, so far in November, it has already recorded $869.82 million in outflows. The only exception being on the 4th of November, when the BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of $74.6 million.

All of this happened as the price of BTC was trading at $76,102.46 after a drop of 52% in the past 24 hours.

That said, besides Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum [ETH] ETFs also recorded $272.09  in outflows, and Binance [BNB] ETFs recorded $271.01K in outflows. Meanwhile, XRP ETFs were funded by $529.51K in outflows, Solana [SOL] ETFs had $1.18M in outflows, and Hyperliquid [HYPE] ETFs also saw $7.66 million in outflows.

In short, the pattern suggests risk-off sentiment across crypto at the start of November, and not just in Bitcoin. So, given the current data, it remains to be seen whether Seyffart’s predictions turn into reality or not.

Final Summary

  • ETF demand provides a more direct and consistent source of buying pressure in the spot market.
  • From 1st to 5th November 2026, Bitcoin ETFs saw mostly outflows with price action as dropping to $76K.