The cryptocurrency market accelerated its decline over the weekend. On the morning of November 15 (Japan time), Bitcoin (BTC) fell to around $63,793 at one point, down about 6% over 24 hours. The high was around $68,420 and the low around $63,271. Selling continued after the price broke below $65,000, and it decisively fell through the $64,000 threshold. Ethereum (ETH) traded around $1,739, down about 10% over the same 24-hour period—a steeper decline than BTC.
CoinGlass's Fear & Greed Index has sunk to 12, indicating "extreme fear." While intensifying pessimism can create room for a short-term rebound, the fear level itself is not evidence of capital inflows.
Seven Consecutive Trading Days of Outflows from Spot ETFs
The weakness in supply and demand is reflected in investor fund flows. According to Farside Investors, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $185.4 million in net outflows on November 13, marking the seventh consecutive trading day of negative flows. For the week of November 9–13, outflows reached about $1.0653 billion. Of the November 13 outflows, about $143.5 million came from BlackRock's IBIT, accounting for roughly 77% of the total. While the movement of a single fund cannot be equated with the judgment of institutional investors as a whole, outflows from a major investment channel carry weight. Spot Ethereum ETFs turned to a modest inflow of $2.3 million on November 13, but posted about $398.9 million in net outflows for the week, making it difficult to say that capital has firmly returned.
What amplified the decline was the derivatives market. At the time of CoinGlass data retrieval, BTC liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled about $683.56 million, of which roughly 92% were long positions. Leveraged long positions are forcibly closed when price declines cause them to fail maintenance requirements, generating additional selling. In a situation where spot buying is thin, this selling is difficult to absorb.
Note: Prices based on CoinGlass data at time of retrieval; ETF data based on Farside Investors tallies.
Whale Profit-and-Loss Data Reveals a Divided Investor Base
On-chain analysis reveals differences in behavior among large investors by cohort. According to CryptoQuant's "Realized Profit/Loss of New and Veteran Whales," large realized losses by new whales stood out during the downturns in February and June. During the rally from late August through September, profit-taking by the same cohort increased, indicating price action sensitive to acquisition cost. In the most recent November period as well, negative bars for the new cohort line up.
Veteran whales, meanwhile, showed a different pattern. In a November 11 analysis by MorenoDV published on CryptoQuant, realized profits on November 10 reached about $293.7 million—one of the largest spikes within the 2026 range. BTC was around $73,700 at the time, meaning profits could be locked in even without a return to the year-to-date high. Cohorts with low acquisition costs are more easily motivated to protect profits, and even if loss-taking by the new cohort settles down, continued supply from veteran holders could keep upside heavy. Changes in holdings and realized profit/loss are separate indicators, and the market should be understood as one where whales adding to positions and whales taking profits coexist.
There are also differences among exchanges in how futures positions are being unwound. In a November 13 analysis by FundingVest published on CryptoQuant showing 30-day rate of change in open interest by exchange, OKX was up 17%, Bybit up 14%, and Gate.io up 13%, while Binance was down 3% and Deribit down 17%. The pattern shows that even as deleveraging progresses on one exchange, positions accumulate on others, and Deribit's decline is said to partly reflect the impact of maturity settlements.
Reading too much into the dollar-denominated decline in open interest is also inadvisable. BTC open interest fell 7.48% in dollar terms over 24 hours to about $43.36 billion, but the decline in BTC-denominated terms was only 1.54%. When prices fall, the dollar-denominated value shrinks even if contract quantities remain the same, so contract quantities have not declined as much as the apparent rate of decrease suggests.
Macro Environment, Supply-Demand, and Conditions for Calling a Bottom
The macro environment also makes it difficult to support buying. The U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on November 10 showed headline inflation up 0.4% month-on-month and core up 0.3%. In U.S. markets on November 13, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell, and the dollar was near a 19-month high. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield also rose sharply for the week. For BTC, which generates no interest, high rates and a strong dollar are headwinds for attracting investment capital. However, the three major U.S. stock indices rose for the week, so the weakness in BTC cannot be explained by an overall stock market decline alone. On the weekend, U.S. stocks, bonds, and spot ETFs were closed, and the sharp drop on the morning of November 15 may reflect selling amplified amid a funding shortfall carried over from the weekdays rather than the result of new ETF outflows occurring at that time.
Structural weakness in supply and demand also remains. CryptoQuant's 30-day indicator of estimated demand stood at about minus 284,000 BTC as of the November 13 observation. This is not the difference in actual trading volume but an estimate based on changes in issuance and long-term dormant supply, and short-term liquidations must be distinguished from longer-term demand shortfalls.
What market participants are watching is whether, after the concentration of selling subsides, more buyers will emerge willing to hold BTC at that price. If loss-taking by new whales weakens, profit-taking by veterans also settles down, and buying returns to ETFs and spot trading, the case for a bottom formation strengthens. The unwinding of futures positions can be a step toward that, but it does not substitute for proof of recovering spot demand. Some voices point to weak buying appetite among institutional investors and declining funds remaining on exchanges, and while a short-term rebound is acknowledged, a cautious view prevails until sustained buying demand is confirmed.
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